[2018] Pecking order speculation thread

[techman]

Yeah i think STR will beat Mercedes...

i like your sense of humour . mercedes 2018 champs

[HPD]

1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Renault
5. Force India
6. Mclaren
7. Toro Rosso
8. Williams
9. Hass
10. Sauber

You know that this is true

[FelixAustria]

Mercedes
Ferrari/Red Bull +0.8s
Renault +1.2s
Williams +1.8s
Haas/McLaren +2.0s
Force India +2.3s
Toro Rosso +2.5s
Sauber +2.9s

For now

Agree just that Wiliams will be behind Mcl and Haas due to drivers .

I honestly dont think McLaren will be 0.8 seconds behind Renault. Nopes.

Surprisingly Mark Hughes thinks in the same direction: https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opin ... side-times

His ranking is:
MER (gap in sec)
RBR +0.3
FER +0.3
REN +0.9
WIL +1.4
HF1 +1.9
MCL +1.9
FOI +2.2
STR +2.6
SAU +2.9

[Phil]

So I have read Mark Hughes article above. Interesting stuff.

IMO - if we consider for a moment that the top 3 cars (Mercedes, RedBull, Ferrari) have brought evolutions to this season, perhaps the general traits of last year will be somewhat similar too. As far as I remember, Mercedes usually went well in cooler conditions and on slightly harder compounds. They suffered most in hot conditions, probably as a result of tires overheating. On tracks like Monaco, Hungary, Singapore (sans the race when it was significantly cooler and wet), they had the issue that the tires were difficult to bring into consistently into the correct temperature range. From what I can recall in interviews, the consensus was "tires overheat in the corners, then cool down on the straights and the cycle begins again".

Applying this to Barcelona with these cold conditions, just maybe, these conditions favor the Mercedes slightly. They ran on the harder compound (medium, being last years soft) vs both Ferrari and RedBull who used the slightly softer compound for their runs. This to me seems that the Mercedes is perhaps more aggressive in heating up their tires. This could be an advantage in colder conditions or perhaps even in wet weather when inters are used and working the tires to put heat into them becomes crucial. However, if conditions are warmer and we are looking at track conditions over 30°C, will the Mercedes be pushing the tires too far and out of the ideal working range, as they arguably did last year too, especially when ultras and super-softs were used on the tracks?

If this presumption is somewhat true, perhaps we could see similar traits again this year. Mercedes strong on "power circuits" and especially under conditions when it's cooler and they can use the harder compounds. However under hot conditions, could they find themselves in trouble? The Mercedes has historically not been the most "adaptable car" - the car strong under every condition and track. That was Ferrari and towards the end RedBull.

Despite these initial pointers, I think I'll remain somewhat skeptical and stick with my speculation on RB and Ferrari being perhaps quicker than Mercedes. I think over the year, if the Renault engine is improved, I could see them being extremely strong. Mercedes and Ferrari perhaps closer, but Mercedes quicker on the power circuits and cooler conditions, Ferrari perhaps the better all-round package again... Just my humble prediction based on last year and this very limited testing week so far.

[marvin78]

Mercedes was by far the fastes car at the end of last season in any conditions. I don't see a reason why that would have changed. I don't buy the BS about a "diva". The car was good and mostly dominant (after Barcelona), like the years before. The PU is by far the best. That will not change all of a sudden.

[TAG]

Both Vettel and Hamilton will have a good shot at their fifth title, the race threads are going to be fun.

[GoranF1]

Both Vettel and Hamilton will have a good shot at their fifth title, the race threads are going to be fun.

What about Alonso's 3rd?

[TAG]

Both Vettel and Hamilton will have a good shot at their fifth title, the race threads are going to be fun.

What about Alonso's 3rd?

He may get a win in Singapore with an extremely opportunistic pit stop.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Code: Select all

So I have read Mark Hughes article above. Interesting stuff.

IMO - if we consider for a moment that the top 3 cars (Mercedes, RedBull, Ferrari) have brought evolutions to this season, perhaps the general traits of last year will be somewhat similar too. As far as I remember, Mercedes usually went well in cooler conditions and on slightly harder compounds. They suffered most in hot conditions, probably as a result of tires overheating. On tracks like Monaco, Hungary, Singapore  (sans the race when it was significantly cooler and wet), they had the issue that the tires were difficult to bring into consistently into the correct temperature range. From what I can recall in interviews, the consensus was "tires overheat in the corners, then cool down on the straights and the cycle begins again".

Applying this to Barcelona with these cold conditions, just maybe, these conditions favor the Mercedes slightly. They ran on the harder compound (medium, being last years soft) vs both Ferrari and RedBull who used the slightly softer compound for their runs. This to me seems that the Mercedes is perhaps more aggressive in heating up their tires. This could be an advantage in colder conditions or perhaps even in wet weather when inters are used and working the tires to put heat into them becomes crucial. However, if conditions are warmer and we are looking at track conditions over 30°C, will the Mercedes be pushing the tires too far and out of the ideal working range, as they arguably did last year too, especially when ultras and super-softs were used on the tracks?

If this presumption is somewhat true, perhaps we could see similar traits again this year. Mercedes strong on "power circuits" and especially under conditions when it's cooler and they can use the harder compounds. However under hot conditions, could they find themselves in trouble? The Mercedes has historically not been the most "adaptable car" - the car strong under every condition and track. That was Ferrari and towards the end RedBull.

Despite these initial pointers, I think I'll remain somewhat skeptical and stick with my speculation on RB and Ferrari being perhaps quicker than Mercedes. I think over the year, if the Renault engine is improved, I could see them being extremely strong. Mercedes and Ferrari perhaps closer, but Mercedes quicker on the power circuits and cooler conditions, Ferrari perhaps the better all-round package again... Just my humble prediction based on last year and this very limited testing week so far.

