2017 Australian Grand Prix - Melbourne, 24 - 26 March

[iotar__]

I'm surprised everyone isn't a little bit more excited (including the commentators).

Here's a list of all the exciting things from qualifying:

- finally we have a car that's capable of fighting the Mercedes; it's clearly not quite as good (look no further than Bottas vs Kimi) but it's close enough for a fight - exactly what we've all been waiting for for years!!

- as a result of which, we have the two most successful drivers going head to head; a fight between Vettel in Hamilton in two different cars is like the Schumacher/Hakkinen years

- this is also linked to the fact that the drivers are now clearly making a difference; you can see much more where a driver is doing something dramatic and finding time as a result (see Grosjeans's lap or lots of what Alonso was doing)

I agree on some points, disagree on others:
- competition at the top is cool but let's not get carried away yet. New suspension rules affected the order, quietly and behind the scenes Brawn\Budkowski\evil American capitalists did a rather brutal job and trimmed two top teams, not that obvious and unlikely under Bernard E. What happened to "our cars are perfectly legal"?

- You might say Brawn and Todt are helping Ferrari . RB is in transitional period on top of other things, Merc most likely too. Not a huge impact but it takes time.

- dividing Ham-Vett and Bott-Raikk is all wrong. Raikk is 0,5 behind, past successes don't add you speed and if I were you I wouldn't build wishful thinking championship fight from 0,3 on one track.

- you might attribute Grosjean's perfect lap to new cars but he had plenty of those in the old ones (Spa '15, Brazil '16, Singapore '15) that F1 experts running redbull infomercials missed. Speaking of: Marko was worried too much about Bottas and not enough about their own drivers, Ricciardo too . Egg on the face buddy.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Mercedes vs Ferrari

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AV6KRnz4Uc

Either Ferrari went with a bit more DF setup therefore resulting in a bit faster cornering and lower straight line speed, or Merc still has 10-15HP more. Maybe both.

No, almost nothing. If anything, Merc has a tiny bit more downforce (may be just a click on the wing). If you carefully observe the video by pausing, you will notice that, at the START line, Lewis is inches ahead and by the time they reach first corner, Vettel seems an inch ahead, but Lewis carries more speed and exits the sequence of 1 and 2 quicker than Vettel. By corner 3, Lewis is half a car length ahead. By corner 5, the difference is less than half a car's length. By fifteenth corner, the difference was just half a car's length, but crucially, Lewis again carries slightly more speed. Vettel reels back some of Lewis' advantage whenever they are on the straights.

So, it was a just a small difference in driving and there was almost nothing in cars. Atleast, that is what you can see from that video.
Start


First Corner


Corner 3


Corner 15


Exit of Last corner

[atanatizante]

1. Lewis did his speed of 325,5km/h on local hour 18:06:20 so on his last quick lap in Q3 but Bottas did his 321.1km/h on the local hour 17:27:03. Vettel also did his fastest speed 322km/h on his last lap (18:07:29)
So in case of Lewis and Vettel they turn the wick to the max on that last lap or it was just the driver`s reserve?

2. Vettel was fastest in S3 having 1,5 tenths from Lewis and 2 tenths from Bottas. Ferrari was always faster in S3 all weekend.This is due to Ferrari having better traction, W08 having a longer wheelbase, car`s setup or just it`s the driver?

3. So we should see a straightforward 2 stop strategy tomorrow after all. Or maybe a one stop one in case of somebody on the first 2 rows messing the start. Then he should make a US-S strategy alive, isn`t it? But in case Lewis and Vettel are touching at the start and ending 5 places backwards who do you think will win the race? Botas or Kimi?

[Juzh]

Mercedes vs Ferrari

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AV6KRnz4Uc

Either Ferrari went with a bit more DF setup therefore resulting in a bit faster cornering and lower straight line speed, or Merc still has 10-15HP more. Maybe both.

