Any lap time predictions for winter testing?

[godlameroso]

Any guesses as to how fast the new breed of cars, unrestricted by silly tokens, will be once we get to testing in a few months?

We have no clue as to how fast next year's cars will be, I think that we'll be disappointed in that the cars aren't tremendously different. They'll be faster but won't seem like it, because the change won't be as great as expected.

5 seconds faster than 2014 would put lap times right around 2010 levels 1:19 ish.
If we compare to 2015 that means pole would be 1:18, and 1:17 if we compare this year. A 1:17 around Barcelona is insane, that means that even with the hair pins, and slow corners in sector 3 the car would have to average around 218km/h and I don't think the drivers could physically deal with speeds much faster than that without needing special suits.

[Gaz.]

Usually times in winter testing are faster than the May pole time, Raikkonen was 4 tenths faster on the penultimate day of the last test than his Q3 time for the race. This time however I wonder if the driver's necks will be too fatigued by the time they are ready to do qualifying simulation runs in the test programs and therefore be faster in May when they've had a few months to get used to the step change in speeds. Also some of the teams have said there will be a devolvement war with a constant stream of updates which could also compensate for the climatic conditions vs winter testing.

Aldo Costa said in a short VT that the 2017 cars will be the fastest F1 cars ever built and I see no reason why they won't obliterate Webber's 2010 pole lap of 1.19. Even if the racing is utter tedium, I cannot wait to see how fast they can actually go.

[godlameroso]

Raikkonen's lap was set with super softs IIRC, which are not tires that are used during the race. If I had to guess I'd say we'll see some mid 18's during testing and the best pace during long runs will be in the 24's to mid 25's. Hamilton did low 1:28's to mid 1:27's during winter testing. I say this because the current crop of cars are some 6 seconds faster qualifying than in the race.

[FrukostScones]

1.18.9

[Pierce89]

I think the fastest laps will be in the 17s.

[Juzh]

1.18 guaranteed I'd say.

[misterbeam]

The fastest laptime will be around low 18s, i also think that we won't see a big grip differences between compounds next season .

[godlameroso]

The fastest laptime will be around low 18s, i also think that we won't see a big grip differences between compounds next season .

Keeping that topic, do you think that we'll still have similar degradation? Alternatively the lack of difference stemming from the different wear rates, and performances of the different tires will make them more or less equally fast over a stint?

In other words one compound may suit a smooth driver who manages it, while another compound may suit a more aggressive driver, while another suits another who has a hybrid style? And part of the pace comes from being able to work the tires?

[f1316]

I don't remember where I read it now - have a feeling it may have been either BBC or sky's website - but they seemed to be saying that Pirelli had an inherent lack of understanding of tyres of the previous sizes.

The article's thesis was that the wider tyre would be more familiar to them and spread the load more evenly, resulting in more gradually degrading tyres.

Nice if true, not sure if I bought it though. If someone else read it, please add the link.

[Juzh]

They certainly didn't object to wider tire specs in the slightest .

[godlameroso]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7q1sByzeDMA

If this is anything to go by race pace laps could be in the 1:24's which is right around fastest lap in 2010 in the race. In 2010 the cars were 620kg + 150kg of fuel, which meant race weight was 770kg, vs 722 + 105kg for this year means race weight is 827kg, or a 57kg increase. However, in 2010 the cars were much faster when they were low on fuel, the cars could go down to 622kg by the end of the race, the 2017 cars will weigh 95kg more by the end of the race. So if race pace laps are around 1:24 it will be very impressive especially considering the weight penalty these cars have in comparison to 2010.

[Andres125sx]

I'd say we'll see some mid 18's during testing and the best pace during long runs will be in the 24's to mid 25's.

That´s depressing. I know it´s not new, but 6 seconds difference between qualifying and race is unaceptable

If Pirelli can make more resistant tires with the new size and this difference is reduced that would be great

[Andres125sx]

...95kg more by the end of the race, or the equivalent one average sized American woman

You bad boy

[Juzh]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7q1sByzeDMA

If this is anything to go by race pace laps could be in the 1:24's which is right around fastest lap in 2010 in the race.

But still 2-3s slower than 2008.

[godlameroso]

I couldn't go that far back, was race pace really in the low 20's back then? Granted there was refueling, maybe by 2018 they can get close to that, but not this year.