2017 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, 12-14 May

[dans79]

It might have changed, but I doubt it.

It hasn't, but there’s some ambiguity around the rule and room for stewards to interpret it differently from race to race.

The real travesty with this rule, is that the penalty for violating it is a joke in some cases. For example If Vettel Had broken Hamilton's suspension, Lewis gets a DNF, and Vettel gets a small time penalty.

[Sevach]

Well Hamilton "elbowed out" Rosberg in similar style about 200 times the last couple of years so i don't think he can complain (and he didn't) too much.

I think those incidents were the reason this rule was clarified in the first place.
Also there were slightly different variables.
FIArrari is back in force this year, it's so obvious race after race.

Which clarification you are talking about? I don't remember any recent changes regarding on corner behaviour...

[Sevach]

BTW: and just to comment on the race. Just like Mercedes dropped the ball in Australia, IMO Ferrari dropped the ball here in Spain. It was theirs to lose, and they did and by more than just circumstance.

IMO, they played right into Mercedes hands on two accounts. First account was the first pit stop: When it seemed as if Mercedes would be pitting Hamilton as evident by the radio message (Lewis, speed up, close the gap) it all pointed to an early pit stop by Mercedes. At that point, as a Hamilton fan, I was screaming at the TV yelling NO, as it was clear he would end up in traffic, which would then likely see a repeat of what we had in Australia. Ferrari jumped at it and pitted Vettel instead. IMO, that was a high risk maneuver, that however didn't have a big impact on the race because Vettel (to my surprise) was able to pass Ricciardo.

Second account was the VSC period. When that VSC happened, I was baffled to not see Ferrari pit Vettel. At that point, Vettel was leading by ~8 seconds. Imagine the following:

VSC out - Vettel/Ferrari pit. Time to pit: 22-8 seconds = 16 seconds (estimated). Result: Vettel 8 seconds behind Hamilton, Vettel on new mediums, Hamilton on used mediums. Given that both cars had quite a similar pace, I'd estimate that Vettel would be slightly quicker, closing that gap to Hamilton. Mercedes would be faced with two possibilities: Either pit again under the VSC which would put them 8 seconds behind Vettel again, but on softs or attempt the one stop strategy and run those worn mediums to the end. Either way, Ferrari would have been at a disadvantage of losing track position by pitting first due to the tire constraint of having to run that medium tire. My bet is that Mercedes would have attempted the 1-stop, staying out on mediums and trying to ride the track position advantage. It then would have come down to a simple equation: is the Ferrari quicker on the slightly fresher mediums? Faster enough to close the gap? Is DRS effective enough to attempt a pass?

In the end, they probably felt that the 8 seconds gap would just be enough to hold on to track position if Mercedes pitted under the VSC and either pit as well under VSC or a lap later. Turned out to be true - just. But I still think the brilliance of how this turned out was that pit stop of Mercedes just as the VSC was ending, leaving Ferrari vulnerable to the max. It was bold and cunning.

I think Ferrari got complacent with Mercedes not pitting under the VSC immediately, they believed Mercedes was unwilling to go 30 laps on softs, Vettel was still stretching the lead when the VSC came in so they felt comfortable with that.

In hindsight pitting made a lot more sense, it was the safe bet.

[tranquility2k4]

the VSC ended as HAM was entering the pits and so he actually had a very negligible period of time where he'd gain any kind of advantage.
...
proper analysis

actually a wrong analysis
VSC ended directly on the end of the 36th lap for Lewis when he already entered on the pitlane.
Plots here
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/05/14/2 ... ap-charts/
show that he lost on the entrance almost nothing to Vettel up to that moment. When on the next lap Vettel lose (relatively to other) more than 5 seconds just on the entrance before the finish line.
The gap Ham to Vet after the Ham pit is 24,4 s, the gap about a lap later just before the Vet pit is about 23s.
If VSC ended just after the Ham pit, he would gain some additional seconds and took the firm lead after the Vet pit.

Yes but did you actually read the analysis on espnf1. It's factual and it states he lost 2 sec due to VSC and 6 sec due to a Hams speed, which was insane at that point in the lap. Read all the points in bold in my previous post.

[f1316]

I think it's fair to assume that the longer wheelbase Mercedes is always likely to be a more stable aerodynamic platform in long corners -I.e. Smoother - but the shorter, nimbler (possibly still lighter?) Ferrari will be a livelier car that is able to be thrown around a bit more. imo the style Lewis has to use with that car is a smooth one - it's too long to respond well to lively inputs - and vice verse with Seb in the Ferrari.

