Spanish GP 2008

[checkered]

I took the trouble of

making some estimations that I know will be proved wrong. These are based on a pseudo-mathematical analysis of qualy times (comparisons between team mates and performance between the sections).

From there on, fuel levels have been extrapolated to fit the 2007 strategies with a suitable coefficient and quesstimating which drivers opted for stops that aren't within that framework. Performance up until lap 26 (all top ten should've stopped by then) has been modelled with arithmetic series roughly simulating vehicle weight and simple constants have been applied to account for drivers settling on the driving line after the start. Pitstops have been accounted for, baseline speeds have been determined from relative speeds in the qualy with reference to the comparable performances in 2007.

I left vehicle interactions, the human element (driver performance) and tyre strategies out of the equations. This should mess up the results of this "prediction" nicely already, not considering true unknowns even. I only did this to see just how this sort of stuff doesn't work. Self organising maps and genetic algorithms will have to wait until I get my "nerd on", if ever.

1st Pit stop windows by TOP10 drivers:

RAI 19-20-21
ALO 16-17-18 (prob. unreliable due to tactic being outside conventional)
MAS 23-24-25 (prob. not right on account of a mistake)
KUB 21-22-23
HAM 18-19-20
KOV 19-20-21
WEB 17-18-19 (lack of comparison to team mate adds to uncertainty)
TRU 19-20-21 (lack of comparison to team mate adds to uncertainty)
HEI 23-24-25
PIQ 23-24-25

Positions after first pit stops have been made, L26 + distance to the leader

1. RAI 0:36,58.570
2. MAS +5.500
3. ALO +12.400
4. KUB +14.010
5. HAM +18.090
6. KOV +20.400
7. HEI +27.160
8. WEB +30.790
9. TRU +30.900
10. PIQ +31.760

Drivers beyond TOP10 and their effect not considered.

[bhall]

Looks like Raikkonen and Massa are using different rear wings, with Massa using the higher downforce wing.

EDIT: Goodness, I hope Kovalainen is OK after that crash. My stomach is turning after seeing the car being taken from the tire barrier. It looks terrible.

[roost89]

That was a big crash for Heikki! From the updates from the TV they were saying that he was ok. Which shows that all the effort that's going into making F1 cars safer is working!

There was a very high-DNF rate aswell. Especially from engines - were most people racing on worn engines? It was really un-lucky for Alonso and Rosberg to lose their engines when both in points scoring positions! Either way I think Rosberg did really well to get into points, even if he was helped some way.

[Saribro]

There was a very high-DNF rate aswell. Especially from engines - were most people racing on worn engines?

Yes, added to that the long safety-car period which is very hard on engines because of the lack of cooling (low speed = low airflow = less cooling).

[Miguel]

That was a big crash for Heikki! From the updates from the TV they were saying that he was ok. Which shows that all the effort that's going into making F1 cars safer is working!

I was breathless after his crash. Thumbs up to the TV crew for not showing anything until we knew he was conscious and in one pice, and two thumbs up to those cars. They are stronger than tanks. I fear though the negative spiral we are in right now. Kubica and Kovi today were pretty serious, and Hamilton at Nürburgring also had a nasty crash.

There was a very high-DNF rate aswell. Especially from engines - were most people racing on worn engines? It was really un-lucky for Alonso and Rosberg to lose their engines when both in points scoring positions! Either way I think Rosberg did really well to get into points, even if he was helped some way.

Both Alonso and Rosberg were with old engines and old gearboxes (4 GP's). Rosberg's engine was also the one with most mileage. Other old-engine old-gearbox combos were both McLarens. I don't remember what gearbox GP was this for Raikkonen, though.

By the way, great job Checkered! It was pretty accurate! We did have one safety car lap and Massa had a costly mistake too. I would have liked to see the time gaps between top ten, although going out behind Rubens did hurt Fernando's chances.

[bhall]

Anyone else growing weary of all these "racing incidents" involving David Coulthard?

[allan]

i agree... and what really pisses me off is that he doesnt addmitt his mistakes!!
besides, it took him ages to pass sato who was 2-3 seconds slower than him!!
hate to say it, but looks like somebody is growin old... if i were in his place, i'd retire and save my reputation, rather than bangin into other people's cars!
Im still not impressed with piquet... AT ALL! i wonder why falvio hasnt criticized him yet, like he did with Hekki

[modbaraban]

Anyone else growing weary of all these "racing incidents" involving David Coulthard?

Hang on! This time it was a clear Glock's mistake! DC never gave him way, and Timo just ran into his back. If that was not a racing incident then Timo should be penalized for gaining a position by puncturing DC's tyre

PS: I agree about 'incidents' in previous races tho.

besides, it took him ages to pass sato who was 2-3 seconds slower than him!!
hate to say it, but looks like somebody is growin old...

