2017 Bahrain Grand Prix - Sakhir, April 14-16

[f1316]

I feel like I should doubt whether we know the real difference or not.
-In China, we didn't see how Mercs or Ferraris work on the softest compound.
-We definitely saw the harder compound, but it was never close combat for Vet or Ham, Australia or China.They were just cruising and "bullying" each other to the end.

As far I can see, on the harder compound, Mercs are still ahead.As long as tyres don't blister, Mercedes is the car to beat.
But, Hamilton is obliged (well, kind of) to start on the softest compound -that being SS- and put some laps with it.I think that Hamilton's pace on the first stint will be the decisive factor, other things equal.
So, I can see a difference between China and Bahrain.And that is the first stint on the SS which was absent in China.

And of course now we need to balance some things like Bahrain being a power circuit, being hard on the brakes, being hot and not muggy, being rear-end.
Taking the characteristics into account, I think Mercedes will come on top again.I think Bahrain flatters their car.

Some cheap shots
Quali
1.Hamilton
2.Bottas
3.Vettel

Bottas NEEDS to come back by pushing the Ferrari into second row.Just making their work difficult

Race
1.Hamilton
2.Vettel
3.Bottas

From Hamilton: which basically negates your spin about bahrain flattering the Mercedes.:


“Being that it’s often a warmer race, Ferrari is very good in hotter conditions,” said Hamilton.
Shanghai saw very low track temperatures of less than 15C on race day. “These were quite good conditions with our car,” said Hamilton.
Hamilton believes his car’s performance in warmer conditions will “definitely be better than it was in Melbourne”, where Sebastian Vettel’s Ferrari outraced him to victory.“When it steps up in temperature, so far in the first race it’s been shown as not the greatest for us just yet, so we’re just learning on the tyres.”
Hamilton believes his car’s performance in warmer conditions will “definitely be better than it was in Melbourne”, where Sebastian Vettel’s Ferrari outraced him to victory.

Add to that some thoughts from James Allen that I agree with:

"And it is a track which should really suit this year’s Ferrari, being more about the rear end of the car than the front, unlike China. And the Ferrari performs better in a hotter ambient temperature; both factors that favour the Ferrari over the Mercedes. The team will be aiming to take their first pole of the season and target a 1-2 finish there."

https://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2017/04/ ... ter-china/

I think Ferrari will be disappointed not to get Pole here - more so than any track we've been to so far.

[giantfan10]

Weather isn't the only factor.So high temp=Ferrari's race ,low temp=Mercedes' race is naive.
As I mentioned before, there is braking,power, rear-end circuit.Why it should sway towards Ferrari?
Couple of points:

-Higher temperature than Australia?
It isn't THAT hot. It isn't hotter than Australia was, two weeks ago.
Ever since Bahrain switched to night race (2014 onwards), lowest temperature recorded on race day was 26 Celsius and the highest was 31 Celsius.31 Celsius was the lowest temperature in Australia.
-Even in Australia, Hamilton and Bottas had absolutely no problem with the softs.
Rewatching the race, you can see that in the first stint (SS) Bottas had not the pace to slip away from Kimi.When Softs came in, he increased the gap easily.
So even with high temperatures, the harder compound is going to work in the hands of Mercedes drivers.In what extend, no one knows.

Bottas and kimi? who cares about the 2 of them?? in higher temperatures bottas pulled away from Kimi while vettel was pulling away from hamilton.....whats your point really?
So the harder compound is going to work for mercedes drivers.. what are you trying to say? didnt a ferrari win the Australian grand prix on the same harder tires? Didn't Vettel extend the gap at the front on those harder tires in the final stint of the race? Why didnt hamilton catch him if he was using the harder compound which only works for Mercedes( i'm assuming thats the point you're trying to make)
Secondly i never said anything will sway towards Ferrari, Hamilton said that.
What i did do was point out what we know so far based on the last 2 races minus any fanboyism for any team.

[Bill_Kar]

Bottas and kimi? who cares about the 2 of them?? in higher temperatures bottas pulled away from Kimi while vettel was pulling away from hamilton.....whats your point really?
So the harder compound is going to work for mercedes drivers.. what are you trying to say? didnt a ferrari win the Australian grand prix on the same harder tires? Didn't Vettel extend the gap at the front on those harder tires in the final stint of the race? Why didnt hamilton catch him if he was using the harder compound which only works for Mercedes( i'm assuming thats the point you're trying to make)
Secondly i never said anything will sway towards Ferrari, Hamilton said that.
What i did do was point out what we know so far based on the last 2 races minus any fanboyism for any team.