Nevertheless, I have maintained all year and still maintain that the Mercedes is the slightly faster car - not just in quali but in all conditions. The only time I've seen demonstrable a proof of the Mercedes not managing its tyres as well is in Australia (and Bottas with the wrong pressures in Bahrain) - otherwise I think it looks pretty equal.

In Spain Ferrari were quicker on fast corners and slower in slow ones; again - and I think you can see it - I think Mercedes was running more wing. They can afford more drag because they still have more power and perhaps even more so this weekend, when I think it's possible they could run higher power for longer (at least with Lewis).

So I think the Ferrari has a better downforce/drag ratio and that's allowing them to almost bridge the gap to Mercedes, despite still losing out a bit on power.

However, I also think there are two things suggesting they'll be stronger in Monaco:

i) if they were running less wing, they have more to add when they go to max df in Monaco

ii) I still can't see that limo turning well in the tight confines of the principality; they may have been good in s3 in Barcelona but I think it owes much to the wing level. Plus, and more importantly, S3 in Barcelona ain't Monaco - i just can't see the Mercedes working well at the hairpin or even in Anthony Nogues. I actually think the - shorter still - Red Bull will close in and put pressure on the Mercedes, with Ferrari out in front (at least with Seb; can imagine Kimi "struggling with the front end" as ever).

So I think the Mercedes is still the faster package but it's been designed to work at the majority of circuits; Monaco's an outlier.

The video I posted countered all of the perceptions you have about the two cars. Watch it and tell me what you think.

https://streamable.com/nvsmo

It's a very interesting video - particularly when looking at the different lines which is so great to see - so thanks for posting.

But I don't think it disproves my points at all - in fact, I think the very start, where Vettel pulls out a gap on the straight, completely proves my point: no way the Ferrari is that much faster on the straight without less drag (I.e. Less wing).

And for that reason I think his conclusion about S3 - where he says Mercedes will do well on any track with slow corners - is flawed, because we've already established that they're running more drag/wing and that will help them in those corners.

Maybe they're also inherently good in terms of mechanical grip, so we'll see, but I still maintain that Monaco is way more cramped and twisty than S3 in Barcelona, so far more difficult for such a long car.

We'll see, I guess, but the video hasn't changed my opinion.

[Yurasyk]

the VSC ended as HAM was entering the pits and so he actually had a very negligible period of time where he'd gain any kind of advantage.
...
proper analysis

actually a wrong analysis
VSC ended directly on the end of the 36th lap for Lewis when he already entered on the pitlane.
Plots here
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/05/14/2 ... ap-charts/
show that he lost on the entrance almost nothing to Vettel up to that moment. When on the next lap Vettel lose (relatively to other) more than 5 seconds just on the entrance before the finish line.
The gap Ham to Vet after the Ham pit is 24,4 s, the gap about a lap later just before the Vet pit is about 23s.
If VSC ended just after the Ham pit, he would gain some additional seconds and took the firm lead after the Vet pit.

Yes but did you actually read the analysis on espnf1. It's factual and it states he lost 2 sec due to VSC and 6 sec due to a Hams speed, which was insane at that point in the lap. Read all the points in bold in my previous post.

Yes I read. And I can say, they are wrong.

he delivered with truly awesome times in the middle sector (30.792s) and final sector (28.367)

Why they did not say directly that his out lap was 1.41.405 an the soft when Vet out lap was 1.43.275 on the medium.
1.9s is almost a normal difference between compounds + some loss on the first corner incident with Lewis. He simply could not win 6 seconds in this way. The actual gain was (as I said) 24.4-22.9=1.5s (between Ham out and Vet in) and about 2.0-2.5s over the whole Ham's out lap.
https://puu.sh/vS4qn.png
https://puu.sh/vS4z5.png
The rest 6 seconds were lose on the pit entrance under VSC.

[pipoloko]

Just 3/10ths off Hamilton's time. Impressive stuff. I wonder if Hamilton and Vettel could have gone quicker if needed, however.

well they were "fighting" for P1 or almost and compared with 2016 BL they were fast so was Alonso
tyres were used in both cases
it looks promising specially if you have into account Q2 AND Q3!!!

The only reason Alonso's laptime was so close to the front runners is because he pitted with 13 laps to go and Hamilton and Vettel pitstops were 20 laps before. Hamilton set the fastest lap on 28 lap old softs, I reckon Hamilton or Vettel would of been at least 1.5 seconds quicker with the same tyre Alonso used for his fastest lap time.