Should Heidfeld retire as well? It took him much more to overtake Fisi in FIF1

In fact it's just the track that makes overtaking hardly possible (esp. since the last corner fun was ruined in 2007)

[WhiteBlue]

Not a great race. Heikki's accident was really scary. I'm glad they strengthened the tubs after what happened to Michael 1999. The monocoque was broken in front and one could see the light through it. Hopefully he gets away without serious leg injuries or head decelleration trauma. Macca need to seriously look at those wheel nuts or whatever it was. It looked very similar to HAMs accident at the Ring.

Renault deserve the title of most improved team due to their J-damper as previously assumed. Alonso did a very nice job after the team put him on a lower fuel load. shame they all got little cooling and engines took it hard.

Tough luck for Vettel. What must the poor guy do to get into a race and show what he can do? Sutil needs to cool down a bit.

Great shame for Nick. He would have run 5th if he could have come in a lap earlier or the SC and the rescue had been a lap shorter.

Congratulations to Kimi and Ferrari. They deserved the win and should enjoy the day.

[Ciro Pabón]

Pity Alonso blewing the engine.

Following Miguel's lead, here you have the engine usage up to Sakhir:

Averages in [] indicate that the driver/team/engine supplier is halfway
through a two-race cycle, so in Montmeló they were using a "second-hand" engine.

C# Driver(s)           Engine            E#    Km.    Avg.   Next 
================================================================== 
 7  Nico Rosberg        Toyota RVX-08     2   1,443   [722] 
 3  Nick Heidfeld       BMW P86/8         2   1,435   [718] 
 5  Fernando Alonso     Renault RS27      2   1,392   [696] 
22  Lewis Hamilton      Mercedes FO108V   2   1,386   [693] 
 4  Robert Kubica       BMW P86/8         2   1,382    691   NENGP 
23  Heikki Kovalainen   Mercedes FO108V   2   1,375   [688] 
17  Rubens Barrichello  Honda RA808E      2   1,363   [682] 
 8  Kazuki Nakajima     Toyota RVX-08     2   1,346   [673] 
 1  Kimi Räikkönen      Ferrari 056       2   1,291    646   NENGP 
11  Jarno Trulli        Toyota RVX-08     2   1,278    639   NENGP 
 9  David Coulthard     Renault RS27      2   1,189    595   NENGP 
18  Takuma Sato         Honda RA808E      2   1,129   [565] 
12  Timo Glock          Toyota RVX-08     2   1,127    564   NENGP 
 6  Nelsinho Piquet     Renault RS27      2   1,103    552   NENGP 
 2  Felipe Massa        Ferrari 056       2   1,100    550   NENGP 
10  Mark Webber         Renault RS27      2   1,090   [545] 
21  G Fisichella        Ferrari 056       2   1,052   [526] 
14  Sebastien Bourdais  Ferrari 056       2   1,037    519   NENGP 
19  Anthony Davidson    Honda RA808E      2     996   [498] 
16  Jenson Button       Honda RA808E      2     949   [475]  FCNGP 
15  Sebastian Vettel    Ferrari 056       2     702   [351]  FCNGP 
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 
20  Adrian Sutil        Ferrari 056       3     811   [270] 
------------------------------------------------------------------ 
                                         45  25,976   [577]

NENGP - New Engine at Next GP (Montmeló)
FCNGP - "Free" engine Change at Next GP (Montmeló)

[bhall]

Hang on! This time it was a clear Glock's mistake! DC never gave him way, and Timo just ran into his back. If that was not a racing incident then Timo should be penalized for gaining a position by puncturing DC's tyre

PS: I agree about 'incidents' in previous races tho.

I saw it differently. Coulthard appeared to slow off the pace coming into that corner. Glock, looking to seize the opportunity, ducked in to pass, only to have Coulthard close the door, which has quickly become his M.O. of late.

[bizadfar]

Hang on! This time it was a clear Glock's mistake! DC never gave him way, and Timo just ran into his back. If that was not a racing incident then Timo should be penalized for gaining a position by puncturing DC's tyre

PS: I agree about 'incidents' in previous races tho.

I saw it differently. Coulthard appeared to slow off the pace coming into that corner. Glock, looking to seize the opportunity, ducked in to pass, only to have Coulthard close the door, which has quickly become his M.O. of late.

He didn't move from the race line, he sensed Glock was going to duck down and parked it in the middle fairly blocking. This one wasn't his fault.
The other incidents he seems to have is just turning into someone already there..

Pity Alonso blewing the engine.

Following Miguel's lead, here you have the engine usage up to Sakhir:

Averages in [] indicate that the driver/team/engine supplier is halfway
through a two-race cycle, so in Montmeló they were using a "second-hand" engine.