I urge you to quit the fanboyism thing, it's really not nice.

Bottas and Kimi laptimes should be more representative.Of course, I recognise that you can't be 100% sure because of immeasurable amount of factors that moment, but we just try to get as close as we can.If you believe that's totally bollocks, I respect that.
Hamilton was far behind (IIRC 4secs) and there was really nothing he could do.If he pushed, he would just take some life out of the engine without any result.So, Ham-Vet after first pit stop is utterly useless data.Both conservative, cruising to the chequered flag.

What is more, I'm not saying the harder compound works ONLY for Mercedes.Watching China, Vettel was in the turbulent air of some car for 25 laps or something.Still he had an amazing pace while he was catching and -eventually- got rid of Verstappen.I might just say that Mercs are a little bit better on the harder compound.

That is my personal opinion, just of watching the laptimes and the races twice.I may just miss something, if that's the case, I'll be happy for you or someone else to point it out.

Yes, Hamilton indeed say that.Maybe he was trying to muddy the waters.Or just some excuses ex-ante.
You can't really rely on that.It's all PR and media.
I still think the case is that high temperature is going to aid Ferrari,but there are counterforces. My bet is, if Hamilton's ahead after first pit stop, he will win.

[ferkan]

Weather isn't the only factor.So high temp=Ferrari's race ,low temp=Mercedes' race is naive.
As I mentioned before, there is braking,power, rear-end circuit.Why it should sway towards Ferrari?
Couple of points:

-Higher temperature than Australia?
It isn't THAT hot. It isn't hotter than Australia was, two weeks ago.
Ever since Bahrain switched to night race (2014 onwards), lowest temperature recorded on race day was 26 Celsius and the highest was 31 Celsius.31 Celsius was the lowest temperature in Australia.
-Even in Australia, Hamilton and Bottas had absolutely no problem with the softs.
Rewatching the race, you can see that in the first stint (SS) Bottas had not the pace to slip away from Kimi.When Softs came in, he increased the gap easily.
So even with high temperatures, the harder compound is going to work in the hands of Mercedes drivers.In what extend, no one knows.

They might not have problems on softs in Aus, but they were slower then Ferrari was on softs. Last year RB was MUCH better then Ferrari on harder compound, even with weaker engine. Since last year they were better, it must be case this year as well..not.

[giantfan10]

Bottas and kimi? who cares about the 2 of them?? in higher temperatures bottas pulled away from Kimi while vettel was pulling away from hamilton.....whats your point really?
So the harder compound is going to work for mercedes drivers.. what are you trying to say? didnt a ferrari win the Australian grand prix on the same harder tires? Didn't Vettel extend the gap at the front on those harder tires in the final stint of the race? Why didnt hamilton catch him if he was using the harder compound which only works for Mercedes( i'm assuming thats the point you're trying to make)
Secondly i never said anything will sway towards Ferrari, Hamilton said that.
What i did do was point out what we know so far based on the last 2 races minus any fanboyism for any team.

I urge you to quit the fanboyism thing, it's really not nice.

Bottas and Kimi laptimes should be more representative.Of course, I recognise that you can't be 100% sure because of immeasurable amount of factors that moment, but we just try to get as close as we can.If you believe that's totally bollocks, I respect that.
Hamilton was far behind (IIRC 4secs) and there was really nothing he could do.If he pushed, he would just take some life out of the engine without any result.So, Ham-Vet after first pit stop is utterly useless data.Both conservative, cruising to the chequered flag.

What is more, I'm not saying the harder compound works ONLY for Mercedes.Watching China, Vettel was in the turbulent air of some car for 25 laps or something.Still he had an amazing pace while he was catching and -eventually- got rid of Verstappen.I might just say that Mercs are a little bit better on the harder compound.

That is my personal opinion, just of watching the laptimes and the races twice.I may just miss something, if that's the case, I'll be happy for you or someone else to point it out.

Yes, Hamilton indeed say that.Maybe he was trying to muddy the waters.Or just some excuses ex-ante.
You can't really rely on that.It's all PR and media.
I still think the case is that high temperature is going to aid Ferrari,but there are counterforces. My bet is, if Hamilton's ahead after first pit stop, he will win.

