2017 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, 12-14 May

[godlameroso]

I have a feeling Raikkonen takes this one, Hamilton second and Bottas 3rd, Vettel 4th. Vettel isn't great in Barcelona, Webber would give him a hard time here.

As far as weather, you know the old limrick has some truth to it, and the rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain. Temperatures will be in the upper 20's low 30's C of course. Track temperature will be the highest we've seen all year mid 40's.

Soft tire won't be as durable as it was in testing, and I expect pole to be a high to mid 18. The medium tire will actually be used for once, the hard tire may be used in FP1 to do testing.

2 stop is likely, a 1 stop using soft and hard is possible but unlikely as it will be too slow of a strategy.

S S M will likely be the default strategy.

I wish Pirelli had made the hard and medium tires with equal ultimate performance but just difficult to get the hard to work, as in you really have to thrash it. Likely what will end up happening is that the hard tire will only work on the left side and never get to temperature on the right.

[godlameroso]

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[Wass85]

The question is will we see the fastest ever lap around the circuit in Q3?

[Santozini]

https://twitter.com/Circuitcat_eng/stat ... 8803565568

What changes? What surprises?

[f1316]

I reckon - based on very little but the small inferences we've been able to make so far this year - that if they were to turn up with the same cars as Russia, Ferrari would just shade it.

However, I get the impression Mercedes have some relatively low-hanging fruit in terms of weight reduction (ballast) and balance issues (quite possibly linked to the lack of ballast due to being overweight).

Conversely, I think Ferrari have been fairly happy with all aspects of the car so far this year, and yet still very close to Mercedes' pace; I therefore think theirs is the bigger challenge in terms of improving at Barcelona - I still believe that their main deficit to Mercedes is in the PU (more so in quali but also a bit in the race) and so catching up in this area - or having enough chassis advantage to compensate - is arguably tougher.

So I think Mercedes are still favourites. However we have no idea what anyone's bringing; who knows, maybe the preseason rumours are true and Ferrari really will bring a long wheelbase car! I doubt it but fascinating to find out.

Hopefully the race itself will be just as exciting but I expect it will be more like the typical pre-2011 Spanish gps (which FYI, I still personally enjoyed more than the tiptoeing cluster fudge of 2013, for example).

[GPR-A duplicate2]

So I think Mercedes are still favourites. However we have no idea what anyone's bringing; who knows, maybe the preseason rumours are true and Ferrari really will bring a long wheelbase car! I doubt it but fascinating to find out.

I think it would be suicidal to go the Long wheelbase way for Ferrari. The very reason (as much as I have read and understood) why Mercedes wanted to go the Long wheelbase for W08 is, that architecture offers more downforce. They seems to have been struggling, because after successfully delivering beasts for 3 years, they changed their philosophy and somewhere, some correlation is missing between the older spec of wheel base and newer one. The way their rear is dancing, coming out of faster corner, I feel they haven't managed to get what they wanted from longer wheel base.

Whereas Ferrari, seems to be having great handle on their downforce levels and the mechanical grip. So far, Ferrari seems be the better balanced car than W08. Mercedes is still depending upon PU power to propel them and recover whatever time they are losing with the relative bad balance. Changing to Longer wheelbase means, changing the Wind Tunnel and CFD models and go through the same exercise that Mercedes has gone through in terms of changing the correlation between two different models and exactly extrapolate the overall car's performance metrics from older to newer model. If they miss a few things, the way Mercedes seems to have missed, they go backwards as they do not have the same PU power advantage, while Mercedes might move forward with bringing solutions to their problems. There might build up a gulf between the two. So far, they have collected a lot of real time data with the current car and if they have to take that data and put it on the Longer wheelbase design, then obviously they have to do a lot of extrapolation and that to me, could be a challenge.

May be because Ferrari were not confident until last year that they can either match or surpass the Mercedes with the regulation changes, they most likely have taken two different approaches of short and long wheelbases. Now that they are on the right track, it should be wise to move in the right direction, than to go in a direction of which they have no idea, except for virtual numbers from their simulations. I wouldn't be surprised if we never see the longer wheel base on Ferrari.

[f1316]

So I think Mercedes are still favourites. However we have no idea what anyone's bringing; who knows, maybe the preseason rumours are true and Ferrari really will bring a long wheelbase car! I doubt it but fascinating to find out.

I think it would be suicidal to go the Long wheelbase way for Ferrari. The very reason (as much as I have ready and understood) why Mercedes wanted to go the Long wheelbase for W08 is, that architecture offers more downforce. They seems to have been struggling, because after successfully delivering beasts for 3 years, they changed their philosophy and somewhere, some correlation is missing between the older spec of wheel base and newer one. The way their rear is dancing, coming out of faster corner, I feel they haven't managed to get what they wanted from longer wheel base.

Whereas Ferrari, seems to be having great handle on their downforce levels and the mechanical grip. So far, Ferrari seems be the better balanced car than W08. Mercedes is still depending upon PU power to propel them and recover whatever time they are losing with the relative bad balance. Changing to Longer wheelbase means, changing the Wind Tunnel and CFD models and go through the same exercise that Mercedes has gone through in terms of changing the correlation between two different models and exactly extrapolate the overall car's performance metrics from older to newer model. If they miss a few things, the way Mercedes seems to have missed, they go backwards as they do not have the same PU power advantage, while Mercedes might move forward with bringing solutions to their problems. There might build up a gulf between the two.

