2017 Belgian Grand Prix - Spa Francorchamps, 25-27 August

[BanMeToo]

^ Kimi has been qualifying better lately.... should be interesting. Shame we're 3 weeks away!

[Manoah2u]

I see this as:

Raikkonen
Hamilton
Vettel

This is Kimi's favorite track, and I believe he will put together a stunning Q3 lap, and take pole to the chequered flag.

that's assuming the ferrari is able to do that, and the merc would not be. probability is, that the ferrari is going to be completely unable to make in impact compared to the mercs in spa.

[godlameroso]

Qualifying is going to be record breaking this year, a 1:42 is possible. Race laps won't be dog slow in the 52's, but in the 48's and as fast as 46's by the end.

Those 44 laps are going to fly by in just less than 1h 30m.

As far as tire wear, there hasn't been much difference between ultra and super soft. The Ultra can likely do 14 but as many as 16 laps, which leaves 28 laps for the softs, which is no problem at all. The SS tire will be useless this round.

Weather may play a factor, way too early to say, but rain usually plays a factor in the weekend.

[Hammerfist]

I see this as:

Raikkonen
Hamilton
Vettel

This is Kimi's favorite track, and I believe he will put together a stunning Q3 lap, and take pole to the chequered flag.

Kimi has a good chance of outqualifying Vettel, but the Mercs should be too strong for Ferrari in my opinion. Would be very surprised if it's not a Merc 1-2 on Saturday. In the race anything goes because Bottas's race pace has left little to be desired. Still, Hamilton should take the win fairly easily.

[godlameroso]

It'll be close, Spa is an aero track for all of sector two, if the Ferrari is faster there, it won't be a Mercedes walk in the park, not like Monza will be anyway.

[FrukostScones]

Anyone going on Sundy (only) , I might need a lift
PM

[Zynerji]

It'll be close, Spa is an aero track for all of sector two, if the Ferrari is faster there, it won't be a Mercedes walk in the park, not like Monza will be anyway.

If Merc doesnt get their tyres in the right window, I think Ferrari are going to lock out the front row, with RAI in 1st.

Merc looked very unstuck at the rear in Hungary, and if they bring that issue to S2 at Spa, Ferrari will put .5s on them in that sector alone.

[Artur Craft]

Qualifying is going to be record breaking this year, a 1:42 is possible. Race laps won't be dog slow in the 52's, but in the 48's and as fast as 46's by the end.

I guess that beats the enthusiasm of people predicting 1.16 for the Barcelona's pole, during the winter testing. I knew that would not be feasible already(I read an article with calculations based on brembo's data) but it wasn't so evident to everyone because the first dry Q3 is always a more solid evidence.

I won't be surprised at all if they don't go below even 1.44

It'll be close, Spa is an aero track for all of sector two, if the Ferrari is faster there, it won't be a Mercedes walk in the park, not like Monza will be anyway.

On this, we agree. I still think Mercedes will be better on Spa because they are just a little behind Ferrari, Red Bull and Mclaren on the fast corners but vastly faster than on the straights(not necessarily on speed traps). On Monza it will be like Canada.

[godlameroso]

I figured they'd be about a second faster than 2010 in Barcelona, the season was still young, I think the cars have added another second of performance since then. The fastest qualifying lap around Spa with the current layout I believe was the Toyota of Trulli in 2009 a 1:44.5 ish, I think they can beat that. If the cars this year are around 2.6 seconds faster than last year on average, as they were in Silverstone at least, then they should be able to do high 43's low 44's at the very least. If we take Baku, Hamilton was just over 2 seconds faster than Rosberg in 2016, so at the very least a 1:44 is possible. Last year's pole was a 1:46.7, but Rosberg didn't need to go all out as his main competition was starting on the back row, if he really gunned it, I'm sure he could have done a 1:46.5 at least, so minus 2 seconds would be a 1:44.5, and 2.6 seconds would make it 1:43.9.

I've been conservatively wrong on every prediction I've made thus far, so I figured I'd try going the other route this time

[PlatinumZealot]

Interesting that the 2016 pole lap on super soft was only just over 0.2s faster than the fastest time in Q2 on the soft tyre, with a best sector 2 by Rosberg slower than RB and Ferrari. Is there not such a big lap time gain between the softer tyres here? I would've thought the softer compounds would be particularly helpful in sector 2.

Hope Pirelli don't mandate crazy high tyre pressures like last year.

Tyre temps and large turn radii minimize the differences between the two compounds.

[ringo]

I see this as:

Raikkonen
Hamilton
Vettel

This is Kimi's favorite track, and I believe he will put together a stunning Q3 lap, and take pole to the chequered flag.

Vettel will just crash him out of the race at the start if he is ahead on the grid.

[Hammerfist]

I figured they'd be about a second faster than 2010 in Barcelona, the season was still young, I think the cars have added another second of performance since then. The fastest qualifying lap around Spa with the current layout I believe was the Toyota of Trulli in 2009 a 1:44.5 ish, I think they can beat that. If the cars this year are around 2.6 seconds faster than last year on average, as they were in Silverstone at least, then they should be able to do high 43's low 44's at the very least. If we take Baku, Hamilton was just over 2 seconds faster than Rosberg in 2016, so at the very least a 1:44 is possible. Last year's pole was a 1:46.7, but Rosberg didn't need to go all out as his main competition was starting on the back row, if he really gunned it, I'm sure he could have done a 1:46.5 at least, so minus 2 seconds would be a 1:44.5, and 2.6 seconds would make it 1:43.9.

I've been conservatively wrong on every prediction I've made thus far, so I figured I'd try going the other route this time

They will be much slower on the straights though, due to the extra drag. I'd say we'll see low 45s for pole.

[matt_b]

Remembering last year it was a tenth and a half between mercedes and red bull in Q3. Given that the engine advantage is smaller this year I expect it to be close between the big 3. The good thing is that you can overtake at Spa.

[godlameroso]

I figured they'd be about a second faster than 2010 in Barcelona, the season was still young, I think the cars have added another second of performance since then. The fastest qualifying lap around Spa with the current layout I believe was the Toyota of Trulli in 2009 a 1:44.5 ish, I think they can beat that. If the cars this year are around 2.6 seconds faster than last year on average, as they were in Silverstone at least, then they should be able to do high 43's low 44's at the very least. If we take Baku, Hamilton was just over 2 seconds faster than Rosberg in 2016, so at the very least a 1:44 is possible. Last year's pole was a 1:46.7, but Rosberg didn't need to go all out as his main competition was starting on the back row, if he really gunned it, I'm sure he could have done a 1:46.5 at least, so minus 2 seconds would be a 1:44.5, and 2.6 seconds would make it 1:43.9.

I've been conservatively wrong on every prediction I've made thus far, so I figured I'd try going the other route this time

They will be much slower on the straights though, due to the extra drag. I'd say we'll see low 45s for pole.

They'll lose about 10kmh on the straights but gain 15-20kmh on almost every turn in sector 2.

We'll see in a few weeks.

[TAG]

These cars were made for mid to high speed corners. They'll be dipping into the 43s.