***To the unknown moderator who deleted my/this post - it took me approximately 15-20 minutes to write it. I see no reason why it shouldn't be in this topic. If you have an issue with it, feel free to point out the exact reasons. If this is the wrong topic for it, feel free to move it to the team-topic as team-orders can and should be discussed somewhere.
Vasconia wrote: ↑10 Jul 2017, 09:02
Bottas had a perfect weekend, and now its only 15 points behind Lewis, Mercedes can´t justify team orders right now.
A team doesn't need justification under the current set of rules. I'd also argue that a team may back which ever driver they think has the better chance, rather than how close they are in points. Bottas had a very costly DNF so far, but that DNF came from 3rd (and 3rd was the best on the table). So without that DNF he'd be 5 points behind Hamilton right now.
But then if we look at Baku where Bottas ended 2nd due to the clash between Hamilton and Vettel, we can see that Hamilton lost 13 points as a result of the headrest issue while Bottas profited by inheriting Vettels (penalty) and Hamilton (headrest) issue. So instead of 2nd, he'd have finished 4th at the very best. So 6 points less.
So after Barcelona - the gap should under normal circumstances (dictated by pace, not luck) have been:
Vettel 104
Hamilton 98 (-6)
Bottas 63[+15] = 80 (-20)
After Baku:
Vettel 153 [+6] = 159
Hamilton 139 [+13] = 152 (-7)
Bottas 111[+15-6] = 120 (-32)
One could also argue that Austria was also an easy race for Bottas because Hamilton's qualifying and race were determined by the 5 position penalty he would be serving, so his entire weekend evolved around the team trying to get the best car under the assumption of starting from the 4th row.
Yes, the gap between Bottas and Hamilton is 15 points now and points are points, no matter how or which circumstances led to them. I just wanted to highlight that there are certain factors that are outside the drivers control that influence those points and while Bottas suffered dearly in Barcelona by his PU imploding, he had a very, very fortunate race in Baku where his team-mate suffered an even bigger blow points wise but Bottas profited directly from it as a result from otherwise finishing behind his team-mate.
Having said that, I am quite impressed with Bottas so far. Yes, he has had the occasional off where he has lacked pace, but I am more inclined to put that down to the characteristic of the car, rather than in the sole responsibility of the driver. As the season progresses, I expect the Mercedes to become more predictable and therefore consistent, so it will be easier to assess the relative performance of both drivers. For now however, the gap is only so small as it is, not because of Bottas driving absolutely flawless, but because he is there to grab the points he needs to take when the situation presents itself, just like Ricciardo has been doing these last few races where his team-mate Max has clearly looked quicker (except here in Austria), but suffered costly DNFs.
The point being - I don't expect Mercedes as a team to use team-orders, but I think if Bottas is ahead of Hamilton (but not in the lead) and Hamilton looks to be clearly quicker, they will not hesitate like in Bahrain. I don't think the courtesy will extend the other way around, unless there is a big difference in pace. The only situation where I don't think Mercedes will issue team-orders, irrespective of who is leading who is if both their drivers are in position 1 and 2. Then I think and believe that Mercedes will let their drivers fight it out (unless there is a point to be made that there is danger from behind where Ferrari on the basis of a strategic gamble might be able to snatch away a position). Here too, I'd expect the team to favor Hamilton and not extend the courtesy to Bottas if the roles were reversed. That's just my gut feeling, don't take my word for it.