Silly Season 2016/2017

[SR14]

Ricciardo staying put at Redbull until the end of 2018. Good bet for the 2017 title.

http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/ ... until-2018

[Phil]

Pitty, though absolutely understandable. I probably wouldn't have considered the Ferrari seat either, though I think the Mercedes one would have been quite attractive, given the talks surrounding Rosberg. I would have guessed a high probability that Rosberg might end up at Ferrari (needing change), Mercedes wanting a new star and secure themselves with a younger driver longterm and Kimi out as a result. But from what I'm reading; RedBull have as much a say in keeping Ricciardo than Ricciardo wanting to stay with them. I'm not sure Ricciardo could have left RedBull from what it seems. Given that scenario, I see the other puzzle pieces falling into place - that being; Kimi staying at Ferrari (unless someone else would fill that seat like Perez, though I wouldn't know why they'd go for him for Kimi?) and Rosberg settling for whatever Mercedes is willing to offer in the end. That being a compromise of some sort, given Mercedes means are limited given they wouldn't have an adequate replacement for Rosberg (because Ricciardo is out of the picture).

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Ricciardo staying put at Redbull until the end of 2018. Good bet for the 2017 title.

http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/ ... until-2018

If Renault can add more grunt to those engines, which looks more likely with the renewed partnership with Red Bull and with the guidance of Mario Ilien, then rest assured, Newey and his team would definitely make most of the new rules. With new rules offering an opportunity to add times to tune of 3 to 5 seconds and if Mercedes doesn't manage to make most of it, then Red Bull would be the team to beat. If Honda can fix their issues, then McLaren would be in with a shout. I am not hopeful of Ferrari for the next year at all.
So, from Ricciardo's perspective, Red Bull is the place to be in if he really wants to fight for the championship in 2017.

[Schuttelberg]

Pitty, though absolutely understandable. I probably wouldn't have considered the Ferrari seat either, though I think the Mercedes one would have been quite attractive, given the talks surrounding Rosberg. I would have guessed a high probability that Rosberg might end up at Ferrari (needing change), Mercedes wanting a new star and secure themselves with a younger driver longterm and Kimi out as a result. But from what I'm reading; RedBull have as much a say in keeping Ricciardo than Ricciardo wanting to stay with them. I'm not sure Ricciardo could have left RedBull from what it seems. Given that scenario, I see the other puzzle pieces falling into place - that being; Kimi staying at Ferrari (unless someone else would fill that seat like Perez, though I wouldn't know why they'd go for him for Kimi?) and Rosberg settling for whatever Mercedes is willing to offer in the end. That being a compromise of some sort, given Mercedes means are limited given they wouldn't have an adequate replacement for Rosberg (because Ricciardo is out of the picture).

Phil, you'd keep Raikkonen? If Ferrari make up their mind to replace him, who'd be on your list apart from Rosberg? Also, if you're Ferrari, do you try to lure Rosberg?

[Phil]

Yes, I'd try to lure Rosberg because I think he's good enough and he may have lots of good insight on what makes the Mercedes such a strong package. Getting Rosberg might also lure some other technicians to Ferrari. So I think he would be a key player.

Apart from Rosberg, not really sure. I don't think Perez would do any better or have more potential than Kimi. That might be doing injustice to Perez though... Of course Ricciardo would be attractive, but I think he's unavailable and I think from Ricciardo's perspective, he'd rather eye a Mercedes than a Ferrari seat. At least Kimi gives some part of continuity and I have no idea how much value he brings outside of driving the car...

[dans79]

I have a nagging suspicion that Bottas will end up at Merc & Rosberg will end up at Williams. Bottas is managed by Wollf, so he has a leg up on everyone except Rosberg for the merc seat. Bottas is fast, and he would be a lot cheaper than Rosberg. Thus, Merc could free up some cash for development and gain some more time to evaluate Wehrlein.

