2016 Chinese Grand Prix - Shanghai, Apr 15 - 17

[George-Jung]

The only thing I have to say about Rosberg is;
Now we know Schumacher did a good job next to Rosberg..

Rosberg is a very talented driver, but misses the charisma in some sort of way.

Anyway, luck or no luck.. to win you need to position yourself in the best position to win and he has done a great job the last 3 races, better than anyone else.

[GoranF1]

The determination is strong with this one.

If i wanted to show determination i would pull out some videos showing Vettels over-agression on lap 1s, but i dont feel like it now.

Yes very useful... Maybe you don't realize it but the world isn't black or white. Looking at all the different angles the blame is bit distributed over all three drivers (so a racing incident). I would give Kvyat 50% of the blame, Raikkonen 30%, Vettel 20%.
However, if Vettel wouldn't have gone left (you can see it on the video you have posted with DiResta) All 3 would have been out the race and it would have been 100% Kvyats fault. This is not speculation, but a fact. Also this is what Vettel was angry about, and from my point of view it is all natural behaviour to do so. I would do the same. But I can also understand Kvyat explanation (well, not the self absorbed nonsense we are both on the podium, what is the problem?) - It is just racing.

Verdict: Racing incident, but could have been much worse if Vettel didn't steered left.

i disagree.

[Phil]

I think the problem with your point is, that the field is competitive this year. You only have to look at where Hamilton finished with the damaged car. If this was 2014/2015, you can bet your bottom dollar that he would've been knocking on a podium finish, for sure. It's just that in this race, the other main competitors that could have raced with Rosberg for the win, promptly took themselves out of contention at the first corner. Hopefully, the next race provides a clean first corner so we can actually see a race among the front running teams.

We have different definitions of competitive then. Competitive to me, is the opposite of having Mercedes tagged for wins prior to every race. You'd be a fool to bet against them. Which one of those two drivers is anyone's guess, but betting on anyone else is a gamble and unlikely to happen, except for circumstance.

The qualifying gap is substantial. And during the race, Ferrari hasn't shown to be that competitive if not for circumstance (so far).

Yes, they might all be closer and as in races of 2015 and 2014, if you start from dead last and damage your car, even the quickest car will unlikely propel you to the podium. Nothing new there. My post is strictly speaking about the likely outcome when everything goes according to plan. Right until now, this has been the case for Nico, not for Hamilton.

My point, if it goes according to plan for both Mercedes drivers (meaning 1 and 2 after the first few corners in dry conditions, no unpredictable safety-cars etc), you will see a Mercedes 1&2 for the most part of this season. Under this assumption, Hamilton would need 6 straight wins to be level by the half-way-mark. I'm not assuming he will pull that off, so being as optimistic as I can, if he wins 66% of the next 9 races, he'll be level. That's already in the 2nd half.

A lot can happen, sure. I'm just putting into perspective what a 36 point lead means if you are facing a competitor in the same car and there's a 50+% (I'd say above 60 actually) certainty that either one of you will be on 1st or 2nd place each race.

In 2015, the team secured 12 1-2 finishes out of 20 races. Two further races, one of them won while the other had issues. Those two should/could have been a 1-2 too, bringing that figure up to 14 out of 20. I think this year is slightly more competitive, but I'm still expecting over 10 1-2 finishes at least, hence my above 50% figure.

[turbof1]

I removed around a page of posts about silly posts, posts explaining how silly those posts were, and the predictable bickering afterwards. Stay nice and bring reasonable arguments to the table, people. Else I will have to close down the topic.

[Nuvolari]

I think the problem with your point is, that the field is competitive this year. You only have to look at where Hamilton finished with the damaged car. If this was 2014/2015, you can bet your bottom dollar that he would've been knocking on a podium finish, for sure. It's just that in this race, the other main competitors that could have raced with Rosberg for the win, promptly took themselves out of contention at the first corner. Hopefully, the next race provides a clean first corner so we can actually see a race among the front running teams.

We have different definitions of competitive then. Competitive to me, is the opposite of having Mercedes tagged for wins prior to every race. You'd be a fool to bet against them. Which one of those two drivers is anyone's guess, but betting on anyone else is a gamble and unlikely to happen, except for circumstance.

The qualifying gap is substantial. And during the race, Ferrari hasn't shown to be that competitive if not for circumstance (so far).

Yes, they might all be closer and as in races of 2015 and 2014, if you start from dead last and damage your car, even the quickest car will unlikely propel you to the podium. Nothing new there. My post is strictly speaking about the likely outcome when everything goes according to plan. Right until now, this has been the case for Nico, not for Hamilton.

