2017 Hungarian Grand Prix - Hungaroring, 28-30 July

[godlameroso]

There are two high speed turns, 4 & 11, everything else is medium and low speed, still despite this, I predict pole in the low 17's high 16's, I don't think they can do 15's. Whatever is the top time in FP2, subtract ~2 seconds and you have pole, add ~1.5 seconds and that's the fastest time they can do in the race. A lap around here is ~10 seconds faster than in Silverstone, so having consecutive laps in the 22's or 23's and as fast as 20's late race, this track is going to really challenge the drivers. They have to be on it for 70 laps, and any mistake will get severely punished, probably the toughest test they've had to face all year. Hungary is quite warm, the heat and mental fatigue of the constant turns and small margin for error, the drivers will be winded by the end of the race. It's really stressful to push like a madman around here for 70 laps, we will probably see some rookie mistakes all weekend long.

Vettel has to win here to keep his championship hopes alive, the good news is that there aren't long straights, and the Ferrari has excellent downforce, so this is a good track for them.

[Vasconia]

Why would a max downforce track with mid-low corners and one small straight be bad for Ferrari ? They have no excuses to be slower here.

It looks like the turning point of Mercedes out developing Ferrari has happened. I expect Mercedes to walk the race.

When did this out-developing happen? They were very close in Canada, slower in Q but comparable in the race in Baku, had practically identical pace in Austria and were behind in GB, hard to say how much with Raikkonen a leading car. You might speculate about oil or floor tricks or Merc fixing their problems but cars are still close.

Since the Spanish GP Mercedes is clearly ahead (bar the Monaco GP). In Baku Ferrari was nowhere near Hamilton pace in race or in qualy and without the trouble on the first corner and the epic race it would have been an easy 1-2 for Mercedes. In Canada they were not close again Hamilton battered them in qualy and Vettel was by quite a small margin in front of Bottas in Q3. In race the RB had a better pace overall (Verstappen 1st stint before the DNF). In Austria couldn't beat Bottas in qualy, and on race pace, the first stint Bottas was clearly faster and that was the opposite on the second stint (but we heard on Canal + that Merc pushed too much the gearbox settings and they change the gearbox of Lewis for this reason, but they thought for Bottas it will be fine but as Toto said "it was on the edge" so maybe they turn down everything on the last stint + that's why Bottas changed of gearbox at Silverstone). About Silverstone I think Ferrari were never close (long run pace and qualy pace), and it was more about damage limitation all the weekend. When someone who start in the 9th place finish between your cars (without the puncture) there is a problem.

I agree with the fact that Mercedes has been superior in Canada, Baku and Silverstone. It was expect to be like that but the worrying fact was Silverstone where the gap in the race was too big. Ferrari expected to be slighltly slower in those races(at least on qualy) but the difference in Silverstone was big, very big. Its true that without Vestappen blocking Vettel they should have finished 2-3th. But both Mercedes, and this important because I include Bottas, were faster. Hamilton was driving like between 2014-2016, with "one hand" when Rosberg was out.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Ferrari has excellent downforce, so this is a good track for them.

Hamilton has 5 poles and 5 wins at Hungaroring. It's all about who would be in the lead after turn 1.

[Spoutnik]

Why would a max downforce track with mid-low corners and one small straight be bad for Ferrari ? They have no excuses to be slower here.

When did this out-developing happen? They were very close in Canada, slower in Q but comparable in the race in Baku, had practically identical pace in Austria and were behind in GB, hard to say how much with Raikkonen a leading car. You might speculate about oil or floor tricks or Merc fixing their problems but cars are still close.

Since the Spanish GP Mercedes is clearly ahead (bar the Monaco GP). In Baku Ferrari was nowhere near Hamilton pace in race or in qualy and without the trouble on the first corner and the epic race it would have been an easy 1-2 for Mercedes. In Canada they were not close again Hamilton battered them in qualy and Vettel was by quite a small margin in front of Bottas in Q3. In race the RB had a better pace overall (Verstappen 1st stint before the DNF). In Austria couldn't beat Bottas in qualy, and on race pace, the first stint Bottas was clearly faster and that was the opposite on the second stint (but we heard on Canal + that Merc pushed too much the gearbox settings and they change the gearbox of Lewis for this reason, but they thought for Bottas it will be fine but as Toto said "it was on the edge" so maybe they turn down everything on the last stint + that's why Bottas changed of gearbox at Silverstone). About Silverstone I think Ferrari were never close (long run pace and qualy pace), and it was more about damage limitation all the weekend. When someone who start in the 9th place finish between your cars (without the puncture) there is a problem.

I agree with the fact that Mercedes has been superior in Canada, Baku and Silverstone. It was expect to be like that but the worrying fact was Silverstone where the gap in the race was too big. Ferrari expected to be slighltly slower in those races(at least on qualy) but the difference in Silverstone was big, very big. Its true that without Vestappen blocking Vettel they should have finished 2-3th. But both Mercedes, and this important because I include Bottas, were faster. Hamilton was driving like between 2014-2016, with "one hand" when Rosberg was out.

Yes I agree with your first point, but you can't say that "without Verstappen Vettel would have finished 3rd", probably, the problem is when Bottas was on worn Soft tires he was matching the times of Vettel on fresh SS, that's why the gap never decreased between them (~15sec) and that's why Bottas overtake him so easily on fresh SS. As you say BOTH Mercedes were faster, the problem was simply the pace not Verstappen.

[godlameroso]

Ferrari has excellent downforce, so this is a good track for them.

Hamilton owns this circuit. 5 poles and 5 wins at Hungaroring. It's all about who would be in the lead after turn 1.