[notsofast]

Hiring Rosberg for the reasons that Phil mentions would make some sense. But until Ferrari delivers a car that can beat Mercedes, there's no point in replacing their current drivers. Seb and Kimi are already extracting the maximum from their cars, i.e., #2 in the WCC. Paying more for "better" drivers is just a waste of money at this point. As far as I know, the teams do not earn money based on points. They earn money based on where they end up in the WCC. Beating RBR by more than 1 point is not a good use of resources. The same goes for all the other teams as well. Only spend money on drivers if they will move you up in the WCC.

[Peter1919]

Hiring Rosberg for the reasons that Phil mentions would make some sense. But until Ferrari delivers a car that can beat Mercedes, there's no point in replacing their current drivers. Seb and Kimi are already extracting the maximum from their cars, i.e., #2 in the WCC. Paying more for "better" drivers is just a waste of money at this point. As far as I know, the teams do not earn money based on points. They earn money based on where they end up in the WCC. Beating RBR by more than 1 point is not a good use of resources. The same goes for all the other teams as well. Only spend money on drivers if they will move you up in the WCC.

Kimi is a former World Champion, I seriously doubt that he will be paid less money than it would cost for Ferrari to hire a Perez or Grosjean or whoever. IMHO his performances have been well below par this season and only likely to get worse next season. With the new regulations coming in next season I would want a new younger driver in that second seat next season if I were in charge of Ferrari

[Vasconia]

I have a nagging suspicion that Bottas will end up at Merc & Rosberg will end up at Williams. Bottas is managed by Wollf, so he has a leg up on everyone except Rosberg for the merc seat. Bottas is fast, and he would be a lot cheaper than Rosberg. Thus, Merc could free up some cash for development and gain some more time to evaluate Wehrlein.

But Nico is faster and the other teams close the gap I doubt that Bottas will perform as well as Nico on Saturdays.

[hemichromis]

Kimi's main problem is his price. A similar quality of driver could be had for half his salary.

[dans79]

But Nico is faster and the other teams close the gap I doubt that Bottas will perform as well as Nico on Saturdays.

That's hard to gauge given the quality of the Williams, and Mercedes might not care, if he is 15 or 20 million less a year.

[dren]

Ricciardo staying put at Redbull until the end of 2018. Good bet for the 2017 title.

http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/ ... until-2018

You can bet we'll see plenty of temper tantrums from his partner next year.

[FoxHound]

But Nico is faster and the other teams close the gap I doubt that Bottas will perform as well as Nico on Saturdays.

That's hard to gauge given the quality of the Williams, and Mercedes might not care, if he is 15 or 20 million less a year.

Bottas has a Rubinho quality to him that I think would fit in well at Mercedes. Saying that Rosberg too, demonstrates a team ethic at certain times, Monaco being a decent example. But he is being dismantled bit by bit consistently. He may have won 7 races in a row, but you get the impression Hamilton backed off at the end of the last season having won the WDC, and started this season a bit undercooked.

Then with a 43 point lead due to Hamilton's misfortunes it gets turned around in 3 races to 9 points. Which could become a deficit if/when Rosberg starts his unlucky sequence. (last 3 races you could argue he has some bad luck, but entirely of racing nature, and within his control).

If Rosberg does go, it will to escape from Hamilton's imposing shadow. He cannot make it count when it matters, and the problem may well be psychological, as I feel when Rosberg is on song, he is as good as Hamilton.
I don't doubt Bottas is quick, but as you say he is a bit of an unknown. Hamilton's advantage will be his experience within the team, and his title winning experiences.
He may have the upper hand on the odd GP weekend, but Hamilton will have the measure of him over a season, particularly the first season.

[Phil]

I think the question(s) a team faces are a few:

A.) the raw speed of a driver
B.) the marketability of that driver
C.) the cost or sponsorship of that driver
D.) the drivers working ethics beyond simply driving the car
E.) the age, potential and longterm feasibility of that driver
F.) obtaining the best and 2nd best will make sure they don't drive against you in a different team

These 6 factors (there may be more) varies from team to team. A team like Sauber who is struggling for money might prioritize for instance point C because it's a matter of survival for them. A front-running team like Ferrari, Mercedes, even RedBull will prioritize differently.