My point, if it goes according to plan for both Mercedes drivers (meaning 1 and 2 after the first few corners in dry conditions, no unpredictable safety-cars etc), you will see a Mercedes 1&2 for the most part of this season. Under this assumption, Hamilton would need 6 straight wins to be level by the half-way-mark. I'm not assuming he will pull that off, so being as optimistic as I can, if he wins 66% of the next 9 races, he'll be level. That's already in the 2nd half.

A lot can happen, sure. I'm just putting into perspective what a 36 point lead means if you are facing a competitor in the same car and there's a 50+% (I'd say above 60 actually) certainty that either one of you will be on 1st or 2nd place each race.

In 2015, the team secured 12 1-2 finishes out of 20 races. Two further races, one of them won while the other had issues. Those two should/could have been a 1-2 too, bringing that figure up to 14 out of 20. I think this year is slightly more competitive, but I'm still expecting over 10 1-2 finishes at least, hence my above 50% figure.

Oh, you're talking hypotheticals. Right. I would suggest, it is far from given that even if we had a Hamilton/Rosberg 1-2 after the first corner that they will finish 1-2 in whichever order. Once again if you look closely at Raikkonen's pace in Bahrain and both Ferrari drivers' pace in this race, only circumstances prevented them from challenging for the win.

I agree that there is a gap in qualifying between Ferrari and Mercedes, but I would not call it substantial. Last year's gap was nearly 1s between the best Merc and the best Ferrari in qualifying for this race. This year it was ~0.5s but with error prone laps from both Ferrari drivers. Raikkonen also did a faster stint on the Super Softs during FP2 than anybody else, his race pace nullified by the first corner incident and having to fight through the field. So, based on this I would say Hamilton's chances of becoming a WDC this year has taken a big hit. However, if the mechanical reliability evens out between Rosberg and Hamilton as the season progresses and Ferrari's upcoming PU fix doesn't help, he will have an easier time of fighting back in to contention. IMO, all signs are pointing to an excellent season. One would be a fool to bet for a Mercedes win every race, let alone for the WDC.

[iotar__]

The only thing I have to say about Rosberg is;
Now we know Schumacher did a good job next to Rosberg..

He didn't because he didn't and because he wasn't competing only against Rosberg. Stupid crashes, poor racecraft, poor Q, he wasted his best chance in Monaco with a crash and a grid penalty in Valencia. Rosberg improved, last season was his best and although it's hard to judge drivers in a dominant car Hamilton is a top benchmark.

As for the claim that F1 is competitive this race was the evidence to the contrary. Who did those "strong come back" drivers beat? Massa who finished 75 s behind Rosberg with a SC which helped them all? Hamilton who started last, had 5 stops and car damage? They ended up according to first lap losses with healthy gaps beating no one because there's no competition. Bottas outqualified Kvyat and almost Vettel and ended up 10th, first lap is only half of the reason why.

[diego.liv]

Oh, you're talking hypotheticals. Right. I would suggest, it is far from given that even if we had a Hamilton/Rosberg 1-2 after the first corner that they will finish 1-2 in whichever order. Once again if you look closely at Raikkonen's pace in Bahrain and both Ferrari drivers' pace in this race, only circumstances prevented them from challenging for the win.

I agree that there is a gap in qualifying between Ferrari and Mercedes, but I would not call it substantial. Last year's gap was nearly 1s between the best Merc and the best Ferrari in qualifying for this race. This year it was ~0.5s but with error prone laps from both Ferrari drivers. Raikkonen also did a faster stint on the Super Softs during FP2 than anybody else, his race pace nullified by the first corner incident and having to fight through the field. So, based on this I would say Hamilton's chances of becoming a WDC this year has taken a big hit. However, if the mechanical reliability evens out between Rosberg and Hamilton as the season progresses and Ferrari's upcoming PU fix doesn't help, he will have an easier time of fighting back in to contention. IMO, all signs are pointing to an excellent season. One would be a fool to bet for a Mercedes win every race, let alone for the WDC.

But ROS 1st stint pace on softs was not that much slower than VET last stint on softs, even if VET wasn't pushing every single lap, the pace of Ferrari was a slower by some margin.

http://en.mclarenf-1.com/index.php?page ... 958&graf=3

More difficult to judge kimi's pace, traffic and different compounds..well some teams used mediums very well, so that pace between mediums and softs could have been quite similar

[Mandrake]

Vettel drove with a broken front wing endplate though. Not sure how much that costs...

Edit: did he change the nose twice? Now after writing this I'm not sure anymore

[F1NAC]

he changed once. Then he damaged his new FW with Bottas and finished with it

[Tauri_J]

2016 chinese gp had the most overtakes in history:

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... _the_most/

most of them were boring DRS overtakes...yawn

[Juzh]

Vettel drove with a broken front wing endplate though. Not sure how much that costs...

I'd guess a noticeable amount, probably on the verge of needing a replacement once again. All but 1 outwash generating turning wanes and cascades were gone and those are quite significant in channelling air around the tire and towards the rear of the car.