I have seen your comments of late about 2018 and you seem to have a certain optimism towards Red Bull somehow becoming stronger car. I am not sure how that is going to happen. Not that I don't want it, but just that my side of logical thinking doesn't allow me to accept that could be high probability.

If we look back at the rise of Red Bull through 2009 to 2013, a number of outside factors also contributed towards their rise and to form their reputation of being a strong Aerodynamics organization. Ferrari went into decline mode after the departure of Tod-Brawn-Michael-Rory. McLaren always blew hot and cold and their lust with going astray by choosing to be unnecessarily adventurous and shooting their own foot. What should have been McLaren titles in 2012, went to RB. In 2013, Mercedes had the fastest car, but with fundamental vulnerability of tyre eating habit and equally, Mercedes was a team on the rise and probably required that bit extra time to rise.

What we saw in 2017, with regards how Mercedes went from strength to strength by meticulously working through the challenges of their car, shows the kind of strength and depth they have in their ranks and their ability to nail down the root of the problems and coming out with solutions and emerging out of the problems, even stronger. You just cannot discount these factors and look at Red Bull to beat them, especially while they got their fundamental design so wrong last year and it was only after the summer break that their car looked in decent shape.

It would be a competition of team skills between Mercedes and Red Bull, if Renault indeed give RB a good PU. But, I am sure, unlike the Ferrari and McLaren of the early decade, Mercedes isn't going to let the RB go unpunished when they get stuck in difficult situations.

[Blackout]

If we look back at the rise of Red Bull through 2009 to 2013, a number of outside factors also contributed towards their rise and to form their reputation of being a strong Aerodynamics organization.

They had the best engine which has also improved their aerodynamic excellence thanks to the diffusr blowing.
Now please continue.

[dans79]

Applying this to Barcelona with these cold conditions, just maybe, these conditions favor the Mercedes slightly. They ran on the harder compound (medium, being last years soft) vs both Ferrari and RedBull who used the slightly softer compound for their runs. This to me seems that the Mercedes is perhaps more aggressive in heating up their tires. This could be an advantage in colder conditions or perhaps even in wet weather when inters are used and working the tires to put heat into them becomes crucial. However, if conditions are warmer and we are looking at track conditions over 30°C, will the Mercedes be pushing the tires too far and out of the ideal working range, as they arguably did last year too, especially when ultras and super-softs were used on the tracks?

I have to disagree with you on this point Phil. I don't think Mercedes was overheating the tires, I think they couldn't keep them in the operating window consistently. Some times it looked like they couldn't switch them on, and others like they were cooking them.

Ferrari on the other hand looked like they could switch them on quickly and then keep them in the operating window easily across a wide range of suspension set-ups. If anything I would say Ferrari might have been harder on their tires, Silverstone and Austin being examples.

[dren]

Agree just that Wiliams will be behind Mcl and Haas due to drivers .

I honestly dont think McLaren will be 0.8 seconds behind Renault. Nopes.

Surprisingly Mark Hughes thinks in the same direction: https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opin ... side-times

His ranking is:
MER (gap in sec)
RBR +0.3
FER +0.3
REN +0.9
WIL +1.4
HF1 +1.9
MCL +1.9
FOI +2.2
STR +2.6
SAU +2.9

Interesting. I think it's still up in the air where FI and TR will be. I think the midfield will be tighter, and change race to race. Renault do look like the best of the rest, though. Sauber doesn't look like it has moved up much.

[dans79]

If we look back at the rise of Red Bull through 2009 to 2013, a number of outside factors also contributed towards their rise and to form their reputation of being a strong Aerodynamics organization.

They had the best engine which has also improved their aerodynamic excellence thanks to the diffusr blowing.
Now please continue.

Ironically, the ace up Renault's sleeve was that their engine was the most efficient. That's now something widely claimed about the Mercedes power unit.

[Phil]

I have seen your comments of late about 2018 and you seem to have a certain optimism towards Red Bull somehow becoming stronger car. I am not sure how that is going to happen. Not that I don't want it, but just that my side of logical thinking doesn't allow me to accept that could be high probability.

It’s all in a bit of fun, but yes, i am somewhat assuming/speculating/banking on the powerunit gap decreasing further as a result of less oil burning and more checks regarding what is in that oil they’ll be using. This will help Renault/RB in qualifying. I also think they showed an extremely strong package towards the end of the year and my guess it will be even stronger this season.

This may also come off as a bit pesimistic, but i also think Mercedes went with an evolution, not because they think it is better, but because it is a known quantity and they feel more comfortable in decreasing the faults they had and retaining their strenghts. Going high rake would be a new concept and would surely be a step into the unknown. Yet, the characteristics of a diva are undisputed. Call it diva or narrow operating window of tires. Last season, best qualifying pace kept them ahead and they also had a good PU advantage vs Renault engined cars. I think that gap will come down with the clamp down on oil usage.

Maybe the 3 PU limit will help Mercedes, maybe. Or maybe Mercedes pull out the imposdible again with their all new engine. Maybe. I’ll just be surprised if they pull it off, again.

And dont get me wrong, i hope they do. But i also think last year showed some distinct patterns on when the Mercedes worked and when it didnt and struggled.

[gandharva]

Adjusted fastest laptimes (normalised for soft compound tyre) according to Gary Anderson:

1 Red Bull 1m 18.129s
2 Mercedes 1m 18.383s
3 Ferrari 1m 19.123s
4 Renault 1m 19.373s
5 McLaren 1m 19.425s
6 Haas 1m 20.367s
7 Toro Rosso 1m 20.418s
8 Williams 1m 20.792s
9 Force India 1m 21.341s
10 Sauber 1m 21.771s