Kimi Räikkönen experienced a tough Sunday in the Chinese GP as the 2007 champion had to work very hard to claw back into the points after having been hit hard by his Ferrari teammate Sebastian Vettel.
Fastest lap last year was a 1:42.2, I expect the target lap to be around 1:40 as this will offer the best balance between fuel use and tire degradation. The tires have to last 16 laps for a 3 stopper to work, the mediums seem to be the only tire that can manage this consistently, but their performance is not good enough to make a two stop race, considering the super soft probably won't last more than 8 laps, and only 6 of them will be competitive, where the soft can do 11 competitive laps, however the mediums can only do 18 competitive laps, but you need to do at least 22 laps per stint to make a two stop work. 8 16 16 16 with an advantage over medium runners for 33 laps, so if you can make up 24 seconds in those 33 laps the three stopper works. A two stopper will have a roughly 12 lap pace advantage +24 seconds. If the soft is faster than the medium by 1 second the two stopper won't work unless the medium advantage is .6 seconds or more. This is of course predicated on the assumption that no one makes a mistake.
godlameroso wrote:Fastest lap last year was a 1:42.2, I expect the target lap to be around 1:40 as this will offer the best balance between fuel use and tire degradation. The tires have to last 16 laps for a 3 stopper to work, the mediums seem to be the only tire that can manage this consistently, but their performance is not good enough to make a two stop race, considering the super soft probably won't last more than 8 laps, and only 6 of them will be competitive, where the soft can do 11 competitive laps, however the mediums can only do 18 competitive laps, but you need to do at least 22 laps per stint to make a two stop work. 8 16 16 16 with an advantage over medium runners for 33 laps, so if you can make up 24 seconds in those 33 laps the three stopper works. A two stopper will have a roughly 12 lap pace advantage +24 seconds. If the soft is faster than the medium by 1 second the two stopper won't work unless the medium advantage is .6 seconds or more. This is of course predicated on the assumption that no one makes a mistake.
If you have 1 medium set for the race, you'll still need to do a 3 stopper unless you can stretch that medium. You'll have at least 20 laps to do on the final stint even if you do stretch the medium stint. A viable strategy may be to go SS, S then finish on mediums and hope they last until the end since the car will be lighter on fuel. The preferred strategy will be to go SS S S S, if you can stretch the middle two stints you could go for a SS mad dash to the finish, or if you have the tires and the attachments go SS(8) SS(10) S(16) M(22), this would give you clean air towards the end of the race.
yes, definitely, Williams and Haas will probably be happy about a wet FP3 as they would need to save tires and couldn't do much running anyway on their loads of supersoft sets.
So best bet is to do Q2 on supersofts to start the race on, if you are a front runner. This simply means you save all the freshest sets of the better race tyre for undercuts and actual racing on. For best of the rest teams like redBull, qualifying on soft and running a long 2nd stint might pay dividends towards the end of the race.
I doubt it tbh, sacrificing a potential 5th place on the grid to end up 11th isn't really worth it (as we are back to a top 10 Q3 instead of top 8 ) - but with mixed weather conditions it will probably not come into play anyway