May be because Ferrari were not confident until last year that they can either match or surpass the Mercedes with the regulation changes, they most likely have taken two different approaches of short and long wheelbases. Now that they are on the right track, it should be wise to move in the right direction, than to go in a direction of which they have no idea, except for virtual numbers from their simulations.

No, I agree - I don't see it happening at all.

I do wonder if there's more development potential in it for Mercedes though: in that there are short term issues which, once overcome, will yield rewards.

I wonder if the long wheelbase is the prime contributor to the weight issues - longer car = more bodywork, hence more weight. If so, they're not able to use ballast to balance the car, hence rear snaking around.

Anyway, guess we'll see

[godlameroso]

The question is will we see the fastest ever lap around the circuit in Q3?

Won't be as fast as winter testing since no SS, so I'm guessing low 19's for pole.

[godlameroso]

I think the cars performance is so close that the balance of power shifts with small variables. The driver, the nature of the circuit, the weather, team strategy, car setup, all can swing the tide back and forth. Too close to call in other words.

It's all about making fewer mistakes than your rivals.

[Just_a_fan]

The very reason (as much as I have read and understood) why Mercedes wanted to go the Long wheelbase for W08 is, that architecture offers more downforce. They seems to have been struggling, because after successfully delivering beasts for 3 years, they changed their philosophy and somewhere, some correlation is missing between the older spec of wheel base and newer one.

They were forced to run a long wheelbase because they couldn't get a steep rake design to work. Their aero philosophy in previous years doesn't translate well to a high rake design. Thus to gain the downforce increase required they had to increase the length. This was confirmed in an interview with a team member earlier in the year.

[ClarkBT11]

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What changes? What surprises?

Casey​ mentioned in a interview on ch4 making the GP week more than just the race. He wants to get more involved with the country for the whole week trying to showcase the sport. Maybe that's what he's​ got planned, a special event in Barcelona or something along those lines.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

The very reason (as much as I have read and understood) why Mercedes wanted to go the Long wheelbase for W08 is, that architecture offers more downforce. They seems to have been struggling, because after successfully delivering beasts for 3 years, they changed their philosophy and somewhere, some correlation is missing between the older spec of wheel base and newer one.

They were forced to run a long wheelbase because they couldn't get a steep rake design to work. Their aero philosophy in previous years doesn't translate well to a high rake design. Thus to gain the downforce increase required they had to increase the length. This was confirmed in an interview with a team member earlier in the year.

Well, what I read in that regard was that, they were unable to put as much rake on the current car, that is longer wheel base. When they tried on this car, they lost as much as over a second and hence, had to keep the rake down. Even lower than the predecessors. Can you please point me out to the source you read?

[ME4ME]

One thing we saw in winter testing was that Ferrari seemed better on a variety of tyre compounds, whereas Mercedes seemed to need soft tyres for the balance to be right. If there is any truth in it, and it very well may not, Ferrari could have a slight advantage given the available compounds for the race.

Driver wise, I think Vettel and Raikkonen will be very evenly matched in qualifying, as has been the case on multiple occasions in 2016/17, and indeed in Russia. There might be a chance of Kimi taking his first pole in ages. But then again, Hamilton usually bounches back strongly after a poor weekend, so he should be expected to be on form as well.

Given the 1:13 and 1:16 odds for Raikkonen to be on pole and win the race, I placed a small sum of money on him taking it home.

[SectorOne]

I think the cars performance is so close that the balance of power shifts with small variables. The driver, the nature of the circuit, the weather, team strategy, car setup, all can swing the tide back and forth. Too close to call in other words.

I agree with this. And it´s god damn beautiful to see..
You have a bad day? well then you get 4th at best.
No more getting safe second places even though you under-performed all weekend.

I have no clue who´s gonna be quick, who will win between Ferrari and Mercedes but i absolutely love this season so far.
We got fast cars, hard overtakes and nobody has any idea who will stick it on pole come Saturday.

[Just_a_fan]

Well, what I read in that regard was that, they were unable to put as much rake on the current car, that is longer wheel base. When they tried on this car, they lost as much as over a second and hence, had to keep the rake down. Even lower than the predecessors. Can you please point me out to the source you read?

From http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/form ... isch%29%29
This is the Google translation which is a bit rough to read. They tried high angle but lost too much performance so they went long wheelbase instead.

Mercedes has tried it in the early phase of the concept, but has fallen on the nose during the first wind tunnel tests and CFD simulations. "We immediately lost up to 60 points downforce," says an engineer. This made it clear: the risk of pursuing this path is too great. So a substitute solution had to come. And that is the long wheelbase.
The Mercedes grew between the wheels from 3,500 to 3,760 millimeters. In comparison, the Red Bull is shorter by 20 centimeters at 3,557 millimeters. Because at the Mercedes the side boxes relative to the sternVideo BMW M4 Mercedes-AMG C 63 S early in , this creates a lot of free space on the undersurface as far as the diffuser. That brings downforce. And extra space to capture and reorientate the entanglement of the front wing and front wheels.
That is why the baffles on the silver arrow are so complex. An engineer tells us: "The risk with the long wheelbase was lower for us than with the big angle of attack. We will have to accept a few disadvantages on narrow routes, but have a much better aerodynamic platform. "