2018 pre-season testing thread

[GPR-A duplicate2]

According to f1debrief's times, Bottas had an avg lap of 1:20.5 yesterday across 62 laps, Ham today 1:21.5 across 59 laps. Similar track and air temps, similar stint lengths.

If I was a Hamilton fan, I'd be very worried.

Come to think of it, maybe not. It's testing, not racing.

[motobaleno]

According to f1debrief's times, Bottas had an avg lap of 1:20.5 yesterday across 62 laps, Ham today 1:21.5 across 59 laps. Similar track and air temps, similar stint lengths.

If I was a Hamilton fan, I'd be very worried.

Come to think of it, maybe not. It's testing, not racing.

https://s9.postimg.org/cz1gvnbin/race_sim_mercedes.png

also it's arithmetic not magic: I repeat it: the computation for bottas (at least) is wrong

[rogazilla]

If TRH only used 1 engine this week. Given the lap count so far, it has completed how many race distance? I know some are installation laps and so on but just pure count?

About 6 race distances so far?

[Vanja #66]

According to f1debrief's times, Bottas had an avg lap of 1:20.5 yesterday across 62 laps, Ham today 1:21.5 across 59 laps. Similar track and air temps, similar stint lengths.

If I was a Hamilton fan, I'd be very worried.

Come to think of it, maybe not. It's testing, not racing.

https://s9.postimg.org/cz1gvnbin/race_sim_mercedes.png

Yes mate, you are correct. Those are the laps that give these average times.

[dren]

Ham's looks better just by looking at the two. He breaks into the 21s in his first stint, Bottas doesn't until his 2nd. Hamilton is in the 20s on the same lap, and in the 19s one lap later.

[1158]

If TRH only used 1 engine this week. Given the lap count so far, it has completed how many race distance? I know some are installation laps and so on but just pure count?

About 6 race distances so far?

Almost 7 and Hartley is in the middle of a race sim I think. Of course this does not take into account extra mileage for a race weekend (P1, P2, P3 and Q).

[Phil]

Yes mate, you are correct. Those are the laps that give these average times.

I just have to ask again, but what is the point of compressing 57-67 laps into a single average? It's much more interesting to analyze the rough stints with each other than to mask them all under one meaningless average. Same applies to comparing it to any other driver. If you want to do averages, do them by stint, but even then too, you will have a highly inaccurate picture because on some laps, the driver might have made a mistake, encountered traffic or some other reason. Important is the overall consistent performance that we can see over a couple of laps. Hence why some laps should be normalized for such errors.

Example: LH on lap 13: He just lost 1.6 second for no explainable reason. Maybe it was traffic? Maybe a mistake? If you do the rough average, this will be factored in, when from the stint itself, it's quite evidence that that one lap is an anomaly.

[FrukostScones]

regarding HAM s message to the team, the car seems to be invincible.

https://twitter.com/MercedesAMGF1/statu ... 08/photo/1

[GPR-A duplicate2]

According to f1debrief's times, Bottas had an avg lap of 1:20.5 yesterday across 62 laps, Ham today 1:21.5 across 59 laps. Similar track and air temps, similar stint lengths.

If I was a Hamilton fan, I'd be very worried.

Come to think of it, maybe not. It's testing, not racing.

https://s9.postimg.org/cz1gvnbin/race_sim_mercedes.png

Yes mate, you are correct. Those are the laps that give these average times.

I don't understand the business of averaging out a whole race length of times. What would one achieve? The way I look at it is, if someone did a fast time and then for couple of laps slowed down for whatever reason and then continued doing fast times once again for a number of laps, it means the stint was full of fast laps and you can pretty much discard the slow laps in between! It doesn't matter to who does that.

[Vanja #66]

I don't understand, I thought yesterday everyone agreed Merc is a second ahead because of an epic race sim by Bottas. Give some justice to Hamilton, guys.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Check the times here, by all means, please.

[f1316]

To everyone who has been doubting or arguing against reports that Ferrari are behind, here is what AMuS just posted on their ticker:

"Wir bekommen über unsere Social-Media-Kanäle gerade sehr viele Rückmeldungen von enttäuschten Ferrari-Fans, die unsere Analysen zum aktuellen Kräfteverhältnis nicht wahrhaben wollen. Dazu nur eine kurze Anmerkung: Wir hätten nichts lieber als eine spannende WM mit vielen Autos, die um die Spitze kämpfen. Gerne würden wir dieses Jahr über enge Duelle zwischen Vettel, Verstappen und Hamilton berichten. Aber wir wollen Ihnen ja auch keine falschen Hoffnungen machen sondern neutrale Analysen anbieten, die auf unseren Informationen und Beobachtungen an der Strecke basieren. Wir haben kein Interesse daran, Ferrari grundlos schlecht zu schreiben."