No, almost nothing. If anything, Merc has a tiny bit more downforce (may be just a click on the wing). If you carefully observe the video by pausing, you will notice that, at the START line, Lewis is inches ahead and by the time they reach first corner, Vettel seems an inch ahead, but Lewis carries more speed and exits the sequence of 1 and 2 quicker than Vettel. By corner 3, Lewis is half a car length ahead. By corner 5, the difference is less than half a car's length. By fifteenth corner, the difference was just half a car's length, but crucially, Lewis again carries slightly more speed. Vettel reels back some of Lewis' advantage whenever they are on the straights.

So, it was a just a small difference in driving and there was almost nothing in cars. Atleast, that is what you can see from that video.
Start
https://i.gyazo.com/5ef0b1c1bc864e6108f ... 28a80f.jpg

First Corner
https://i.gyazo.com/1cf41af5ee75eba23a6 ... ff97bc.jpg

Corner 3
https://i.gyazo.com/29ae82f10ad0c56baec ... 36e527.jpg

Corner 15
https://i.gyazo.com/a9c9fe3e019b64d1e1c ... 18590f.jpg

Exit of Last corner
https://i.gyazo.com/461ee1c2845d063c48c ... 9cceb8.jpg

Lets not kid ourselves here. Merc has much better end of straight ERS deployment. Ferrari has got nothing on merc in that aspect.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Either Ferrari went with a bit more DF setup therefore resulting in a bit faster cornering and lower straight line speed, or Merc still has 10-15HP more. Maybe both.

No, almost nothing. If anything, Merc has a tiny bit more downforce (may be just a click on the wing). If you carefully observe the video by pausing, you will notice that, at the START line, Lewis is inches ahead and by the time they reach first corner, Vettel seems an inch ahead, but Lewis carries more speed and exits the sequence of 1 and 2 quicker than Vettel. By corner 3, Lewis is half a car length ahead. By corner 5, the difference is less than half a car's length. By fifteenth corner, the difference was just half a car's length, but crucially, Lewis again carries slightly more speed. Vettel reels back some of Lewis' advantage whenever they are on the straights.

So, it was a just a small difference in driving and there was almost nothing in cars. Atleast, that is what you can see from that video.
Start
https://i.gyazo.com/5ef0b1c1bc864e6108f ... 28a80f.jpg

First Corner
https://i.gyazo.com/1cf41af5ee75eba23a6 ... ff97bc.jpg

Corner 3
https://i.gyazo.com/29ae82f10ad0c56baec ... 36e527.jpg

Corner 15
https://i.gyazo.com/a9c9fe3e019b64d1e1c ... 18590f.jpg

Exit of Last corner
https://i.gyazo.com/461ee1c2845d063c48c ... 9cceb8.jpg

Lets not kid ourselves here. Merc has much better end of straight ERS deployment. Ferrari has got nothing on merc in that aspect.

I don't think it was that obvious. May be you are right, but we might witness it in China and Russia as Australia does not have such long straights. Who knows.

[Juzh]

No, almost nothing. If anything, Merc has a tiny bit more downforce (may be just a click on the wing). If you carefully observe the video by pausing, you will notice that, at the START line, Lewis is inches ahead and by the time they reach first corner, Vettel seems an inch ahead, but Lewis carries more speed and exits the sequence of 1 and 2 quicker than Vettel. By corner 3, Lewis is half a car length ahead. By corner 5, the difference is less than half a car's length. By fifteenth corner, the difference was just half a car's length, but crucially, Lewis again carries slightly more speed. Vettel reels back some of Lewis' advantage whenever they are on the straights.

