F1 2016 pre-season testing

[TheScrutineer]

Some interesting observations after Barcelona testing and predictions...

http://dmanf1.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/ob ... after.html

[dot235]

What do you think about this "fastest-car order" for Melbourne 2016 based on what we saw at testing?

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Williams
4. Force India
5. Toro Rosso
6. Redbull
7. Sauber
8. McLaren
9. Renault
10. Manor
11. Haas

That's only speculation of course, but I would put Haas above Manor and as for McLaren Renault Sauber I reckon it it could be very close between them yet I would bet that McL will be the one to lose that trio battle. My guess (speculation) is that Renault still has considerably better EPU than Honda, looks like they made some real progress eventually.

So yeah, McLaren is also moving forward but when you put it next to other teams it doesn't look so great anymore imho. The competition this year in 3-6th row is most prob gonna be very tough while futher down Sauber gets the new C35-Ferrari which is arguably a match for new Mercedes EPU and Renault had a decent Lotus car to work on with their revived EPU which doesn't look bad anymore either and what needs to be said they obviously now have total control over it being the manufacturer team and having their own car. As bad as it sounds, my bet for McLaren is 9th place. And that's already given that there won't be any surprises from Haas with the help of Ferrari. Who knows, it might end up being what Toro Rosso to Red Bull is, in which case I can't imagine them being at the back of the grid.

[GoranF1]

Mclaren has considerbly better drivers than Renault an Sauber.

[flickerf1]

Mclaren has considerbly better drivers than Renault an Sauber.

Agreed, but the drivers from Renault and Sauber are still young. They've yet to grow into their prime. Jenson and Fernando both started way back in 2000 and 2001. Don't write them off yet.

[digitalrurouni]

Not sure if this has been shared already but I was waiting with much anticipation for this: https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2016/03 ... orm-guide/

[Gerhardsa]

Mclaren has considerbly better drivers than Renault an Sauber.

Agreed, but the drivers from Renault and Sauber are still young. They've yet to grow into their prime. Jenson and Fernando both started way back in 2000 and 2001. Don't write them off yet.

I suspect that McLaren might (if this 2016 car doesn't have enough potential) switch focus to 2017 very very early, whilst still continuing to improve the PU as much as possible. I have this sneaky feeling McLaren might be right at the sharp end of the grid in 2017, and with drivers like Button and Alonso... I suspect the Vettel/Kimi &Hamilton/Rosberg are the best combo's in F1 "theory" will be thoroughly tested.

[Vasconia]

I think they will be fighting it out with Williams for 3rd place. DR seems to support that. We may see the oddball podium from Williams/RB throughout the year and possibly one from TR or FI early in the season.

Yes, it depends on how much Renault has improved its engine. Because I think that RB has built a better chasis this year and he should fight with Williams, as you have said.

I dont know what will happen with Mercedes, but behind them we could have a great battle.

[henra]

I dont know what will happen with Mercedes, but behind them we could have a great battle.

Hmmm, dunno, I rather see a battle between Ferrari ans Merc with still a slight advantage for Merc and then a battle between Williams&RB followed by a battle between FI and TR. And then comes the rest.

[Vasconia]

I dont know what will happen with Mercedes, but behind them we could have a great battle.

Hmmm, dunno, I rather see a battle between Ferrari ans Merc with still a slight advantage for Merc and then a battle between Williams&RB followed by a battle between FI and TR. And then comes the rest.

TR with the Ferrari engine will be very strong, I see them fighting with RB, Williams and perhaps FI, at least during the first races.

[Phil]

Alright first of all you need to turn up the engine to make sure it won't go to flames during qualy.
So how do you hide your pace with EPU running max power?

That's the problem right there. They don't, because they weren't really doing qualy runs. They might use different engine modes during different stages to test its reliability and how power delivery is (although they would know that from extensive dyno testing, as well as data from last year). In the end, the team is not interested to set record lap times because you don't get points for that in testing. You want to make sure your aero works the way it should and how your car performs with the tyres and how that degredation is, as also testing those new parts they have been bolting on to get a better understanding in what has which effect. They could be doing that on engine maps where performance is reduced somewhat, so that the drivers are all just pushing to the limits of that map.

It's always good to have untapped performance ready. Using it all the time would simply put unnecessary strain on your engine that has to last multiple races, but if your engines is nearing the end of its expected mileage, it's good to know you have untapped reserves there. So again, I really don't see the point in going all out in testing.

You don't get points in testing.

[digitalrurouni]

So this is going to be a noob question but Merc racked up so many miles in testing. Do we know how many engines, chassis and gearboxes they used for the test? I think they used 2 engines - 1 for each test, 2 gearboxes - 1 for each test and 2 chassis 1 for each test just split between the 2 drivers. That sound about right? And if I am not mistaken I think the gearbox conked out in the last test when Lewis was in the car right? And I also think it would be right to assume that engine allocation this year is 5 engines for the entirety of the season for each driver right? And the engines used in the test don't count against that allocation I would think.

