Alguck wrote:The red flag was COSTLY to Hamilton? You mean because it didn't give him a huge second advantage in addition to eliminating the quite substantial gaps in front of him?
Yes, quite clearly. On lap 16, the order was 1. Rai, 2. Vet, 3. Ham, 4. Ros. This order is of course slightly misleading because Vettel and Rosberg had already stopped, while Rai and Ham were still on their first set of tires.
Vettel was on super softs (the unused ones from Q3), Rosberg on softs.
Then, end of lap 16, onto lap 17, Hamilton and kimi dive into the pits. Hamilton pitted strategically onto medium tires that at that point were clear was the focus to drive to the end without another stop, meaning that even though Rosberg was now ahead on quicker tires, he would later have to pit, so would have to make good on that time he would lose through the pits.
At that point, the order was 1.) Vet (SS) 2.) Ros (S), 3.) Kimi (S), 4.) Ric (SS) 5.) Ves (S), 6. Sainz (S), 7. Ham (M)
Then the crash happened and subsequent red-flag, meaning that tires could be changed. This enabled Rosberg to strategically move to mediums as well and his relative position to Hamilton just increased by that pitstop he would have made had that red-flag not happened. Ricciardo was the big winner here, because he had not pitted yet and therefore could stay in 4th position. Had Hamilton not pitted, he would have been in 3rd with the freedom of choice of tyres behind Rosberg on the same, with no gap.
Lets assume no luck, just safety-car, no red-flag - then Vettels position would have been stronger relative to Rosberg (SS vs S) meaning both would have needed to pit again. It would have also meant that Ham would have faced the same situation vs. the two Torro Rossos in front, but once ahead, would have been closer to Rosberg and Vettel given both would have had to pit again. That situation stayed vs. Vettel (who then had the problem of facing track position but his gap to Rosberg eliminated which meant he fell back to 3rd).
Imagine, no red-flag, no tyre change - Hamilton on mediums vs cars in front of him who all needed to pit again. He might have ended up 1st or at worst still 2nd because his position would have only been better than what unfolded with the red-flag and Rosberg moving to mediums too on a free pitstop (during the red-flag).
EDIT:
In short. With red-flag; Hamilton lost his advantage by pitting on to mediums relative to Rosberg and had to deal with Ricciardo ahead of him (who got a free pitstop because of the red-flag). Had the red-flag not happened, Rosberg would have remained on softs and Ricciardo at his pitstop would have fell behind the TRs and Hamilton. Hamilton finished 6+ seconds off the lead - imagine the situation WITHOUT the red-flag and Rosberg doing an extra pitstop and Ricciardo not being in the way.
