2016 Australian Grand Prix - Melbourne, March 18-20

[bonjon1979]

Thought that was great. I really think we saw a difference with drivers not being told what pace to run at. I'm a bit confused by this talk saying that red flag saved Hamilton. Safety car was called out, he was on mediums with all the cars in front on tyres that would mean they'd need to stop again, he would've won the race had it not been for the red flag!

[Phil]

Hamilton was 27s behind vettel moments before SC and had tons of cars in front on soft tires.

Don't let the times fool you, as there was so much of debris on the track that the gaps radically increased right when Hamilton came out the pits. He was essentially a pitstop behind Vettel plus 3 seconds.

I have the race open at exactly the moment when the crash happened and the gap from Vettel to Rosberg was 3.764 seconds and that increased to over 7 seconds within the next few seconds, not because Vettel was pulling away, but because the debris on the track (just as the safety car was deployed) meant that cars avoided it, some better, some faster, some slower.

So on lap 16 before Hamilton pitted, he was just overtaken by Vettel on better tires, then moments later, he dived into the pits with Rosberg just behind. So for all intends and purpose, Hamilton was exactly behind by 1 pitstop. On lap 17, assuming no safety car, the 'real order' at that point would have been:

1. Vet (SS) -> 3.7s -> 2. Ros (S) -> 11s -> 3. Kimi (SS?), 4. Ves (S), 5. Sai (S), 6. Ham (M)
Gap Vet to Ros, the 3.7s, Ros to Ham, exactly 1 pitstop.

Also good to note, Kimi was 10 seconds ahead of Vettel when he pitted, after he came out, he was 14.7 seconds behind Vettel. I am assuming a pitstop in Melbourne is roughly 25 seconds?

Fact is, with or without the safety car, Hamilton wasn't that far off Vettel at that point. As you said, 27-30 seconds give or take with at least both Torro Rossos between them. The safety car didn't change that. The only difference that safety car and red-flag made was that Rosberg changed his tires for free. The gaps that were there, yes, were decreased, but not by that much.

Case in point, lap 32 (14 later) when Sainz went into the pits and released Hamilton into clean air, the gaps were:

1.) Vet -> 2.7s -> 2.) Ros -> 11.4s -> 3.) Ric -> 16s -> 4.) Ves -> 19s -> 5.) Ham

So Ham was 19s off the lead, 16.5s off Rosberg. In other words, this means that being behind the Torro Rossos for 14 laps meant that he lost about 16.5 seconds relative to Rosberg as a result of not getting past them.

So back to the no-alonso-crash-scenario - if the gap was roughly a pitstop before the crash to Rosberg, having those two cars in between would have meant 1 pitstop behind Rosberg plus those 16.5 seconds. So roughly 40 seconds? But Rosberg would have needed to pit, so we can extract that 25 seconds and it would have been a real gap of 15 seconds somewhere between lap 32 and 40 (whenever Rosberg would have pitted for his last stint).

Compare that to the situation we had with the safety-car and the 16.5 seconds off of Rosberg he was (lap 32) without Rosberg needing to pit and I conclude the safety-car/red-flag made little difference in Hamiltons race. At worst, he would have been 3rd assuming Kimi would have had his fault anyway, but IMO the above numbers suggest there is a probability Ham could have beaten him under the circumstance that he was not going to stop anymore.

This to me only underlines the pace of that Mercedes and their strategic genius going onto the medium compound. Without the red-flag, Hamilton could have been on a winner with his medium tires. Without the safety-car, no, Hamilton wouldn't have won, but he wouldn't have been that far off either. So no, he wasn't that lucky. When you start off pole and then lose 5 positions, it's not a question of "luck" but one of damage limitation.

[dot235]

So they are now saying Haas EPU software was at fault in Alonso's crash if I understood it right...

Under some closer examination, energy recovering system indeed briefly engages at the worst moment possible:




Alonso's strange mistake by turning back towards Gutierrez, Hass slowing down on its own at that exact time to cause the accident. Someone really made sure... Alright I'am joking. Or maybe not.

[Tim.Wright]

Alonso's strange mistake by turning back towards Gutierrez, Hass slowing down on its own at that exact time to cause the accident. Someone really made sure... Alright I'am joking. Or maybe not.

