ChrisDanger wrote: ↑09 Jul 2017, 07:36
Well, Accuweather is saying thunderstorms from 13h00 and from 16h00 but intermittent clouds (no rain) between 14h00 and 16h00. Hopefully there's a bit of error on that, as the dry window is quite narrow. But it at least looks like it might be a damp start.
1. Friday it was a 80% chance of rain in FP2 and it didn`t ... now its a 58% therefore less chance than Friday ...
2. Nevertheless, had it will rain and the race will start on a dry tarmac SS tyre should have an advantage being a tyre which works in the lower range of temp operation window ... and worth to mention that after the rain track will be cleaned of rubber and Merc has the upper hand on a green track as we saw in all FP1`s over the year ...
3. In Q3 almost every driver had a moment on turn 1, but Lewis had understeer in turn 4 and also in turn 6 which backs up Phil`s theory they setup his car for the SS tyre ... you should review back to back his laps on Q2 and Q3 to see the understeery car he got in order to held his rears for more in the race, where I think he could do a one stop race with ~40 laps on SS and ~30 laps on US tyre at the end ...
4. Is it me or knowing Lewis will have a 5 grid penalty they setup his car more towards the race and Botas` car more towards the qualy and that in order to stop Vettel running into the clean air equal to a clean and easy victory?
5. Regarding the start, even though I don`t have a crystal ball, I foresee a slow Bottas getaway and Vettel diving into turn 1 unsettling the car and having a wobble moment forcing Bottas to run wide to avoid collision hence making way for Kimi passing through in the lead ... then a close battle in turn 3 between Bottas and Vettel won by the first one coz Vettel couldn`t afford to ruin his car ... so after 8-10 laps drivers on US tyre are struggling with temps in the working window and that was helping Lewis to catch up Vettel which he will prevail after an epic battle ... afterwards Bottas and Kimi are sitting ducks having worn tyres ... and that was the key for the win today

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