Will Brexit have an impact on F1?

[Vasconia]

Well, I dream with this nonsense where Europe Works a a great nation of nations, being truly democratic

Well I'm sorry to tell you that democracy in the EU will remain a dream.

Jean Claude Junckers is on record as having said........

"There can be no democratic choice agiast the treaty!".

Yes, this is why things should be changed though I am truly pessimistic about it...

[FoxHound]

@turbo and phil

Service sector economies, particularly one so dependant as the uk, is that its reliant on human resource.

If there arent capable people of performing the duties, repeatedly and reliably, that sector will underperform and fall behind the rest of the world.
Regression.

With this in mind, how will the uk with its tertiary based economy (service sector), hold up unless it adopts a de facto EU policy of freedom of movement and work?

[turbof1]

Sorry Steven, Flynfrog. But as an economist this too sweat to resist.

@turbo and phil

Service sector economies, particularly one so dependant as the uk, is that its reliant on human resource.

If there arent capable people of performing the duties, repeatedly and reliably, that sector will underperform and fall behind the rest of the world.
Regression.

With this in mind, how will the uk with its tertiary based economy (service sector), hold up unless it adopts a de facto EU policy of freedom of movement and work?

You used the right words: "service economy", "human resource" and "capable people". What is the UK having to deal with in the next decade just like almost whole of europe? Population aging.





So although public opinion on immigration definitely influenced the voting, nobody can deny the issue. On the one hand you have a population shift towards more retired people who are in need of eldercare, part of the service sector, and on the other hand you have less people supporting the economy in general.

The only way to solve this issue, and it is a very dire issue, is by allowing free movement on the labor market and have a more positive stance towards immigration. Germany actually understood this! For all the flak Merkel got for her immigration policy, it's actually long term the correct way to sustain your economy.

The UK is effectively shutting itself off from this. The next reference to an in/out referendum will be pointing towards intercourse because UK is underpopulated concerning work force.

[domh245]

Well, another twist in the tail of this saga. Boris Johnson, who was one of the leading Leave campaigners has announced that he is no longer going to run for the leadership of the Conservative party (and de facto next Prime Minister) leaving us with two real big names:

Micheal "We don't need to listen to experts" Gove, previously education secretary - a role in which he wreaked havoc with the school system in the UK. Prominent Leave campaigner
Theresa "What Human Rights?" May, currently Home secretary - a bit insane TBH and someone who wants to pull out of the ECHR and replace it with a British Bill of rights that she can change as and when. Low key remain supporter.

[FoxHound]

Thats exactly on point Turbo.

How this game of jenga will play out on the economy is a gamble too far.
Everyone will be affected by this, and slowly, very slowly the Brexit camp is waking up to the colossal mistake leaving the EU will become.

If i can narrow this down, to keep it F1 relevant, how does McLaren, a poster boy for British tech, sell cars on the continent with a tax levy? Sure they'll sell, but less than before I'd bet.

Then with restrictions in work, McLaren would be forced to source skilled labour from within the uk, instantly creating an uncompetitive work market due to qualified Europeans not having the same rights.
Higher costs for said labour are a given, which will have implications on the already levied retail price on the continent.

At a stroke, McLaren are in a disadvantageous position to their competitors. And if global deals dont match up to those of being inside the EU, amplify that to 11.

And Boris Johnson has withdrawn from the leadership contest. He knows whomever is going lead this poison challice will be associated with the mess forevermore.
Interesting also to note that Boris is pro European but anti Brussels... a De-centralist, which is no bad thing.
I'll wager he never thought brexit had a chance to win, the evening before skybet had brexit at 9/2 vor victory...