2016 chinese gp had the most overtakes in history:

https://www.reddit.com/r/formula1/comme ... _the_most/

most of them were boring DRS overtakes...yawn

Overtakes nonetheless.

[Kiril Varbanov]

Apologies if it has been posted before, VET vs. KVY incident POV - http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-web ... urn_1.html

[Phil]

Oh, you're talking hypotheticals. Right.

Not hypotheticals, probabilities.

I agree that there is a gap in qualifying between Ferrari and Mercedes, but I would not call it substantial.

Sorry to bust your fairy tale, but 5 tenths is substantial in F1 terms. Lets assume Mercedes and Ferrari are equal on race pace; then again, in order to beat them, you need to be quicker during the race. And I see no such evidence. Best case scenario; they might not be far off, they might capitalize here and there (due to circumstance), but usually, a slower car will not beat a quicker one (or identically quick one) if it is already handicapped by starting behind.

The same logic applies to Lewis and Rosberg. For one to beat the other, it is very important who is ahead by the first few corners. The one following the other will always be at a disadvantage - first by strategy (first car gets pit priority) and second by dirty-air. One first needs to over come that disadvantage.

So yes, I'm going to predict on the premise of their qualifying performance so far (outright pace), the Mercedes is substantially quicker in qualifying and at worst, slightly quicker during the race. I predict this is going to hold true for most races this year unless one team suddenly finds a revolutionary trick to unlock a lot of performance or the tires suddenly change in design. Yes, I am sure we will see the occasional race that will turn things around; a wet race, a yellow/red flagged session, a safety car, crash, Monaco or a weird race like Singapore. But on the whole, the more predictable races will most probably be 1-2s, like last year. Qualifying has cemented that for me; With Mercedes walking away with easy front-row-starts so far. I have no doubt that China would have been a front-row for both Mercedes had Hamilton not had any technical issues.

So yes, you can call that hypotheticals where I simply call it being realistic, based on what we are seeing now and what we have seen the last 2 years.


For the record; I may be a Hamilton supporter, but I am by no means a Mercedes supporter or a fan of 1 team dominating the sport like Mercedes is currently doing. In fact, I would very much enjoy a closer battle for wins, despite any bias towards a driver I might have. But, I just don't see it happening (this season) and I don't believe in miracles.

[Nuvolari]

Not hypotheticals, probabilities.

Sorry to bust your fairy tale, but 5 tenths is substantial in F1 terms. Lets assume Mercedes and Ferrari are equal on race pace; then again, in order to beat them, you need to be quicker during the race. And I see no such evidence. Best case scenario; they might not be far off, they might capitalize here and there (due to circumstance), but usually, a slower car will not beat a quicker one (or identically quick one) if it is already handicapped by starting behind.

<snip>
So yes, I'm going to predict on the premise of their qualifying performance so far (outright pace), the Mercedes is substantially quicker in qualifying and at worst, slightly quicker during the race. I predict this is going to hold true for most races this year unless one team suddenly finds a revolutionary trick to unlock a lot of performance or the tires suddenly change in design. Yes, I am sure we will see the occasional race that will turn things around; a wet race, a yellow/red flagged session, a safety car, crash, Monaco or a weird race like Singapore. But on the whole, the more predictable races will most probably be 1-2s, like last year. Qualifying has cemented that for me; With Mercedes walking away with easy front-row-starts so far. I have no doubt that China would have been a front-row for both Mercedes had Hamilton not had any technical issues.

So yes, you can call that hypotheticals where I simply call it being realistic, based on what we are seeing now and what we have seen the last 2 years.

I'm sorry, but what we're both doing is hypotheticals, i.e. the 'what might have been' discussions with some probabilities thrown in that may have some relevance to your hypothetical situation where Mercedes win the majority of the remaining races and in all those races they finish 1-2. According to you, this is most likely, while I'm saying that it is very unlikely that Mercedes will get to finish 1-2 in the races they contest, even if we grant them a 1-2 start, given what we've seen in the first three races and comparing the gaps between Mercedes and Ferrari in those three races last year. We both have the same data, but come to very different conclusions.

The thing that you're doing is switching from what happened in reality (i.e the assumption that despite obvious mistakes in the qualifying laps by both Ferrari drivers, being 5 tenths slower than Rosberg is the maximum they could do) to what you think might happen in your hypothetical situation where the Mercedes cars start front row, when it suits your argument. Needless to say, it is fallacious argumentation.

Before we go further, let's wait and see. I assume you expect an easy Mercedes 1-2 in Sochi then? I would expect not.

Btw, I don't have an axe to grind either. I'm a poor McLaren supporter.

[SiLo]

I don't mind one team dominating as long as there is a fight for the championship and some drama a la 2014.