And i'm saying that at this point hamilton being ahead after the first pit stops may not be a given that he will win.
In cooler temperatures in China Mercedes did not have any pace advantage...Hamilton in response to the question,"who had the quicker car in China? His response was this:(take note they were both on the harder tire )

LH: Yeah, the only summary we can come up with is that. It is, as I said, very, very close and there were times when Sebastian put laps in and it was hard to even match the time. The last ten or 12 laps he was doing a 35.6 and I was doing a 35.8 and it was very hard to get to where he was. Then there was other times in the race when I was quicker.

In warmer temps in Australia Vettel could follow Hamilton and control the gap from behind.... none of the previous facts give me the impression that Mercedes has any advantage at all at this point in the season.
this will be a development race and we all know Ferraris previous struggles with in season development ,who know if their issues are fixed in that department.
As far as Mercedes i have no clue if they can outdevelop anybody... hear me out on this one...who has Mercedes had to outdevelop in the last 3 years? And no, cruising around at the front of the field with an ICU/ERS miles better than any other car in the field is not an indication that you can outdevelop anyone.
If Mercedes had encountered the same issues they did in the Australia GP lets say in 2016 they would have won by 15 seconds instead of the usual 25.
we shall revisit this next sunday evening : ) enough for now

[godlameroso]

Lap record: 1:31,447 (Pedro de la Rosa, 2005)
Fastest lap: 1:29,493 (Lewis Hamilton, Q3, 2016)

Pole time 2016: 1:29,493 (Lewis Hamilton)
Fastest lap in race 2016: 1:34,482 (Nico Rosberg)
Fastest speed trap in race 2016: 340.5 km/h (Lewis Hamilton)

Prediction:

Pole time 2017: 1:24,9 (Lewis Hamilton)
Fastest lap in race 2017: 1:29,2 (Sebastian Vettel)
Fastest speed trap in race 2017: 336 km/h (Lewis Hamilton)

That's way too fast IMO, I think pole will be 1:28 something, maybe highe 27, fastest race lap 1:31-1:32. The pattern of the cars being 4 - 5 seconds faster in qualifying than the race still holds.

Also Quali
1.)Bot
2.)Ham
3.)Rai
4.)Vet
5.)Ver

Race
1.)Bot
2.)Rai
3.)Ver
4.)Ric
5.)Mas

[Bill_Kar]

Race
1.)Bot
2.)Rai
3.)Ver
4.)Ric
5.)Mas

Is that a collision between Hamilton and Vettel?

[ENGINE TUNER]

Weather isn't the only factor.So high temp=Ferrari's race ,low temp=Mercedes' race is naive.
As I mentioned before, there is braking,power, rear-end circuit.Why it should sway towards Ferrari?
Couple of points:

-Higher temperature than Australia?
It isn't THAT hot. It isn't hotter than Australia was, two weeks ago.
Ever since Bahrain switched to night race (2014 onwards), lowest temperature recorded on race day was 26 Celsius and the highest was 31 Celsius.31 Celsius was the lowest temperature in Australia.
-Even in Australia, Hamilton and Bottas had absolutely no problem with the softs.
Rewatching the race, you can see that in the first stint (SS) Bottas had not the pace to slip away from Kimi.When Softs came in, he increased the gap easily.
So even with high temperatures, the harder compound is going to work in the hands of Mercedes drivers.In what extend, no one knows.

Bottas and kimi? who cares about the 2 of them?? in higher temperatures bottas pulled away from Kimi while vettel was pulling away from hamilton.....whats your point really?
So the harder compound is going to work for mercedes drivers.. what are you trying to say? didnt a ferrari win the Australian grand prix on the same harder tires? Didn't Vettel extend the gap at the front on those harder tires in the final stint of the race? Why didnt hamilton catch him if he was using the harder compound which only works for Mercedes( i'm assuming thats the point you're trying to make)
Secondly i never said anything will sway towards Ferrari, Hamilton said that.
What i did do was point out what we know so far based on the last 2 races minus any fanboyism for any team.

What you are clearly failing to understand was that HAM was not trying to catch VET, he had already decided to save his tires in case there was another safety car rather than pushing hard to catch up and then have no tires left under him with which to attempt a pass.