[Tommy Cookers]

The only way to solve this issue, and it is a very dire issue, is by allowing free movement on the labor market and have a more positive stance towards immigration. Germany actually understood this! For all the flak Merkel got for her immigration policy, it's actually long term the correct way to sustain your economy.
The UK is effectively shutting itself off from this. The next reference to an in/out referendum will be pointing towards intercourse because UK is underpopulated concerning work force.

free movement of labour was the rule before 2004, now it's free movement of people

the UK population has long been rising nicely wrt the birth/death balance, and that rise will accelerate
(the UK is not as Germany in this regard, having had for decades a continuous high level of immigration from outside the EU)
imo the charts in the previous post clearly support this (the population rise and rejuvenation already well developed)
remember, a country gains economically from the middle-aged, and loses from the young and the old

some of my generation were content to surrender sovereignty for a steadier, wiser, less 'democratic' policy direction via the EU
and so find the Merkelisation of the EU a disappointment
remember our UK PM Cameron was elected on a pledge to reduce annual net migration to tens of thousands (not 350000)
anyway, it seems likely that the referendum result won't really be implemented

regarding trade, afaik we are told .....
standard 'off-the-shelf' WTO trade agreement has eg a 2.4% tariff (the UK has had a WTO seat waiting for it these last 30 years)
the EU has no trade agreements with eg USA, China, India etc and eg Taiwan asked the UK 2 days ago for a trade deal

the UK govt gains concession revenue when oil prices increase and from Sterling falling wrt the US dollar
and will gain income via any new tariffs on imports

interestingly, right now (1 week post-referendum) the cost of new 10 year Govt borrowing has fallen from 2% to 0.85%
and so the Govt has announced a policy of so continuing to increase our very large public debt

[Phil]

The only way to solve this issue, and it is a very dire issue, is by allowing free movement on the labor market and have a more positive stance towards immigration. Germany actually understood this! For all the flak Merkel got for her immigration policy, it's actually long term the correct way to sustain your economy.

You really think the mass scale immigration of millions of under qualified, culturally different refugees is the correct way to "sustain your economy"? Wow. Statistically, it's actually proven that most of these people will not be integrate-able into the economy for years if not decades. They will cost the public a lot of money and it's questionable if there ever will be an upside to it, economically.

If anything, Merkel caused this. It's doubtful Brexit would have gone through if not for the Syrian crisis and how the EU and Merkel have dealt with it.

[Jolle]

The only way to solve this issue, and it is a very dire issue, is by allowing free movement on the labor market and have a more positive stance towards immigration. Germany actually understood this! For all the flak Merkel got for her immigration policy, it's actually long term the correct way to sustain your economy.

You really think the mass scale immigration of millions of under qualified, culturally different refugees is the correct way to "sustain your economy"? Wow. Statistically, it's actually proven that most of these people will not be integrate-able into the economy for years if not decades. They will cost the public a lot of money and it's questionable if there ever will be an upside to it, economically.

If anything, Merkel caused this. It's doubtful Brexit would have gone through if not for the Syrian crisis and how the EU and Merkel have dealt with it.

Yes!

England and The Netherlands (where I live) actually have very low unemployment under former refugees and former colonies from the past decades. The bigger problem seems to be that the lower social classes don't get the right opportunities as the more fortunate people. Unfortunately (former) refugees and immigrants from the former colonies fall mostly into this category. The populist parties like the "freedom party" in Hollander get their voters from the white members from these social classes, but it has noting to do with "those bloody foreigners ". Actually, they are, at the moment, our only solution for a much bigger problem: we're getting old! Our society is collapsing because we don't make enough new people, so we need to massively import them!

As a member of The Netherlands, the creator of multi culturaism (because of our salve trading business next to our drugs empire in the past) I'm deelply sadden that we are once again all following the right wing nut jobs who devide us and want us to believe that one person is better then the other only because where he's from.

I'm a 40 y/o white, smart, blonde tall man without defects living in one of the richest countries in the world with one of the best health care and education and it was all down to luck. I did absolutely nothing to deserve this. The same for refugees. They did nothing to deserve a war. Or being not a white male living in a beautiful country. Why am I more entitled then them?

There is a war. They deserve peace.

