According to AMuS long run analysis from FP1, Mercedes is on form again and it looks to be quite close between the top 3, although the low temperatures could have been a factor with temperatures to be expected to be warmer on Sunday.
http://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/form ... 02865.html
Driver | Average Stint time | No. Laps | Tire
1. Vettel 1.32,758 4 supersoft
2. Räikkönen 1.33,190 5 supersoft
3. Hamilton 1.34,179 10 supersoft
4. Verstappen 1.34,545 10 supersoft
5. Ricciardo 1.34,734 8 supersoft
6. Grosjean 1.35,011 5 supersoft
7. Vandoorne 1.35,690 4 supersoft
Apparently, Vettel was running light (half tank) according to their data, which is why they were 1.43 seconds below his rivals. This is interesting and IMO could perhaps lead one to think that Vettel may indeed take a grid penalty and do a reverse strategy? Although if that were the case, then I suppose news would have already slipped out? *
Anyway, RedBull was running a similar stint to Mercedes and Max was according to the data around 3 tenths slower. Coming back to Mercedes, Bottas was on a similar level to Hamilton. Toto Wolff also said that until T7, they are as quick as Ferrari. However. the tires then heat up significantly in the long left-hander which takes a while for them to get back into the normal operating temperature on the next straight.
* Bottas will definately be taking a grid penalty hit as the gearbox needed to be changed. Apparently tests after Malaysia showed that their were metal splinters/debris inside the gearbox. As a safety precaution, the gearbox will be changed. I assume Vettel will indeed not take a penalty, as that would have already made the news so far.