2016 Chinese Grand Prix - Shanghai, Apr 15 - 17

[lio007]

Chinas onboards:

https://vimeo.com/163590841

[Juzh]

Chinas onboards:

https://vimeo.com/163590841

tnx

[dans79]

I have a strong feeling that this is going to be a repeat of the 2014 season, Nico ahead on points early and Lewis clawing them all back over the rest of the season.

Possible.
That said Nico completely derailed in 2014 after having been massively set straight by the Team for colliding with Lewis in Spa. If that hadn't taken place I doubt it would have been so easy for Lewis to catch up. Nico completely lost the plot afterwards and it took a long time to recover from that.
Now, after 6 consecutive wins I doubt he will collapse again so drastically. This time it might be a bit harder for Lewis to catch up.

I disagree, I've been watching Nico for the better part of 6 years, and to me he has a fragile ego. He basically needs everything to go the way he thinks it should, or he breaks down. Unlike 2014, he won't be easily able to recover from mistakes to take second (Russia for example).

Further more, the entire reason he got reprimanded, is because he wouldn't let go of something that happened a month before.

[giantfan10]

Guys, the discussion is getting stuck into symantics about anomalies, hypotheticals and probabilities.

My view on this:
-Mercedes still has a qualifying advantage. Competitive-wise during the race this is a big advantage as it will ensure that atleast one car runs in clean air, given your start is well. Having a qualifying advantage is part of your race advantage. Ferrari could hypothetical have a small race pace advantage, but as long as you are behind an other car you cannot use it.

-That being said, I believe Ferrari's race pace is close at the very least to Mercedes.

-Lastly, I feel it's much too early to judge about how competitive they are against one another. We had only 3 races, and all those 3 races were messy. Let's first look how competitive they are if all 4 drivers have a normal start and normal race.

I COMPLETELY agree with this point of view and i'm crossing my fingers ( and toes ) for a normal race in Russia
Performance will win you the race in Russia and strategy will not bail anybody out with the expected one stop strategy.Unless of course we see a safety car or 2

[Vasconia]

I have a strong feeling that this is going to be a repeat of the 2014 season, Nico ahead on points early and Lewis clawing them all back over the rest of the season.

Possible.
That said Nico completely derailed in 2014 after having been massively set straight by the Team for colliding with Lewis in Spa. If that hadn't taken place I doubt it would have been so easy for Lewis to catch up. Nico completely lost the plot afterwards and it took a long time to recover from that.
Now, after 6 consecutive wins I doubt he will collapse again so drastically. This time it might be a bit harder for Lewis to catch up.

Yes, after Spa everthing change, Nico´s perfomance went down, its quite clear and its not a coincidence.

Hope this season things will be clearer because I think that Lewis will have to work very hard if he wants to win.

[iotar__]

I have a strong feeling that this is going to be a repeat of the 2014 season, Nico ahead on points early and Lewis clawing them all back over the rest of the season.

Possible.
That said Nico completely derailed in 2014 after having been massively set straight by the Team for colliding with Lewis in Spa. If that hadn't taken place I doubt it would have been so easy for Lewis to catch up. Nico completely lost the plot afterwards and it took a long time to recover from that.
Now, after 6 consecutive wins I doubt he will collapse again so drastically. This time it might be a bit harder for Lewis to catch up.

Yes, after Spa everthing change, Nico´s perfomance went down, its quite clear and its not a coincidence.

Hope this season things will be clearer because I think that Lewis will have to work very hard if he wants to win.

Completely wrong, he out-qualified Hamilton many times in a row after Spa and often with a healthy margin. From memory: Japan, USA, AD, Brazil, Monza - LH had some car problems. He made some mistakes and rain in Suzuka didn't help but there was no drop in performance. Hamilton had some better starts and (the horror!) small advantage of fuel & tyre management that helped with inferior one lap speed. You saw what happened in '15 when it wasn't there.

As for wishful thinking why not discuss events when they happen ? Reality was Hamilton on the same tyres with much better but slightly damaged car could not get pass Massa in a Williams. They didn't specify how big the damage was which is odd because they usually can tell rather precisely - for example Grosjeans's diffuser in an early '14 race was around 1,5 s (memory). I guess it wasn't big enough so they made tyres connection on top of that.

Edit: Let's not forget servicing substance contamination in Singapore which can really affect your performance after closest Q possible. Had it happened to Hamilton Rosberg most likely would have been a world champion.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Reality was Hamilton on the same tyres with much better but slightly damaged car could not get pass Massa in a Williams. They didn't specify how big the damage was which is odd because they usually can tell rather precisely - for example Grosjeans's diffuser in an early '14 race was around 1,5 s (memory). I guess it wasn't big enough so they made tyres connection on top of that.

Whatever was available to read, based on that, he had a damaged floor and a damaged suspension. It affected tyre life, otherwise how would you explain the fact that he only did 12 laps on Softs before they went off and then had to pit for mediums, whereas Nico did comfortable 22 laps on softs. Lewis said, the car was bouncing in the front and naturally, that would affect the cornering. He wasn't exiting the corners any faster to then line up an attack on Massa.