[Tommy Cookers]

@ Jolle
please feel free to give away your country
but don't feel free to give away mine (the UK)

the UK gives $16000000000 annually in public foreign aid and takes every genuine asylum applicant (refugee)
EU aid eg to the Syrian crisis (which the UK part contributes) is disgracefully small
collapse to the funding of refugee camps has triggered the movement of Syrians

the migrant crisis is basically an economic-migrant crisis more than a refugee crisis (eg the Libya route)
half those who Merkel invited in (then wanted others to rehome) were opportunistic economic migrants from Kosovo etc, even Iran

the UK minimum wage is up to 8x the minimum wage in poor Eastern EU countries, especially as the Euro has been so weak
and the UK taxpayer pays the low-waged ('working family') a large lump sum annually - the so-called 'tax credit'
but the country runs on a huge public debt, and so is actually economically smaller/less rich than it appears on paper

[Ennis]

1. 'Foreigners' contribute more to the UK economy than they take out. Given we run at a deficit, this means British people must suck out more than they contribute. If all you care about is the economy, let's kick British people out of Britain. Freedom of movement should help us do that.

2. Do we as a species lack compassion to an extent that the economy and numbers are all that matters? I will happily take in as many refugees as we can possibly sustain, even if it means my quality of life drops a tiny, tiny fraction of a percent.

3. Does anyone have a full breakdown, or anything resembling it, of how and in which currency teams are paid?

[Phil]

In Switzerland, that has a rather high rate of refugees, the employment rate among these people is actually very very low. So low in fact, that these people have been a far higher burden to our social care systems. Now I'm not talking about the EU immigrants of course, the EU citizens that have been allowed to live here as per the free movement directive - but actual immigrants/refugees out of poorer, less fortunate countries. Countries like Eritrea, other parts of Africa and yes, Syria, Iraq as well. Many of these people are unable to find jobs. That's a matter of fact.

1.) First of all, these jobs to employ them don't exist in these numbers. The economy doesn't grow from one day to the next.
2.) The language / educational barrier
3.) How much does a nation have to invest first in order to make them employable? How many years of support?
4.) Does your country have minimum-wages? If yes, it only makes it even harder to employ people that don't speak your language and even a lower degree of education! (PS: Switzerland does not)
5.) Have you actually followed any report since the last year on what this Syria crisis is going to cause? How much money? What deficit? Also, it's not as if the EU and its nations has been healthy before this mass scale immigration started to take place.

Some like to see this wave of refugees/immigrants as the next economical revolution. Perhaps if one looks at them as cheap labor, but this "cheap labor" will only cause your own nation jobs to decrease in value (in the long run). And this is before you start to wonder what cultural impact this all has and perhaps why the public is less enthusiastic about taking them all in.

I see these as very valid reasons as to why one would want to support Brexit. Yes, maybe they've all gambled a bit too much, maybe now reality is about to set in that it won't be as rosy path into glorious times ahead, but at least Britain now will be able to dictate what is right for them on their own terms, without having to follow a political path of the EU that may not suit themselves. And there is a reason why there is a shift in government throughout the EU. Not many are happy about things, but not all of them are in the same position to do something against it.

It's all nice and good to want to expand the economy, make it grow, even through a large increase in population, but one has to ask how big the net benefit is per citizen.

[Ennis]

In Switzerland, that has a rather high rate of refugees, the employment rate among these people is actually very very low. So low in fact, that these people have been a far higher burden to our social care systems. Now I'm not talking about the EU immigrants of course, the EU citizens that have been allowed to live here as per the free movement directive - but actual immigrants/refugees out of poorer, less fortunate countries. Countries like Eritrea, other parts of Africa and yes, Syria, Iraq as well. Many of these people are unable to find jobs. That's a matter of fact.

1.) First of all, these jobs to employ them don't exist in these numbers. The economy doesn't grow from one day to the next.
2.) The language / educational barrier
3.) How much does a nation have to invest first in order to make them employable? How many years of support?
4.) Does your country have minimum-wages? If yes, it only makes it even harder to employ people that don't speak your language and even a lower degree of education! (PS: Switzerland does not)
5.) Have you actually followed any report since the last year on what this Syria crisis is going to cause? How much money? What deficit? Also, it's not as if the EU and its nations has been healthy before this mass scale immigration started to take place.