Next time you change lanes to overtake someone on the road, watch your hands. The first movement is obviously away from the person you are overtaking. and puts you on a diagonal trajectory pointing into the next lane. To straighten that up again and return to a parallel trajectory you need to give an angle NEGATIVE to that of your first input. i.e. you need to steer PAST zero and towards the other car just to put you back on a straight trajectory.

Here is a data capture from a double lane change:


Between 1-6s is a single lane change maneuver - see how there is about +40deg of steering to start the maneuver and then -40deg to finish it?

If you watch the video of the accident the steering input towards Gutierrez is an extremely short transient condition to correct the trajectory.

[LionKing]

There is one aspect you are not considering in your assessment Phil; the pace advantage Rosberg would have if there were no safety car.

Vettel was 10 seconds behind Lewis after his final stop, caught him in 14 laps with soft tires when both in clean air. Rosberg would not have taken the mediums without the safety car.

Vettel and Rosberg would have done sth like SS - SS -S or SS -S - S. As I said, once they built a pit stop gap, it would have been over for Lewis. They would have made their pit stops and come out in front. 15 laps on SS and 25 laps on softs against 40 lap on mediums for Lewis. (even without considering Lewis being behind the Toro Rossos.)

[PlatinumZealot]

Todays crash is again a proof that sandtraps have no place on f1 circuit. What would be a perfectly normal incident, turned into serious crash that could cost a life. Sand is the only reason for formula going airborne.

The real problem is the elevation of that particular sandtrap that alonso slid into. There was a signficiant banking at the edge where the trap meets the track, almost like a banking. That is what caused the car to flip. I think if they made. The edge of the sand trap lower than the track the problem would be solved.

[PlatinumZealot]

I thinj with the saftey car and without the Redflags hamilton would have had a good chance of winning that race.

[Radley]

One driver that really caught my eye this weekend was Pascal Wehrlein. He was in the top 10 for most of FP3 and early on in the race was up to 13th. I think this driver might turn into something special. Oh yeah, he also had the top speed in Sector 3.

[WaikeCU]

Okay, so here's my late post on the race. Here's what I made out of the race:

- Race was more exciting due to the bad starts of the Mercs and the red flag situation
- Mercedes were quick. There's no denying to that. The only thing that worked against them was turbulent air. Rosberg got stuck behind Kimi, whereas Hamilton was stuck behind the Toro Rosso's for the majority of the race. Performance on the Medium tire was staggering. +30 laps on that rubber and still the Ferrari of Vettel only closed in on Hamilton right at the end. Vettel was running on Softs. Hmmm... What tire were they running most of the time again in Winter testing?
- Turbulent air seems to be an issue for most of them. Like I said, Hamilton vs the Toro Rosso's. Palmer and Bottas behind the Haas of Grosjean and Sainz behind Bottas.
- I don't think Haas has the sheer speed for Quali, but on race trim, they look pretty decent mid pack with Grosjean behind the wheel.
- Don't think this weekend was the ideal way to determine the order of the pack. Might need to wait till Bahrain and Malaysia to see who is where.
- Why was Magnussen pushed to the end of the pit exit? Why was he the only one to go on track when there was a red flag?

[dot235]

Alonso's strange mistake by turning back towards Gutierrez, Hass slowing down on its own at that exact time to cause the accident. Someone really made sure... Alright I'am joking. Or maybe not.

Next time you change lanes to overtake someone on the road, watch your hands. The first movement is obviously away from the person you are overtaking. and puts you on a diagonal trajectory pointing into the next lane. To straighten that up again and return to a parallel trajectory you need to give an angle NEGATIVE to that of your first input. i.e. you need to steer PAST zero and towards the other car just to put you back on a straight trajectory.

Here is a data capture from a double lane change:
http://www.ecs.steyr.com/fileadmin/ecs_ ... y_t_02.gif

Between 1-6s is a single lane change maneuver - see how there is about +40deg of steering to start the maneuver and then -40deg to finish it?

If you watch the video of the accident the steering input towards Gutierrez is an extremely short transient condition to correct the trajectory.