Translated:
We are receiving lots of feedback through our social-media channels from disappointed Ferrari fans who have been following our analyses and reports and don't want to believe them. Just to clarify: There's nothing we would rather have than an exciting season ahead with many cars fighting at the front. We would love to report over competitive duels between Vettel, Verstappen and Hamilton. But we also don't want encourage false hope, but much rather offer neutral analysis that are based on our information and observations from the track. We are not interested in writting off Ferrari without reason.

Note by me:
One has to consider that all reports are only reporting on what is happening at Barcelona during Winter testing and what the teams are showing. No one is saying there is no room for improvement or that at Melbourne (which will be a completely different track) things will look the same. As I said previously, Barcelona already suited Mercedes well last year. That they may indeed remain strong therefore is not a huge surprise. However the reports that Ferrari may again have a higher fuel usage may be worrying given Mercedes already supposedly had an advantage last year in this area. Also, Renault are focusing on engine stability and reliability. Reports are that they are still holding back a little of the engines potential. This could make RedBull stronger than they already appear to be.

Another thing I've been wondering, is whether teams (obviously excluding McLaren!) are running/trying to run the same PU throughout testing to simulate the 7 GP distance they'll need to run. What difference might that be making to relative ability to push the PU at certain stages in lifecycle?

Just another caveat to think about.

[motobaleno]

hey dude!
you speak around about CFD and rocket science things like many little neweys...
is it possible that noone of you recognize that bottase average laptimes is macroscopically wrong?

[Jolle]

To everyone who has been doubting or arguing against reports that Ferrari are behind, here is what AMuS just posted on their ticker:

"Wir bekommen über unsere Social-Media-Kanäle gerade sehr viele Rückmeldungen von enttäuschten Ferrari-Fans, die unsere Analysen zum aktuellen Kräfteverhältnis nicht wahrhaben wollen. Dazu nur eine kurze Anmerkung: Wir hätten nichts lieber als eine spannende WM mit vielen Autos, die um die Spitze kämpfen. Gerne würden wir dieses Jahr über enge Duelle zwischen Vettel, Verstappen und Hamilton berichten. Aber wir wollen Ihnen ja auch keine falschen Hoffnungen machen sondern neutrale Analysen anbieten, die auf unseren Informationen und Beobachtungen an der Strecke basieren. Wir haben kein Interesse daran, Ferrari grundlos schlecht zu schreiben."

Translated:
We are receiving lots of feedback through our social-media channels from disappointed Ferrari fans who have been following our analyses and reports and don't want to believe them. Just to clarify: There's nothing we would rather have than an exciting season ahead with many cars fighting at the front. We would love to report over competitive duels between Vettel, Verstappen and Hamilton. But we also don't want encourage false hope, but much rather offer neutral analysis that are based on our information and observations from the track. We are not interested in writting off Ferrari without reason.

Note by me:
One has to consider that all reports are only reporting on what is happening at Barcelona during Winter testing and what the teams are showing. No one is saying there is no room for improvement or that at Melbourne (which will be a completely different track) things will look the same. As I said previously, Barcelona already suited Mercedes well last year. That they may indeed remain strong therefore is not a huge surprise. However the reports that Ferrari may again have a higher fuel usage may be worrying given Mercedes already supposedly had an advantage last year in this area. Also, Renault are focusing on engine stability and reliability. Reports are that they are still holding back a little of the engines potential. This could make RedBull stronger than they already appear to be.

Another thing I've been wondering, is whether teams (obviously excluding McLaren!) are running/trying to run the same PU throughout testing to simulate the 7 GP distance they'll need to run. What difference might that be making to relative ability to push the PU at certain stages in lifecycle?

Just another caveat to think about.

I did read that Mercedes (and their clients i suppose) used one PU trough all of testing last year. They did open it up after the first week and gave it a big service.

[JPBD1990]

Does anyone have Raikkonen’s first stint times? I’m told he’s on a race sim and has just changed from SS to M tyres just as Seb did in his first stint yesterday

[Phlumbert]

AMuS:
Ferrari calls Räikkönen after ten laps on the supersoft for the first tire change: Starter round (2:03 min.) - 1: 23.5 - 1: 23.7 - 1: 24.7 - 1: 23.7 - 1: 24.1 - 1: 23.7 - 1: 24.2 - 1: 24.9 - Inlap (1: 25.4).