I think this year there will be tracks especially street circuits like Singapore where Ferrari will reign superior and even Moncao as well. The other non-street circuits Mercedes will have the advantage. Ferrari are known to be easier on the tires so on hot temperature circuits once again Ferrari will reign over the Mercedes. Unless Mercedes really went all out and knowing full well what their weaknesses were from last year they nailed it down and made a 'perfect' car. I highly doubt that is even possible IMHO.

[flickerf1]

So this is going to be a noob question but Merc racked up so many miles in testing. Do we know how many engines, chassis and gearboxes they used for the test? I think they used 2 engines - 1 for each test, 2 gearboxes - 1 for each test and 2 chassis 1 for each test just split between the 2 drivers. That sound about right? And if I am not mistaken I think the gearbox conked out in the last test when Lewis was in the car right? And I also think it would be right to assume that engine allocation this year is 5 engines for the entirety of the season for each driver right? And the engines used in the test don't count against that allocation I would think.

I think this year there will be tracks especially street circuits like Singapore where Ferrari will reign superior and even Moncao as well. The other non-street circuits Mercedes will have the advantage. Ferrari are known to be easier on the tires so on hot temperature circuits once again Ferrari will reign over the Mercedes. Unless Mercedes really went all out and knowing full well what their weaknesses were from last year they nailed it down and made a 'perfect' car. I highly doubt that is even possible IMHO.

Why are you bringing up Singapore 2015? If you look at Singapore 2014, Lewis beat Seb by 13.5 seconds that year. It was numerous problems that lead to that pretty horrible race. Plus, Lewis DNF'd so we can't be sure where he finished (though I doubt it would've been a win). Monaco 2015 was a strategy error on the teams part that ended up with a 1st and 3rd place when it could've been a 1-2. Plus, they've won Monaco 3x in a row so far.

Finally, what evidence do you have saying Ferrari are the better car on street circuits? I'm not trying to be aggressive. I just want to know why you think that.

[dot235]

That's the problem right there. They don't, because they weren't really doing qualy runs. They might use different engine modes during different stages to test its reliability and how power delivery is (although they would know that from extensive dyno testing, as well as data from last year). In the end, the team is not interested to set record lap times because you don't get points for that in testing. You want to make sure your aero works the way it should and how your car performs with the tyres and how that degredation is, as also testing those new parts they have been bolting on to get a better understanding in what has which effect. They could be doing that on engine maps where performance is reduced somewhat, so that the drivers are all just pushing to the limits of that map.

I will have to disagree with you here. You still need to make sure that the results you get on the dyno correspond to the results you get on track. I think all the manufacturer teams ran they EPU at full power one time or another during testing even if just for 2 sectors or so of otherwise unrepresentative lap.

[Phil]

I think you will find if you re-read my post that we do in fact agree with one another. Yes, that they tested various engine modes under to us unknown circumstances.

What I disagreed with in your earlier post was specifically:

"So how do you hide your pace with EPU running max power?"

...implying that Mercedes would have reason to do all their runs with the EPU running max power. My point was precisely that this is unlikely to be the case. They may have tested it under certain runs, but not in a way that would make it obvious to other teams how much pace they have in hand or not. There'd be no point in doing that. In order to mask their pace, they could be running various different engine modes and doing runs to test the tire degradation on various different fuel loads and that would give them all the info they would need without having to run all-out, max power.

[A-Bap]

I think you will find if you re-read my post that we do in fact agree with one another. Yes, that they tested various engine modes under to us unknown circumstances.

What I disagreed with in your earlier post was specifically:

"So how do you hide your pace with EPU running max power?"

...implying that Mercedes would have reason to do all their runs with the EPU running max power. My point was precisely that this is unlikely to be the case. They may have tested it under certain runs, but not in a way that would make it obvious to other teams how much pace they have in hand or not. There'd be no point in doing that. In order to mask their pace, they could be running various different engine modes and doing runs to test the tire degradation on various different fuel loads and that would give them all the info they would need without having to run all-out, max power.

I think you're missing something here. Consider these factors associated with Merc:

- Supposedly big gains in PU output and efficiency
- Major new aero bits that were put on early, and stayed on
- So-so speed trap numbers (Nico, horrible Lewis, pretty good, which raises other questions)
- Good but not great lap times relative to the rest of front runners

With the new nose & new barge fence, clearly they're very interested in increasing DF and making tires last.

The consistently huge top speed delta between Lewis and Nico while their lap times were close reveals they didn't care a whole about straight line top speed. I think they know they have the power they need, so what's next?

I believe that early on, their focus turned to optimizing DF under yaw in sectors 2 and 3, and not so much total lap time. Tire data and reliability testing were nice peripheral benefits, and gave everyone something to talk about.

Anyone have sector data?