Wow. The amount of effort you made to explain the obvious. Gotta give you credit for that

I don't mean to sound rude, but next time YOU overtake someone, watch your hands at when exactly do you steer in the opposite direction of your first input.

• Is it:
• a) you just started the maneuver and are in the middle of the lanes.
  OR
• b) you are already alongside the other car in the actual overtaking lane with plenty of space between you and the slower car.

In order to be even thinking about returning to parallel trajectory you need to already be horizontally clear of the car in front of you.

[timekiller001]

One driver that really caught my eye this weekend was Pascal Wehrlein. He was in the top 10 for most of FP3 and early on in the race was up to 13th. I think this driver might turn into something special. Oh yeah, he also had the top speed in Sector 3.

I have not seen FP3, but I was also surprised (as probably many others) with his initial race pace. He got in front of the Saubers at the start and behind Palmer, and it settled down with ~1sec between each of them. And that continued until the pitstops. It's not like he blocked those behind him, he was just as fast as those around him. That really looked as if the Manor has caught up to the back, at least they're not seconds away anymore.
Although the car seems to simply eat the tires. In the second part of the race he fell back and had to make an extra pitstop. They need to work on that.
But they didn't do so many laps during testing, so that may be a thing that can be fixed with some setup work. We'll see. I'm just happy to see them able to fight for positions and not being stonedead last.
-----------------
Overall I was quite happy with the race. The choice between three types of tires really opens up for different strategies. Unfortunately that got a bit destroyed by the red flag. Would've been nice to see where Hamiltons strategy would have got him, compared to probably Supersoft and Soft for the Ferraris and Rosberg. Toro Rosso and Force India seem to have been caught as well by the red flag. But on the other hand it helped Haas to end up being so far in the top 10. The qualifying cost them a lot, since it didn't look like they were so slow as the qualifying said.


--
Magnussen was pushed to the front in the pit lane because he was a lap behind - similar to what they do when the safety car is out. He was allowed to lap himself back.

[Tim.Wright]

In order to be even thinking about returning to parallel trajectory you need to already be horizontally clear of the car in front of you.

No, I wouldn't agree. You start turning back before you reach the other car. Exactly at the midpoint as you called it. Especially if you were in a rush to straighten up for the next braking point as Fernando was doing I assume.

If you wait until you are completely in the other lane before starting to return the wheel then you will find yourself the correct lane, pointing in the wrong direction, and with the steering wheel still pointed to carry you further out of your lane. If you only start now to return the steering, you need first to return it back to zero (at this point you are still traveling diagonally), then apply the balancing input to straighten the car up. Only then will the car be running straight but you would have crossed another lane in the meantime.

One thing that you need to remember is that just because your steering to the right, doesn't mean your trajectory is is pointing to the right. You can still be pointing to the left but during a transient "yawing phase" to the right.

I personally start returning the steering just as I cross the centre line. Until this day I haven't hit anything...

[dot235]

In order to be even thinking about returning to parallel trajectory you need to already be horizontally clear of the car in front of you.

No, I wouldn't agree. You start turning back before you reach the other car. Exactly at the midpoint as you called it. Especially if you were in a rush to straighten up for the next braking point as Fernando was doing I assume.

If you wait until you are completely in the other lane before starting to return the wheel then you will find yourself the correct lane, pointing in the wrong direction, and with the steering wheel still pointed to carry you further out of your lane.

One thing that you need to remember is that just because your steering to the right, doesn't mean your trajectory is is pointing to the right. You can still be pointing to the left but during a transient "yawing phase" to the right.

I personally start returning the steering just as I cross the centre line. Until this day I haven't hit anything...

I guess I might have formulated that not clear enough.

You may START turning back when you are between the lanes. Meaning you start to decrease the positive angle and start turning the steering wheel back, so as you finally straighten it and apply the negative angle you are already horizontally clear of the car driving ahead of you meaning you wouldn't crash into it if it were to rapidly brake at that point. At no point before this you apply an actual negative steering angle (unless you start losing your rear end, etc.).

[cirrusflyer]

I liked Palmer driving today too. He was on older tyers than both TR and he kept them behind for a lot of laps.

[Just_a_fan]

Palmer showed how ham-fisted Maldonado was when in company of others cars. Good close racing with others. Good stuff all round by the midfield.