F1 2016 pre-season testing

[Mr.G]

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... funny theories like if F1 teams would be stupid enough to NOT hide their true potential. ...

What I don't understand is, why people think that team hide their true potential. Surely they don't run on the edge but it's from different reasons not for hiding the potential. More like to be sure the systems are OK, the engine will survive, or they need constant lap times due to airo... Maybe I'm wrong but for me the test are planed weeks ahead with scheduled test/checks/runs/fuel loads/sensors...
During the race simulations they set some target delta/lap time and stick with it... And qualification simulations - what's good for make a simulation if you carry 20kg+ of fuel?!? The tires degrades differently, car feels differently trough corners...

If the team is good is good they more likely scare the others by showing them the pace instead of hiding it... If you show the pace in test what's the disadvantage for you? It's not like the other team will think something to close the gap in two weeks. It take's several weeks to manufacture the parts...

[dot235]

That whole "hiding" and "sandbagging" thing is hugely blown out of proportions.

Of course there is some of it, but unless you are terrible at math I don't consider using a different tyres or going for a longer stint a sandbagging.
And as for the race simulations, there is very little room for manipulations once you look at all the data with clear mind.

The testing is NOT about blindly looking at the timesheets, but it gives you a big chunk of valuable info if you know where to look and how to interpret it.

[hollowBallistix]

Does a team really need to push 100% when collecting certain data ? For example, I guess Mercedes have a good grasp of what their engine is capable of doing, in terms of outright power & performance, so if they ran with heavier fuel loads, with an engine that was capped at maybe 90% of it's true potential, all the aero work & analasis would still be valuable even if they had another 10% spare surely ?

[namao]

What do you think about this "fastest-car order" for Melbourne 2016 based on what we saw at testing?

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Williams
4. Force India
5. Toro Rosso
6. Redbull
7. Sauber
8. McLaren
9. Renault
10. Manor
11. Haas

[Mr.G]

Does a team really need to push 100% when collecting certain data ? For example, I guess Mercedes have a good grasp of what their engine is capable of doing, in terms of outright power & performance, so if they ran with heavier fuel loads, with an engine that was capped at maybe 90% of it's true potential, all the aero work & analasis would still be valuable even if they had another 10% spare surely ?

Aero yes, tires, fuel consumptions no...

[George-Jung]

What do you think about this "fastest-car order" for Melbourne 2016 based on what we saw at testing?

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Williams
4. Force India
5. Toro Rosso
6. Redbull
7. Sauber
8. McLaren
9. Renault
10. Manor
11. Haas

Well.. to be honest, I think you have orderd them very needly underneath each other.. It would be more interesting to read why you came to this order.

[Chuckjr]

Is the tire pressure increase from Pirelli 100% for sure? It seems between that and the quail change there's a last ditch effort to level the field by whatever means necessary. These sudden changes could lop off the possible .3 to .7 second advantage Merc may still carry and also squelch these all Merc front rows and pacing the field thereafter...

I am also wondering if Merc's exclusive use of the medium compound was partly an attempt to counter any such efforts--possibly they knew these kinda nutty things were in the pipeline. Just a guess.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Is the tire pressure increase from Pirelli 100% for sure? It seems between that and the quail change there's a last ditch effort to level the field by whatever means necessary. These sudden changes could lop off the possible .3 to .7 second advantage Merc may still carry and also squelch these all Merc front rows and pacing the field thereafter...

Possible, if the rule is applied only for Mercedes.

I am also wondering if Merc's exclusive use of the medium compound was partly an attempt to counter any such efforts--possibly they knew these kinda nutty things were in the pipeline. Just a guess.

Because of the change in tyre selection regulation and the fact that last year, 9 circuits had Medium tyres, Mercedes is trying to take Mediums for most circuits this year. A strategy to be faster and to have lessen the pit stops. If their car gives the highly optimized performance on Medium, probably a performance as close to Soft as possible that a competitive team is using, then they would be in much stronger situation to win the races. Tomorrow's revelation from Pirelli about tyre choices, would clearly tell if Mercedes is counting heavily on Medium performance. At least, that was the case in Winter Testing.
Last year, many teams, with softs, failed to beat the times that Mercedes was doing on Medium. The gap between Mercedes and Ferrari was much larger on Mediums, than on Softs. So may be Mercedes is optimizing their Medium usage to further the strength there, at some kind of a compromise that they clearly know is going to bear fruits. The SuperSoft and UltraSoft might just be reduced to only Q3 of qualifying and might not be used in Races at all.

[Gaz.]

I follow McLaren and despite them openly stating they werent chasing performance and that the car wont run in true 2016 spec until Melbourne already people are writing them off. Its testing. No one outside the individual teams "knows" anything solid.