Didn't say Vettel would win, just that the track suits the Ferrari, and he has to win in order to maintain his championship bid alive, I didn't say anything about who owns what, not that I disagree with you.

[TAG]

...and he has to win in order to maintain his championship bid alive

The pressure has been mounting and IMO there's more pressure on Vettel than there is on Ferrari. Compounded by his recent behavior, three for three now, it's a must win for him one, because he doesn't want to go into the recess without the championship lead it would be a moral defeat two, because it would be seen as a clear demise of the Ferrari resurgence of 2017. Not good optics all around.

Arguments about what track suits what car, till we're blue in the face one driver is going into a circuit where he feels absolutely at home, just as much as in Canada. The other driver is going into a pressure cooker. This is what makes or breaks people.

Hopefully we can get a head to head battle instead of one where grid penalties determine the outcome from the start.

[Manjhi]

At the point where the slope of the red line on this graph goes from 30/race to 24/race, and the slope of the turquoise line goes from 32/race to 36/race.
http://u.cubeupload.com/ChrisDanger/201711ConPts.png

That is - Spain.

You can also see from that graph that RedBull made a leap ahead of Force India in Spain.

I think Force India no longer makes a track specific car, they have much better downforce than Williams but nowhere near when compared to RBs. I expected SFI to be ahead of RB in Baku, but RB did great job by getting the perfect setup.

Max in his car was clearly faster than Checo and was chasing him before the failure. SFI also couldn't match the RBs in Austria.

That proves that SFI no longer goes for the glory run at specific tracks, but they ensure that their car finishes in points at all tracks. Hence I think reliability wise their car is the best on the grid.

[Juzh]

Funny hearing about all those hamilton tracks when he's had the best car for the last 3 and half years.

[Juzh]

I predict pole in the low 17's high 16's, I don't think they can do 15's.

That's only a good 2 seconds faster than 2016 best sectors on a damp track. Too conservative estimate imo.

[godlameroso]

You may be right, I was way off for Silverstone, I thought it was going to be low 27's and it ends up being mid 26's, maybe high 16's, 16.7'ish then. That would be crazy it's over a second faster than 2010, 2017 Barcelona was .9 faster than 2010. 2010 Hungary was a 1:18.7, so a second faster than that, would be 17's, however I think teams have improved since Barcelona.

[Moose]

Okay, prediction time:

Qual:
1. HAM 1:16.5
2. BOT
3. RAI
4. VER
5. VET

Race:
1. HAM
2. BOT
3. VET

[ENGINE TUNER]

This is a clear Mercedes track as far as I'm concerned.

They were so dominant through Maggots and Beckets at Silverstone that I can't see this going any other way.

The teams will be running a different downforce level in Hungary than in Silverstone. Ferrari's high downforce package may produce more overall downforce(and less drag) as evidenced by their strong Monaco showing(or that could have all been about the tires). Or Ferrari is able to produce more downforce at a lower speed.

Silverstone could have been about Merc producing more efficient downforce at a higher speed or that downforce being more stable while under extreme direction changes.

Another factor will be the cooling abilities of the various teams.

Merc's speed thru Maggots and Beckets last week will have very little to tell us about their speed around the Hungaroring next week.

[ringo]

Kimi out qualifies vettel here again.
Alonso qualifies 7th.
Provided no mechanical gremlins for Lewis, i think he will be out qualifying the next person on the grid by Half a second. These high downforce cars really reward the drivers who are very aggressive.

[PlatinumZealot]

The Mercedes hasn't any upgrades since Baku confirmed by the drivers. Any differences in speed is down to set up and mapping.

And that isn't development?

Why split hairs? Yes it is but he meant part upgrades.

Each track has its own map and setup even if the parts are the same. Sometimes the engine itself is undeveloped and the mapping is for general power increase for all tracks.. See renault engine. This is development without an upgrade. But most of the time.. If the engine spec is developed, the mapping at each track is done to make the engine drieveable to the characteristics of that track and of course to maximise the ERS. In other words for the same engine Spec the monza map would not be the same as the Monaco Map. It not a develepment if the maps are already scripted so to speak. Just a different mode.
In colloquial f1-tech terms... Development is 90% of the time taken to mean new parts. But if you want to split hairs.... Yes.. Creating the various engine maps does count as development.

In the case of Ferrari and Mercedes at Silverstone.. I can assume that Ferrari had an optimized engine map for that track.. And behavoral trait of the chassis and their setup was probably the difference in the race. Hamilton and Bottas said there is no upgrade on the car so i believe them.

[PlatinumZealot]

The Mercedes hasn't any upgrades since Baku confirmed by the drivers. Any differences in speed is down to set up and mapping.

And that isn't development?

Why split hairs? Yes it is but he meant part upgrades.

Each track has its own map and setup even if the parts are the same. Sometimes the engine itself is undeveloped and the mapping is for general power increase for all tracks.. See renault engine. This is development without an upgrade. But most of the time.. If the engine spec is developed, the mapping at each track is done to make the engine drieveable to the characteristics of that track and of course to maximise the ERS. In other words for the same engine Spec the monza map would not be the same as the Monaco Map. I woud not count it as a "develepment" if the maps are already scripted so to speak. Just a different mode.
In colloquial f1-tech terms... Development is 90% of the time taken to mean new parts. But if you want to split hairs.... Yes.. Creating the various engine maps does count as development.

In the case of Ferrari and Mercedes at Silverstone.. I can assume that Ferrari had an optimized engine map for that track.. And behavoral trait of the chassis and their setup was probably the difference in the race. Hamilton and Bottas said there is no upgrade on the car so i believe them.