C# Driver(s)           Engine            E#    Km.    Avg.   Next 
================================================================== 
 7  Nico Rosberg        Toyota RVX-08     2   1,443   [722] 
 3  Nick Heidfeld       BMW P86/8         2   1,435   [718] 
 5  Fernando Alonso     Renault RS27      2   1,392   [696] 
22  Lewis Hamilton      Mercedes FO108V   2   1,386   [693] 
 4  Robert Kubica       BMW P86/8         2   1,382    691   NENGP 
23  Heikki Kovalainen   Mercedes FO108V   2   1,375   [688] 
17  Rubens Barrichello  Honda RA808E      2   1,363   [682] 
 8  Kazuki Nakajima     Toyota RVX-08     2   1,346   [673] 
 1  Kimi Räikkönen      Ferrari 056       2   1,291    646   NENGP 
11  Jarno Trulli        Toyota RVX-08     2   1,278    639   NENGP 
 9  David Coulthard     Renault RS27      2   1,189    595   NENGP 
18  Takuma Sato         Honda RA808E      2   1,129   [565] 
12  Timo Glock          Toyota RVX-08     2   1,127    564   NENGP 
 6  Nelsinho Piquet     Renault RS27      2   1,103    552   NENGP 
 2  Felipe Massa        Ferrari 056       2   1,100    550   NENGP 
10  Mark Webber         Renault RS27      2   1,090   [545] 
21  G Fisichella        Ferrari 056       2   1,052   [526] 
14  Sebastien Bourdais  Ferrari 056       2   1,037    519   NENGP 
19  Anthony Davidson    Honda RA808E      2     996   [498] 
16  Jenson Button       Honda RA808E      2     949   [475]  FCNGP 
15  Sebastian Vettel    Ferrari 056       2     702   [351]  FCNGP 
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 
20  Adrian Sutil        Ferrari 056       3     811   [270] 
------------------------------------------------------------------ 
                                         45  25,976   [577]

NENGP - New Engine at Next GP (Montmeló)
FCNGP - "Free" engine Change at Next GP (Montmeló)

This includes Friday?

[roost89]

i agree... and what really pisses me off is that he doesnt addmitt his mistakes!!
besides, it took him ages to pass sato who was 2-3 seconds slower than him!!
hate to say it, but looks like somebody is growin old... if i were in his place, i'd retire and save my reputation, rather than bangin into other people's cars!
Im still not impressed with piquet... AT ALL! i wonder why falvio hasnt criticized him yet, like he did with Hekki

I don't think todays incident between DC and Glock was DC's fault. From the TV footage, it did appear like Glock was way too fast into the corner and didn't even look like he would've made the apex if DC had let him through. Glock is relatively in-experienced and the mirrors, like has been said so many times by Martin, are a peice of piss and probably not even worth having on the car.

I think that DC will retire at the end of this year and allow Vettel (what an un-lucky season for the lad! yet to finish a race and 3/4 1st lap incidents) to drive the Red Bull. Really give him some wings.

[Moanlower]

i agree... and what really pisses me off is that he doesnt addmitt his mistakes!!
besides, it took him ages to pass sato who was 2-3 seconds slower than him!!
hate to say it, but looks like somebody is growin old... if i were in his place, i'd retire and save my reputation, rather than bangin into other people's cars!
Im still not impressed with piquet... AT ALL! i wonder why falvio hasnt criticized him yet, like he did with Hekki

DC didn't do anything wrong. Sutil was over optimistic and dived in a gap that wasn't there! DC wasn't to blame in Australia either. Youngsters as Sutil, Piquet or Massa needs to learn whether there's a gap to overtake or not.
You have to back off as long as you didn't put your car completely alongside the one you want to take over.

I guess you also have no idea how difficult it is nowadays to overtake someone or even drive near ones rear spoiler, even if your 4 seconds faster ??

Piquet did already show that match the pace of Alonso quite closely. Don't forget he is driving one of the most difficult cars of the pack. Give him some credit to learn.

[Ray]

DC didn't do anything wrong. Sutil was over optimistic and dived in a gap that wasn't there! DC wasn't to blame in Australia either. Youngsters as Sutil, Piquet or Massa needs to learn whether there's a gap to overtake or not.
You have to back off as long as you didn't put your car completely alongside the one you want to take over.

DC was completely at fault with Massa. If you think he wasn't you need to get your eyes checked or go do some actual racing yourself. You'll see he has the habit of closing the door on people who have the advatage over them, then blaming them for what happens. He needs to either own up to the fact he doesn't race others cleanly or hang up his helmet. And I say that as a DC fan from his McLaren days.