Of course they are being written off. If you remember when they announced their partnership with Honda they (and Alonso when he joined) said they would push for the championship in 2016. They still haven't tested their Australia spec PU in the car. With limited testing, the days of glory runs and sand bagging are pretty much over as the teams just do not have the time to waste. Due to the tyre logo colours we know what they are using and those that did race sims would have had to have full or close to full tanks, those that didn't do race sims simply were not ready.

There won't be any surprises on 19th March in my opinion, other than FOM being shocked to the core that their qualifying format is as good as a wet weekend in Swansea.

[CBeck113]

Why should the teams go 100% in testing when they can't even do so in the races? Only in qualifying will they push hard, otherwise it's driving to a certain lap time....

[IamLegend]

F1 metrics' take on testing:
https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2016/03 ... orm-guide/

tldr:
mercedes
ferrari + 0.2-0.5s
williams + 1.1-1.3s
red bull + 1.0-1.6s
toro rosso + 1.2-1.4s
force india + 1.3-1.5s
renault + 1.6-1.8s
mclaren + 2.2-2.6s
sauber + 2.2-2.7s
manor & haas + at least 3s

Regardless of those predictions which shouldn't be taken extremely seriously, there is some VERY interesting data collected in that article.

What kinda worries me is that if I interpret his data corretly it looks like Rosberg was on considerably longer stint than Kimi when he did that 1:23.0 on softs. It does look like Kimi was pretty much flat out on that lap. On the upside though, I'am sure Vettel could better that as well by a tenth or more.

how do you know kimi was flat out on that lap? you cant pick and choose little tidbits that you think prop up your perspective and use it right after saying these predictions shouldnt be taken seriously : )

So according to the genius behind the blog; a Toro Rosso on 2015 ferrari egine is quicker than the SFi on the 2016 Merc engine? Sorry to say, I don't share the same lackadaisical insight on the middle order as him.

[Phil]

What I don't understand is, why people think that team hide their true potential. Surely they don't run on the edge but it's from different reasons not for hiding the potential.

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If the team is good is good they more likely scare the others by showing them the pace instead of hiding it... If you show the pace in test what's the disadvantage for you? It's not like the other team will think something to close the gap in two weeks. It take's several weeks to manufacture the parts...

I feel you are asking the wrong question here. The question is not "what good is it to hide your true pace?" - it's rather "what good is it to show your true pace?" What advantage is there?

As long as the team can correlate the data between what they built in the factory and the simulation they ran and their on track performance, why show more than they need to?

As for reasons why Mercedes [or insert any other dominant team in the history of F1] would want to mask their true potential throughout a season is rather simple: The best way to secure that the formula that you are winning stays unchanged is by not winning and demoralizing your competitors by killing them race by race with huge margins, but by winning by just enough to keep them thinking they are close enough. Mercedes has been under a lot of pressure the past 2 seasons because of their dominance, as other teams and the other engine manufacturers have been arguing for more open regulations to close that gap. By keeping it close, there is less pressure to change something because the other teams feel that the existing gap can be closed.

Why hide pace in testing? For the same reasons really. If you already demoralize your competitors now, you're just forcing them to go back to the drawing board and find better solutions. Better to let them think they are close when in reality, they are maybe not.

Not saying that Mercedes is doing that. Only they know what they are showing and what they are not. This equally applies to all other teams like Ferrari too. They too wouldn't want to show more than they have to; Lets assume they are quicker than they seem - by showing their true hand, might force Mercedes to speed up development or re-think some of their updates. It might also force them to come up with more strict rules toward their drivers so that they don't get tangled up while Ferrari or any other competitor gets too close.

[ferkan]

Formula 1 is not staying the same though. Next year, new rules. Completely different aero rules apply, and while PUs stay the same that is no longer differentional factor with Mercedes and Ferrari. Plus, there is no more tokens for next year therefore everything will be pretty open. I actually think Merc will look to completely decimate field as early as possible. Not only because that would be brilliant closing to domination in 2014-2016 Formula 1, but also because as early they get maximum amount of points the earlier they can start to work on next years car.

Your reasoning might have applied last two years, but not now.

[Vasconia]

I appreciate the links too, much easier to watch from the youtube app on the mobile phone.

Ps: i really enjoyed pretesting. Love the speculation, the analyzing, the intepretating of lap times. None other like it. Once the season starts, the speculation stops and the tension is all over. Come Melbourne, the illusions are over.

Count me in ! I also love pre-testing, its funny to speculate and try to understand all the data around the net.

About the eternal discussion "this is pre-season and no one knows a sh*t", I think that its very exaggerated, perhaps we have no idea but the teams know more or less where they are. The can have some doubts with 1 or 2 tenths but in general they know where the other teams are.

[Vasconia]

Tremendous improvement from Force India, biggest winners since last year by far.

FI seems strong every pre-season but then the lack of updates condemn them. It's a pity because its a team that surely knows how to do its "winter job".