So, it was a just a small difference in driving and there was almost nothing in cars. Atleast, that is what you can see from that video.
Start
https://i.gyazo.com/5ef0b1c1bc864e6108f ... 28a80f.jpg

First Corner
https://i.gyazo.com/1cf41af5ee75eba23a6 ... ff97bc.jpg

Corner 3
https://i.gyazo.com/29ae82f10ad0c56baec ... 36e527.jpg

Corner 15
https://i.gyazo.com/a9c9fe3e019b64d1e1c ... 18590f.jpg

Exit of Last corner
https://i.gyazo.com/461ee1c2845d063c48c ... 9cceb8.jpg

Lets not kid ourselves here. Merc has much better end of straight ERS deployment. Ferrari has got nothing on merc in that aspect.

I don't think it was that obvious. May be you are right, but we might witness it in China and Russia as Australia does not have such long straights. Who knows.

It's actually the short straights where merc is much better. Check middle sector and after T12.

[f1316]

I'm surprised everyone isn't a little bit more excited (including the commentators).

Here's a list of all the exciting things from qualifying:

- finally we have a car that's capable of fighting the Mercedes; it's clearly not quite as good (look no further than Bottas vs Kimi) but it's close enough for a fight - exactly what we've all been waiting for for years!!

- as a result of which, we have the two most successful drivers going head to head; a fight between Vettel in Hamilton in two different cars is like the Schumacher/Hakkinen years

- this is also linked to the fact that the drivers are now clearly making a difference; you can see much more where a driver is doing something dramatic and finding time as a result (see Grosjeans's lap or lots of what Alonso was doing)

I agree on some points, disagree on others:
- competition at the top is cool but let's not get carried away yet. New suspension rules affected the order, quietly and behind the scenes Brawn\Budkowski\evil American capitalists did a rather brutal job and trimmed two top teams, not that obvious and unlikely under Bernard E. What happened to "our cars are perfectly legal"?

- You might say Brawn and Todt are helping Ferrari . RB is in transitional period on top of other things, Merc most likely too. Not a huge impact but it takes time.

- dividing Ham-Vett and Bott-Raikk is all wrong. Raikk is 0,5 behind, past successes don't add you speed and if I were you I wouldn't build wishful thinking championship fight from 0,3 on one track.

- you might attribute Grosjean's perfect lap to new cars but he had plenty of those in the old ones (Spa '15, Brazil '16, Singapore '15) that F1 experts running redbull infomercials missed. Speaking of: Marko was worried too much about Bottas and not enough about their own drivers, Ricciardo too . Egg on the face buddy.

Well i don't know what basis we would have for saying the two top cars are any more than 3 tenths apart; we'll have to see but the only evidence we have suggests they are no more than that (and quite possibly even closer since arguably Lewis performed slightly better on the respective laps). I personally think from observing the Ferrari it will be better suited to the subsequent two races and the gap even closer/non-existent, but don't really have any evidence of that yet (other than that they seemed happier at Barcelona than Albert Park, which is not usually that representative).

In terms of the driver having more impact, again (and this goes for pretty much everything) there's very little evidence to base any conclusions so far, but there is a pattern in multiple teams where teammates are separated by large gaps. That's been far less prevalent in recent years, and we'll see if it continues, but I suspect from what we've seen so far that it might.

[snowy]

Sebastian appeared to trying a lot harder than Lewis, also I wouldn't be at all surprised if Mercedes are conserving their engines...

[hollus]

F1fanatic made a corner by corner comparison of the 2016 and 2017 pole laps in Melbourne, with all apex and end of straight speeds:
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/03/25/l ... melbourne/
Plenty of difference in the fast corners, but tiny differences to apex speeds in the slowest corners. Top speeds similar by combining the higher corner exit speeds and the higher drag.
I hadn't expected the slow corners to be this close... can the extra car width actually be hurting them in those? The cars are 20 cm wider, effectively making corner radii 20 cm smaller. In a long sweeping corner in Barcelona, that is almost insignificant, but in the street corners of Melbourne, maybe it matters? If the corner radius is 10m, the corner is 2% tighter in 2017 compared to 2016.