Some like to see this wave of refugees/immigrants as the next economical revolution. Perhaps if one looks at them as cheap labor, but this "cheap labor" will only cause your own nation jobs to decrease in value (in the long run). And this is before you start to wonder what cultural impact this all has and perhaps why the public is less enthusiastic about taking them all in.

I see these as very valid reasons as to why one would want to support Brexit. Yes, maybe they've all gambled a bit too much, maybe now reality is about to set in that it won't be as rosy path into glorious times ahead, but at least Britain now will be able to dictate what is right for them on their own terms, without having to follow a political path of the EU that may not suit themselves. And there is a reason why there is a shift in government throughout the EU. Not many are happy about things, but not all of them are in the same position to do something against it.

It's all nice and good to want to expand the economy, make it grow, even through a large increase in population, but one has to ask how big the net benefit is per citizen.

Firstly, you said yourself that you're not talking about those within the EU who are entitled to freedom of movement. The UK ALREADY controlled which refugees were accepted. Leaving the EU will not make any difference in this regard.

Secondly, I really do despair in humans. Is this what it boils down too? Our Western world set the wheels in motion for your world to be destroyed, but f*ck off back there because we don't want a tiny, tiny decrease in our standard of living?

The public is often so unenthusiastic as they're led by a agenda-driven media. People across the political spectrum in the UK over-estimate the number of people scamming benefits, they over-estimate people on benefits, the over-estimate the impact this has in the grand scheme of the economy, the over-estimate the number of migrants, they over-estimate the number of refugees, and so on... Why? Because the media continues to peddle this as their top news items, picking out individual worst case scenarios, and people get a skewed perspective on things. For as long as the poor fight amongst themselves they won't trouble the powerful. Fantastic deflection.

[Phil]

Firstly, you said yourself that you're not talking about those within the EU who are entitled to freedom of movement. The UK ALREADY controlled which refugees were accepted. Leaving the EU will not make any difference in this regard.

Secondly, I really do despair in humans. Is this what it boils down too? Our Western world set the wheels in motion for your world to be destroyed, but f*ck off back there because we don't want a tiny, tiny decrease in our standard of living?

There are different discussions at play here. One was in regards to the free movement directive and its impact, the other towards the Syrian crisis and what that will lead to and what it has or will have caused.

You can not possibly believe at worst we're looking at a tiny tiny decrease in our standard of living. Just look at the depth most countries are in. Who do you think will come up with that in the end? I tell you what - the least who get to burden this are the politicians pulling the strings. It's the public who does, the middle and lower class ultimately. And our children.

I also think it's far fetched to believe Europe is and should be a safe-heaven for millions of people out to look for a more promising life. Is it fair? No. But is it realistic to believe everyone can be helped [by inviting them here]? What happens after Syria? What about the billions of other people suffering from hunger? Maybe they should come here too? The amusing thing is, is that the politicians who are actively talking about the up-sides of this, the "economic revolution" and are supposedly humanitarian for saying that, are playing on the fact that they are going to be cheap labor. And at the same time, we're robbing these countries of their best ability to build themselves up. Should people be helped in a time of crisis? Absolutely. But is it realistic to invite them all here and care and support them for decades with zero realistic outlook of them leaving? No. That can not be the answer either. The worst part of it, is that these things should have been planned and considered accordingly, not one nation (Merkel) taking initiative and burdening the rest of the EU with it in the process. And Brexit is as much a direct result of that.

[turbof1]

Phil, you might have forgotten how the US came to be one of the economic powerhouses of the world. But to avoid too long of a discussion I'll answer short on a few core elements:

You can not possibly believe at worst we're looking at a tiny tiny decrease in our standard of living.

