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For the first few races before the development war shadows the smaller teams...
Mercedes
Torro Rosso
Red Bull
Ferrari
Mclaren
Force India
Renault
Haas
Williams
Sauber
I think Renault, Mclaren and Red Bull will improve over the season relatively, and the others drop back. The Ferrari is a bit of a joker in the pack as I not sure of the development potential of those sidepod intakes, I'm not sure if they're going to help or hinder bargeboard/floor development in the long run.
I was almost tempted to put the Mclaren 3rd but I think they'll run the engine detuned to start with as it doesn't hurt them as much with no tokens.
I don't think Mercedes will have lost its considerable lead right away. Even without Rosberg and Paddy Lowe, there's enough depth in their organization to compensate for those losses. Ditto for RBR and Ferrari, although I admit I might underestimate the impact of Allison's departure.
So the $64,000 question is whether or not McLaren and Honda are finally ready to reclaim their position among the top teams. If they continue to plod on the way they have these last two seasons, I think 2017 will be very much business as usual.
Williams probably did well out off the Bottas deal with Mercedes and it'll be interesting to see what Lowe will bring to the table? However, I don't expect a very big leap in competitiveness right away.
Renault is another unknown to me. I haven't been keeping up, so I'm not sure just how far they have come. But I do think their car is the best looking, fwiw. I'm not expecting too much, but won't rule out the possibility of a "2009 BrawnGP"-like surprise, with Hulkenberg in the role of Jenson Button.
I expect the rest of the teams to be around where they were last season.
In Australia:
1. Merc
+.3s Ferrari
+.4s Red Bull
+.6s STR
+.8s Force India
+1.0s McLaren
+1.3s Renault
+1.5s Williams
+1.6s Haas
+2.0s Sauber
By the end of the year
1. Red Bull [WDC - RIC]
+.1s Mercedes [WCC (close)]
+.5s Ferrari
+.9s McLaren
+1.0s STR
+1.2s Force India
+1.3s Renault
+1.5s Williams
+1.8s Haas
+2.5s Sauber
"You can't argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience"
- Mark Twain
1. Mercedes
+.45s Red Bull
+.65s Ferrari
+1.15s STR
+1.25s Williams
+1.40s Force India
+1.50s McLaren
+1.65s Renault
+1.65s Haas
+2.35s Sauber
This is all based on what I have read about the power units so far. Mercedes said they improved their PU in everything (0.6-1s gain maybe), so based on that, I think it's safe to say they will easily beat Red Bull, probably with even bigger margins than I posted. Renault said they improved their engine with a gain of 0.3s per lap, so assuming Red Bull has slightly better aerodynamics than Mercedes, they stand where I predicted them to.
Ferrari is the big unknown here, they have been very silent about their car, haven't talked about their Engine at all, and neither has the Haas (Sauber is using 2016 PU as I recently learned), so there's 2 options, either they made minimal improvements, like 0.15s per lap, or they have made some serious gains, and don't wanna talk about it, like a minimum of 0.5s per lap, possibly even more. I find it hard to believe so, which is why I ranked them third, about 0.65s behind Mercedes, thinking they have improved their Aerodynamics a little bit, but if they have really improved their PU, then they would be 2nd, around 0.35s behind Mercedes.
The rest is probably gonna be 1+ seconds from Mercedes, I think the gap between the mid teams and the top 3 will be even bigger than last year, maybe that excludes the Toro Rosso, Renault, and McLaren if their claims about reaching Mercedes 2016 PU levels are true. Sauber seems like a slow car, having budget problems and an old engine.
from what I think it will be:
1. Red Bull
2. Ferrari
3. Mercedes
4. Force India
5. McLaren
6. Toro Rosso
7. Renault
8. Williams
9. Sauber
10. Haas
after 1st Testing round:
1. Mercedes (mighty sandbagging)
2. RedBull (very stealthy)
2.5 Ferrari (good, but how good?)
4. Renault
5. Williams (if only theyhad 2 decent drivers like BUE and BUT)
6.Force India (worse than Williams I think atm)
7. Haas
8. Toro Rosso
9. Sauber
10. McLaren (too much rake, PU a big )
Finishing races is important, but racing is more important.
Autosport, Published on Thursday March 2nd 2017 wrote:Some in the paddock suspect Ferrari has been running light on fuel during this week's first test, which has amplified its performance, though others believe the encouraging early displays of pace are genuine. Red Bull reckons it is roughly level with Ferrari as things stand, and probably two or three tenths adrift of Mercedes.
Christian Horner
"Mercedes look competitive, Ferrari look competitive - for us, we've had a sensible first week, and got some really good feedback from the car. We're very much focused on our own programme. Early days, but we're content with progress so far."
"But the RB13 looks like the basis of a good car, and of course with immature regulations development is going to come thick and fast - event to event. It's going to be a development race really, from this point now all the way to Abu Dhabi.
Q: You just mentioned that the RB13 is very clean and neat - the opposite, some might argue, to the Mercedes car. Is that a different philosophy, or later on will we see the Red Bull getting much more complicated?
AN: We will see some new parts coming on. But first we wanted to keep it clean and simple so we understand what we have. Maybe Mercedes has reached a higher level of maturity, but I like to start with a simple and clean car - and then you can start adding to it. If you start on a highly complicated level it is so easy to get lost.
That tells, the car is not going to remain as simple, by next test and by Melbourne
I'm just going to predict too (more for amusement, because it would be interesting to go back, say after Melbourne and see who was right):
1.) Mercedes
2.) RedBull
3.) Ferrari
4.) Toro Rosso
5.) Williams
6.) Renault
7.) McLaren
....
Predicting the last 4 is painful. I think McLaren might be there somewhere. Top 3, I think RedBull is severely underestimated, perhaps due to what might have been low-fuel-laps by Ferrari. I think when all is accounted for, RedBull might be very very close to Mercedes despite any PU difference there might be. I wouldn't be surprised if Newey has somehow pulled off the impossible. On the other hand, if the package has flaws, it might see them fall way back (due to unreliability) for a couple of races. We will see.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II #Team44 supporter
Haas
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