If we take Mercedes for instance, I think they are in a precarious situation. At cross-roads if you like. As of 2010, they've been a team in development, constant evolution, regaining strength and developing into the championship winning team they are today. Back then, having Schumacher and Rosberg was a very good combination. One as the experienced driver who was pretty much the benchmark once upon a driver, the other still young but unquestionably talented. 2013, Hamilton comes along and Mercedes slowly matured into the team it is today. Keeping Rosberg gave a sense of continuation during this phase - stability.

Present day, they are the world champion team to beat. Do they still need that stability and continuation from a drivers perspective? Going into 2017 is a bit of an unknown as the rules will change significantly and there will be more focus on aero again. I also think having both Rosberg and Hamilton is bad longterm. Nico and Hamilton are both in their 32nd year of their lives. Eventually it makes sense to focus on a younger driver who may replace both or one of them. You don't want to end up with the situation where both drivers might leave and you will have to replace them both. That would be bad for the sake of continuity and stability, hence why they are both on contracts that are slightly asynchronous to each other.

If the choice is between Hamilton or Rosberg, I think the choice should be clear. Hamilton is the reigning world champion, he has won it 3 times already and is also more marketable. There might be a bit of favoritism towards Rosberg, given his history and that he is a very likeable character, great work ethics, no pop-culture etc and he is German which might suit the Mercedes brand, but overall, Hamilton is a safe bet. He is also a driver I think the team could rely on extracting the most of the car if the season is difficult, the car isn't that dominant and the driver element becomes a bigger factor. In the most dominant car, this is not that important, because lets face it, anyone in the Mercedes would win it - currently. Beyond this year, that is a big unknown if the Mercedes will still be as dominant as it is. If it isn't, you need a driver that is capable of extracting the most out of it.

The other factor I think that's important is that the Mercedes currently is a very attractive seat. Drivers want to go where it allows them to win. This is clearly the Mercedes at the moment. In 2018, or even in 2017, this may no longer be the case. Dynamics change sometimes. So right now, they might be in a position to lure just about any driver sans Vettel to their team. If the Mercedes stops being that, they might lose a bit of that novelty.

I say it's time for a young driver. A young driver with potential who is fast, can push the current World Champion, but has enough potential to develop into a future WDC contender.

Dans79 I think pointed out Bottas. Bottas would be a good choice. Hard to quantify, given the Williams is a very different car. Given his track record against Massa (who sadly I don't rate that high), I don't think he is that extraordinary. I would expect him to perform reasonable, but I wouldn't bet on him being better than Rosberg. But who knows, it might give the opportunity to test the waters until someone else comes along who now is locked into a fixed contract (Ricciardo, Verstappen, Vandoorne?) or see how Wehrlein matures.

Either way, I think it's doubtful Rosberg gets a 3 year deal. 3 year deal would mean he'll be mid 30ties and a lot will have changed in terms of regulations and dynamics. If I was a team, I'd go for someone quick and young, someone who you could build up into a steady contender and maybe you could avoid some of the internal team rivalry if things weren't that close.

Then again, holding on to Rosberg wouldn't be a huge blow either. He's very quick and consistent so either way, they are well prepared for 2017. The big question is what happens in 2018-2020.

[Vasconia]

But Nico is faster and the other teams close the gap I doubt that Bottas will perform as well as Nico on Saturdays.

That's hard to gauge given the quality of the Williams, and Mercedes might not care, if he is 15 or 20 million less a year.

I know but he hasnt been so much faster than Massa who I guess is far from his best version. About the money.. I dont think this is a problem for Mercedes. I think the only problem for Mercedes is how evolves the relationship between Hamilton and Rosberg because if it only was for his performance Rosberg woud stay for sure.