No you indeed can't believe you are looking at a tiny tiny decrease. We are looking at a big increase compared to none-immigration. People are getting too old. Who is going to pay taxes and healthcare in the future? The ever smaller becoming base of young people?



You can be demeaning ('under qualified' and 'culturally different') all you like, but that's the reality: either you'll have larger percentage of immigration filling up the holes in the workforce, or pensions and healthcare will get a very unhealthy cut. Then you can complain how immigrants which were not welcome did not take up the jobs that are left open by all the home grown people who felt too good to clean a toilet. Sounds harsh? That's unfortunaly the reality.

Does not mean we suddenly have to get as many immigrants inside our country borders as we possibly can. Europe is big enough to spread the immigrants in a healthy way, and almost all of the european countries have the same population aging issue.

Just to give some comparable numbers: immigration in this period will cost Belgium 2 billion euros a year, which does sound significant. However: paying rent yearly on our fabulous debts is 13 billion. Those 13 billion is wasted money, but those 2 billion euros will pay itself back within 20 years when we otherwise would need to take over 3/4 salary away from your average employee to sustain pension and social security systems. For the jobs you deem immigrants "underqualified" (you really should look for numbers, as percentage wise there are a lot of doctors, engineers and other highly educated people who are immigrants), there is education to solve that issue.

[Phil]

Turbo,

Just to be clear; It was not my intention to be demeaning in any way. When I was speaking about 'under qualified' and 'culturally different' I was saying this as factual as one can. It's a matter of indisputable fact. Culturally different doesn't necessarily have to be bad - it all depends in what quantities and how willing to adapt they are. There is a difference if immigrants are coming en mass that carry the same ethos and culture, perhaps comparable education or are vastly different. Given that this angle to the whole EU/Brexit discussion is the least wanted on this forum, lets just agree to disagree and the basis that everyone has their own opinion given what the country they live in, what they have seen and experienced.

On the 'under qualified' bit however, that's just it. There have been countless of discussions on this matter since the Syrian crisis started and people have started to flood over the EUs borders. There is a language barrier. There is also the educational barrier. Yes, people can adapt, but this will come at a cost. I find it a bit baffling that you are showing graphs highlighting a somewhat natural problem and progression of aging population... as if millions of refugees that won't be integrateable into the market for decades will solve that.... by costing the public even more?

I'm fairly certain I can dig up numbers being thrown around here from Switzerland. Actual statistics that show that most refugees, however unfortunate that may be or seem, have difficulties finding jobs. They live off our social care (that is operating at a net loss) and that since years. It's not because they are of different race (or something along those lines), it's because they lack the education (on paper), possibly language barrier and the market is simply saturated in those sectors by other people already, most likely from the EU and the free movement directive. If you live in a country like the UK that has minimum wages (I believe) or Germany, good luck - who in gods name will employ a person who doesn't speak the language, has no comparable education to show for when they are already more than enough to choose from and you have to pay a certain minimum anyway? Who wouldn't be picky?

Yes, EU across all its nations could sustain millions of refugees if they wanted to. But do they want to? None of them asked for it and not all nations inside the EU are actually wealthy and could afford to. You might be forgetting the state the EU was actually in before the Syrian crisis hit. Greece? Spain? Italy? There's more to the EU than just its wealthiest nations. And what does wealthy mean anyway? Wealth in economic sense? How many of those people, every day citizens are actually that wealthy? On a per citizen basis?

Sorry, I'm not seeing it.

But we're talking about economics here. There's more to it than just economics. At least here, I can tell you that many people are not willing to give up our countries identity at the prospect of being a bigger player on the global market. How much of a living-standard does one have, if we have given it up all for it? Our roads, public transportation is already at the limit. We're growing by 1% every single year because of immigration. We're growing at the rate of a city per year. Yet we are already densely populated and the net benefit for each single citizen is going down. When is enough enough? On one hand we have our politicians telling us that we need more of them, yet at the same time, jobs are being devalued (as a result of cheaper labor coming in). It's impacting our jobs and lives too. Not short term, but long term.