Alonso was running on used tyres at least 4/7 laps used so we can say alonso's and hamilto's were worn almost the same or say max .3/.4 diffrence

[ThumbsUp]

Fun fact: Hamilton took the lead in lap 44

[ClarkBT11]

well they were "fighting" for P1 or almost and compared with 2016 BL they were fast so was Alonso
tyres were used in both cases
it looks promising specially if you have into account Q2 AND Q3!!!

The only reason Alonso's laptime was so close to the front runners is because he pitted with 13 laps to go and Hamilton and Vettel pitstops were 20 laps before. Hamilton set the fastest lap on 28 lap old softs, I reckon Hamilton or Vettel would of been at least 1.5 seconds quicker with the same tyre Alonso used for his fastest lap time.

Alonso was running on used tyres at least 4/7 laps used so we can say alonso's and hamilto's were worn almost the same or say max .3/.4 diffrence

We're still talking 8/10 laps difference in tyre life .4 is not representable(maybe .4 per sector). There's nothing promising about it, the front cars was on that pace for the whole last stint. 30 laps to McLaren's five laps that were close to their pace, there isn't anything to debate.

[img[/img]

[henra]

Yes but did you actually read the analysis on espnf1. It's factual and it states he lost 2 sec due to VSC and 6 sec due to a Hams speed, which was insane at that point in the lap. Read all the points in bold in my previous post.

Yeah, right, he went 6s quicker in that lap. And the rest of the race he was sandbagging....

[giantfan10]

Yes but did you actually read the analysis on espnf1. It's factual and it states he lost 2 sec due to VSC and 6 sec due to a Hams speed, which was insane at that point in the lap. Read all the points in bold in my previous post.

Yeah, right, he went 6s quicker in that lap. And the rest of the race he was sandbagging....

Some will come up with ridiculous theories to convince everyone else that Mercedes is still dominant.They are not and can be beaten on any track by Ferrari and vice versa. seems as if VSC and safety cars are now the deciding factor in races : ) whichever team handles it best wins the race

[siskue2005]

Maybe they're also inherently good in terms of mechanical grip, so we'll see, but I still maintain that Monaco is way more cramped and twisty than S3 in Barcelona, so far more difficult for such a long car.

We'll see, I guess, but the video hasn't changed my opinion.

Monaco Set up: the misconception of wheelbase
https://scarbsf1.wordpress.com/2010/05/ ... wheelbase/

[Phil]

Some will come up with ridiculous theories to convince everyone else that Mercedes is still dominant.They are not and can be beaten on any track by Ferrari and vice versa. seems as if VSC and safety cars are now the deciding factor in races : ) whichever team handles it best wins the race

Clearly they are not. Call me ignorant, naive or other, but I still think the reasons for them being so close is more Mercedes becoming weaker than Ferrari stronger (relatively speaking). Some of that is probably down to the changed suspension and the longer wheelbase (leading to an excess of weight) that has set them up in less favorable position. They've also been struggling to keep the softer compounds in the right temperature window which could be directly related to these factors. The Ferrari, as brilliant as it is, just works and is according to reports simpler to set-up which makes it very effective. Despite all this, Mercedes has still retained a slight lead in qualifying trim and as the races have progressed so far, have seemed to be learning steadily and at this race, seemed very calm and collected, even when Ferrari was leading the race.

Perhaps the fact that Kimi and Verstappen were taken out during the race (which lead to a big gap down to the next best team) has given them a lot of room to gamble with little risk, but this race it wasn't the Mercedes of Melbourne that panicked into stopping early, but confident to stay out longer and attempt a 30 lap last stint on the soft tire. This had a lot to do with their pace, the fact that Hamilton could stay reasonably close to Vettel on equal tires that set them up to go medium on that 2nd stint and do it in reverse.

So yes, they are not dominant now, but I think Mercedes is on the right track in understanding their car better, they seem to know what they are doing and what direction they must take to maximize their potential further. Monaco might be a tricky race - but looking beyond Monte Carlo, I'm fully confident in their ability to keep up the development and make that car stronger. The big question mark IMO is still Ferrari. Right now, it's so close, but will they stay that close? We will see.

[santos]

"I still think the reasons for them being so close is more Mercedes becoming weaker than Ferrari stronger" - i think if that was true, Red Bull would be also closer to Mercedes and Ferrari.

[Phil]

...but RedBull maybe suffered the most by the suspension ban?