[TAG]

I think Ferrari will be disappointed not to get Pole here - more so than any track we've been to so far.

I'm going to go out on what I believe is a pretty stout limb and say that Ferrari will not get a pole this year unless it's penalty aided or where Hamilton is unable to compete in Q3 due to mechanical issues.

[godlameroso]

They'll get pole in Spain, not in the fly aways.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Weather isn't the only factor.So high temp=Ferrari's race ,low temp=Mercedes' race is naive.
As I mentioned before, there is braking,power, rear-end circuit.Why it should sway towards Ferrari?
Couple of points:

-Higher temperature than Australia?
It isn't THAT hot. It isn't hotter than Australia was, two weeks ago.
Ever since Bahrain switched to night race (2014 onwards), lowest temperature recorded on race day was 26 Celsius and the highest was 31 Celsius.31 Celsius was the lowest temperature in Australia.
-Even in Australia, Hamilton and Bottas had absolutely no problem with the softs.
Rewatching the race, you can see that in the first stint (SS) Bottas had not the pace to slip away from Kimi.When Softs came in, he increased the gap easily.
So even with high temperatures, the harder compound is going to work in the hands of Mercedes drivers.In what extend, no one knows.

Bottas and kimi? who cares about the 2 of them?? in higher temperatures bottas pulled away from Kimi while vettel was pulling away from hamilton.....whats your point really?
So the harder compound is going to work for mercedes drivers.. what are you trying to say? didnt a ferrari win the Australian grand prix on the same harder tires? Didn't Vettel extend the gap at the front on those harder tires in the final stint of the race? Why didnt hamilton catch him if he was using the harder compound which only works for Mercedes( i'm assuming thats the point you're trying to make)
Secondly i never said anything will sway towards Ferrari, Hamilton said that.
What i did do was point out what we know so far based on the last 2 races minus any fanboyism for any team.

The argument about hot races favoring Ferrari and cold races favoring Mercedes, reminds me the situation of post Malaysia 2015. Everyone knows what happened after that. Even in 2015 Malaysia, Mercedes could have won if not for apprehensive strategy mistake, somewhat the same that happened this year at Australia. If not for Verstappen not pitting as expected by Merc, we wouldn't be discussing hot and cold here.

Australia was the first race and most likely, Mercedes did not have a good hold of setting up the car as it was evident from Winter testing, but as the season progresses I fully expect them to get on top of the set up issues and there won't be hot and cold debates. They are a team that have demonstrated an ability that was never seen before by a team (2014 onwards) to conquer their issues after it's first occurence.

As far Ferrari, they still have to demonstrate that they can compete for a full season and fight tooth and nail. They have a history of their upgrades not working AND/OR taking them backwards. What happens if Mercedes doesn't fall back in Bahrain's hotter temperatures?

[f1316]

It's not purely a temperature issue; the other part of the argument for Ferrari being strong in Bahrain is that it's rear limited, and so far they seem to have a more stable rear (Martin Brundle made this observation, for example).

I do agree with Lewis though, in that I think Mercedes still have a slight PU advantage (particularly in quali mode) and this will be important in Bahrain.

I think it will be finely balanced but nevertheless expect Ferrari to take pole and the win, but in a race long battle.

[ChrisDanger]

Schumacher commentates over his 2006 pole lap.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

It's not purely a temperature issue; the other part of the argument for Ferrari being strong in Bahrain is that it's rear limited, and so far they seem to have a more stable rear (Martin Brundle made this observation, for example).

It is way too early to establish which car is suited to front limited circuits and which car is suited to rear limited circuits.

I would argue that, the philosophy that Mercedes has chased with longer wheel base, is to get better downforce and that itself is a reason enough to believe that, Mercedes is targeting circuits that require more downforce and when a car has a great deal of consistent downforce (bonus if the drag to downforce co-efficient is less), it tends to do well on rear limited circuits. We don't have too many fast sweeping downhill/uphill right handers on the calendar and no team designs the cars for front limited circuits. So, there is no reason to believe that the W08 is going to be weaker on rear limited circuits. If anything, it is most likely taking longer than they wanted to understand the setting up of car. I am not saying that, once they get hold of set up issues W08 is going to be dominant, but it would quell these warm weather and rear limited ghosts.

[F1NAC]

Races would be even better if Ferrari manages to fix their starting procedures.