2017 Japanese Grand Prix - Suzuka, 6-8 October

[ChrisDanger]

Circuit and Event Information









Tyre Allocations



2016 Qualifying Results (link to wiki)



2016 Race Results (link to wiki)



2016 Pole Lap:



Championship Tables

World Driver's Championship Table


World Driver's Championship, Positions


World Driver's Championship, Points


World Driver's Championship, Points - Midfield Zoom


World Constructor's Championship Table


World Constructor's Championship, Positions


World Constructor's Championship, Points


World Constructor's Championship, Points - Midfield Zoom

[f1316]

Everything does look very good from a Mercedes perspective - looking at that constructors championships graph alone, you'd be sure they had completely out developed Ferrari during the season.

But underneath the surface they still may not feel that comfortable; today, on a circuit with a good amount of straight, where they took Pole, verstappen was significantly quicker than Hamilton; and I think most would agree, Vettel had the pace to be even faster than Max.

More worryingly for them, their update package really didn't work and I can't remember the last time I said that. Why didn't it work, will be the question they'll need to solve to ensure they don't find themselves dropping points to two team/four drivers in some of the upcoming races.

And whilst I think Austin is likely to be a happier hunting ground for them, I'm not sure Suzuka is - Lewis himself voiced the same concerns a couple of races ago. It's a place where they're likely to run very high downforce configurations - more so than Barcelona and much more so than Silverstone - and this has not been their best config this year.

If Vettel gets a penalty then that will help them but I wouldn't be surprised to see them with the 3rd faster car both in Japan and elsewhere (probably Austin the only obvious exception) and, if so, even a 34 point lead is not unassailable.

[NathanOlder]

As long as its not too hot they will be in much better shape. Merc have had their struggles in Hot or Slow circuits. This is neither so they may be back to the front.

Just looked and it looks like 22-24°C at Suzuka on sunday. So still warm, but not like Malaysia.

[SectorOne]

Finally arrived at the best track in the world. The flow around this track is just pure genius.

[Fulcrum]

This circuit hasn't typically been a runaway-and-hide track for Mercedes. In addition, being one of the more difficult circuits to pass at, if a Ferrari lead into the first corner I wouldn't be surprised if it won the race.

[Restomaniac]

Well I would have said a Mercedes track.
But now ? Who the hell knows.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Current weather prediction. "IF" Mercedes' problem was largely due to the higher temperatures, then they should get away in Suzuka. Far more cooler temperatures, than Malaysia and far lesser humidity too. What remains as a question is, will they get their updates working in Suzuka? They get 4 days of analysis and rectification for what made the car vulnerable when they bolted the upgrades. OR will they focus on optimizing the car without the upgrades?

Taking pole and getting a good start, would mostly gets the job done.

"On paper Suzuka should suit us.

"There were some question marks over Malaysia - we should have been quicker than we were but Suzuka should be much more in the window.

Saturday


Sunday

[SamH123]

I think Malaysia was a one off for Mercedes, it's possible they could be back to Silverstone level dominance here

The clue for me was the rest of the pack were much closer to Mercedes than normal In Suzuka, if Mercedes had been normal distance ahead of the pack and Ferrari/Red Bull were still faster than I might have said differently

[iotar__]

Everything does look very good from a Mercedes perspective - looking at that constructors championships graph alone, you'd be sure they had completely out developed Ferrari during the season.

- Every element: premise, connections and conclusion is so wrong I lost mu breath for five seconds . Start with Malaysia, go backwards to Singapore, Monza, Spa, Hungary and tell me about out-developing.
- WCC situation: where do I start, drivers (including objectively inept Raikkonen)? First races dynamic? Lost chances in RussiaIIII, AustriaII, CanadaII. ChinaII, BakuIII, SpainII ? Not much correlation between development/car and points.

In the other direction here comes Mercedes after Monaco underdog routine (out-developing?)

"More worryingly for them , their update package really didn't work and I can't remember the last time I said that."

Or maybe it's track and limited laps related on top of running one driver team? It's not like the season is almost dead with 5 races to go and only DNFs can change it. Let's create some fake excitement:
- Hamilton is worried.
- Can Bottas be even slower?
- Will Raikkonen miss another race?

Cheap prediction: Suzuka is different, Mercedes will be the quickest, Ferrari close. One variable: will they squeeze the second stop out of 1,5? It may help slower in Q and quicker in the race cars on a difficult to overtake track.

[SiLo]

The clue for me was the rest of the pack were much closer to Mercedes than normal In Suzuka, if Mercedes had been normal distance ahead of the pack and Ferrari/Red Bull were still faster than I might have said differently

Agree with this sentiment, when we arrive at tracks where tyre management is important, Mercedes seem to do slightly worse, and the entire field seems to bunch up a tad. I think the cars in these instances, become slightly tyre limited driving them all towards a middle ground. Cars with great tyre management then excel.

[AMG.Tzan]

The clue for me was the rest of the pack were much closer to Mercedes than normal In Suzuka, if Mercedes had been normal distance ahead of the pack and Ferrari/Red Bull were still faster than I might have said differently

Agree with this sentiment, when we arrive at tracks where tyre management is important, Mercedes seem to do slightly worse, and the entire field seems to bunch up a tad. I think the cars in these instances, become slightly tyre limited driving them all towards a middle ground. Cars with great tyre management then excel.

Agree here! They had the same problems in 2015 at the same tracks...Hungary, Singapore and Malaysia! It has to do with tires as you said and temperatures being high! So i think it will be back to normal at Suzuka, but still they will be close i think...and Vettel is really good here!
I love this track...so fast and so difficult to get it right! Always looking forward to this race!

[JonoNic]

I hope Mclaren does better here than last year. It was a track that they expected to do well.

[godlameroso]

Where are you supposed to brake for degner1?

[godlameroso]

I hope Mclaren does better here than last year. It was a track that they expected to do well.

It'll be hard for McLaren, the main straight, the run from the hairpin to spoon, and the back straight all play against them.

Suzuka is generally 2 seconds faster than Sepang so pole will be a 1:28 maybe high 27? Race laps starting in the 35's and ending in the 32's.

A trend I've noticed is fastest race laps this year are as fast as pole laps from 2015. More or less.

[Vasconia]

Suzuka´s package and cooler temperatures should help Mercedes so I expect a pole for Lewis. Sadly for Ferrari, if the gearbox penaly is confirmed they will be lucky if they can reach the podium.
An undercut is the only change to overtake both RB on this track, which is pretty bad to overtake.

So right now, and sadly, Ferrari needs a DNF for Lewis if they want to continue fighting for the WC.

My bet:

Pole:
1. Hamilton
2. Vettel
3. Verstappen
4. Raikkonen
5. Bottas
6. Ricciardo
7. Perez
8. Hulkenberg
9. Occon
10. Alonso

Race:(with the grind penalty for Vettel):

1. Hamilton
2. Verstappen
3. Vettel
4. Ricciardo
5. Kimi
6. Hulkenbreg
7. Alonso
8. Sainz
9. Perez
10. Stroll