Edit: Let's not forget servicing substance contamination in Singapore which can really affect your performance after closest Q possible. Had it happened to Hamilton Rosberg most likely would have been a world champion.

Nico didn't had problems in any of the qualifying like Lewis had, which made him start two races from pit lane and back of the grid. Had that happened to Nico, Lewis would have won it more comfortably.

[PlatinumZealot]

There was a video posted a while back on a Mercedes engineer addressing how much time Hamilton lost. Their estimate was 1 second a lap. As for tyre life, he had much less than rosberg.

[A-Bap]

I have a strong feeling that this is going to be a repeat of the 2014 season, Nico ahead on points early and Lewis clawing them all back over the rest of the season.

Possible.
That said Nico completely derailed in 2014 after having been massively set straight by the Team for colliding with Lewis in Spa. If that hadn't taken place I doubt it would have been so easy for Lewis to catch up. Nico completely lost the plot afterwards and it took a long time to recover from that.
Now, after 6 consecutive wins I doubt he will collapse again so drastically. This time it might be a bit harder for Lewis to catch up.

I disagree, I've been watching Nico for the better part of 6 years, and to me he has a fragile ego. He basically needs everything to go the way he thinks it should, or he breaks down. Unlike 2014, he won't be easily able to recover from mistakes to take second (Russia for example).

Further more, the entire reason he got reprimanded, is because he wouldn't let go of something that happened a month before.

I actually see Lewis as the touchy one...this year he's been more grown up (but looks like he's ready to crack)...but in general I find him to be a lot more fragile. "Can't follow in these cars," "Can't pass on this track," "Team is favoring Nico."

Apart from Nico complaining about Lewis deliberately holding him back (China in 2015) or squeezing him off the track (Suzuka), his typical reaction to losing or missing pole is actually kind of adult-like: "Lewis was simply faster today," or "I made a mistake."

Also, I don't think the timid form we saw with Nico in 2014 was coming from his head. I think it was a direct reaction to post-Spa threats from PaddyTotoNikki.

The way I see it, Lewis edging him off the track in Japan and Austin changed Nico. It flipped some kind switch that motivated him to up his game, while also giving him free license to fight to Lewis like Lewis fights him.

This is all conjecture, I realize...but until this point, I might describe Nico's racing temperament toward Lewis as "competitive but deferential." This seems does not seem to be the case anymore. He's consistently the most underrated talent on the grid.

[jknights]

Well if it makes the racing more interesting then that is good for all of us.
I think personally that Hamilton is too distracted by other stuff. If Nico wins WDC in 2016 then good for him.
The Ferraris look hot at the moment so that will add spice and if some of the others can find a bit of extra pace then we are due for an interesting season.

I just wish I could watch the races live but Murdoch has that stitched up and I wont give him my money.
I just have my F1 app with commentary and delayed action highlights on UK Channel 4 for some races and some live TV.

[hemichromis]

Possible.
That said Nico completely derailed in 2014 after having been massively set straight by the Team for colliding with Lewis in Spa. If that hadn't taken place I doubt it would have been so easy for Lewis to catch up. Nico completely lost the plot afterwards and it took a long time to recover from that.
Now, after 6 consecutive wins I doubt he will collapse again so drastically. This time it might be a bit harder for Lewis to catch up.

I disagree, I've been watching Nico for the better part of 6 years, and to me he has a fragile ego. He basically needs everything to go the way he thinks it should, or he breaks down. Unlike 2014, he won't be easily able to recover from mistakes to take second (Russia for example).

Further more, the entire reason he got reprimanded, is because he wouldn't let go of something that happened a month before.

I actually see Lewis as the touchy one...this year he's been more grown up (but looks like he's ready to crack)...but in general I find him to be a lot more fragile. "Can't follow in these cars," "Can't pass on this track," "Team is favoring Nico."

Apart from Nico complaining about Lewis deliberately holding him back (China in 2015) or squeezing him off the track (Suzuka), his typical reaction to losing or missing pole is actually kind of adult-like: "Lewis was simply faster today," or "I made a mistake."

Also, I don't think the timid form we saw with Nico in 2014 was coming from his head. I think it was a direct reaction to post-Spa threats from PaddyTotoNikki.

The way I see it, Lewis edging him off the track in Japan and Austin changed Nico. It flipped some kind switch that motivated him to up his game, while also giving him free license to fight to Lewis like Lewis fights him.

This is all conjecture, I realize...but until this point, I might describe Nico's racing temperament toward Lewis as "competitive but deferential." This seems does not seem to be the case anymore. He's consistently the most underrated talent on the grid.

I agree with you, each has childish moments.
Lewis has seemed far more mature this year, hope that continues.
Rosberg is IMO as fast as Hamilton, where it typically fell apart was wheel-to-wheel racing.

Hamilton would pass on the inside, Rosberg would complain about not being left enough room.
Hamilton would pass on the outside, Rosberg would try to squeeze him out and lewis would do a cut-back.
At his best Rosberg can match Hamilton, that's all he needs to do now!