[Juzh]

F1fanatic made a corner by corner comparison of the 2016 and 2017 pole laps in Melbourne, with all apex and end of straight speeds:
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/03/25/l ... melbourne/
Plenty of difference in the fast corners, but tiny differences to apex speeds in the slowest corners. Top speeds similar by combining the higher corner exit speeds and the higher drag.
I hadn't expected the slow corners to be this close... can the extra car width actually be hurting them in those? The cars are 20 cm wider, effectively making corner radii 20 cm smaller. In a long sweeping corner in Barcelona, that is almost insignificant, but in the street corners of Melbourne, maybe it matters? If the corner radius is 10m, the corner is 2% tighter in 2017 compared to 2016.

But then again, Rai was a lot quicker in the final sector in barcelona testing (vs 2016).

[f1316]

Sebastian appeared to trying a lot harder than Lewis, also I wouldn't be at all surprised if Mercedes are conserving their engines...

No chance Mercedes would be turning down engines to an extent that risked them not getting a 1-2.

Sometimes we have to accept the evidence even if it contradicts the commonly held 'truths' (e.g. Adrian Newey can do nothing wrong, Mercedes have several seconds in their pocket that for some reason they don't want to use, Ferrari - or, for that matter, anyone Italian /Mediterranean - are completely inept and incapable of building a good car...)

[Phil]

Sebastian appeared to trying a lot harder than Lewis, also I wouldn't be at all surprised if Mercedes are conserving their engines...

This is my impression too (re: Vettel trying harder). Hamilton was very calm and very consistent. No mistakes. Also, his steering inputs were precise and controlled. Compare this to last year, or the year before when both Mercedes were all out fighting for every single tenths and made a few errors under pressure. Either Hamilton is very confident (maybe due to his new team mate) or the car was that good. Vettel, also by his own admission, was perhaps overdriving a bit. This to me suggests that the margin is what it is, if not more.

I'd guess that on a proper race track, the gap could be bigger than on a cold bumpy track such as Melbourne.

@GPR-A: nice analysis! But i dont agree with the half car length gaps and think you are being fooled by perspective of the camera a bit. A 3 tenth gap at 300kmh would suggest a gap of 25 meters. At half speed, its 12.5 meters. Given the cars are roughly 5m in length would suggest anything from 2.5 up to more than 5 car lengths ahead. Given that Vettel clawed back some of the deficit he had in S3 to end almost 3 tenths behind would suggest that at some point the gap was >= ~3 tenths.

[ferkan]

Then again Bottas looked like he pushed the most and ended up 3rd.

I think its likely that Ham found perfect setup, whe Vettel had touch oversteery car. Coupled with what looks like ~10-15hp less, it would be pretty damn hard to match Hamilton.

[ringo]

Mercedes vs Ferrari

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AV6KRnz4Uc

One thing that struck me on watching that is that Vettel seems to be having to do a lot more steering wheel inputs than Hamilton.

That may have to do with the feeling of the car from the driver; or driving style based on confidence with the grip.
I think Hamilton is very confident with the new regs, and doesn't need to dabble around feeling for how far to turn in or correct. As for Vettel he still has his early on the throttle style from rebdull days, and maybe has to put in more inputs to keep the car under control.
I am not sure if the inputs say much about the potential of either car at this stage.

In fact, vettel's s1 has much smoother steering than Hamilton's. It's really as you go into the mid-speed sections where vettel does his early on the throttle thing, that he has to correct a bit more. I would say the cars look fairly equal in the video.

[dans79]

Then again Bottas looked like he pushed the most and ended up 3rd.

I think its likely that Ham found perfect setup, whe Vettel had touch oversteery car.

To me, the pattern that is starting to emerge, is that the cars are very grip sensitive. Thus the driver have to find the limit, and then make sure he doesn't go over it. If he does go over the limit, he will slide the read and lose time. If he goes too far over, he'll spin out as we've seen several times already this year.