2018 Chinese Grand Prix - Shanghai, April 13-15

[ferkan]

On Sky, Crofty did say Vettel only did three laps on USofts. The others did longer, but I don't know how much (feel like I read somewhere around 8 laps, but can't recall where).

I was watching the live timing as they were out on track, I sat here and watched/wrote down as Vettel posted

38.6
38.8
39.3
40.2
40.4
40.3

all on US Tyre, so I have no idea why Crofty said that.

At the same time I was recording Ham & Max

Ham
US
38.8
38.9
38.7
39.0
39.2
39.2
39.3
43.2
box

Max
US
39.0
39.2
39.3
39.4
39.1
38.8
not sure if he continued or box.

Wow, terrible pace from Seb then. I wonder what the contributing factors are... high deg? Or simulating fuel saving? Or just poor setup? Traffic?

He had Hulk then Ocon for few laps as far as I remember (and he did 2 hot laps on his US).

[NathanOlder]

I think maybe they were just testing where the "cliff" was with the tyres ? ALthough on the live timing The last 3 laps Vettel did, Hamilton did 39.2, 39.2 and 39.3 on the same tyre and with the same number of laps on them, so Im not sure what happened to Vettels pace

[Vettel165]

I think maybe they were just testing where the "cliff" was with the tyres ? ALthough on the live timing The last 3 laps Vettel did, Hamilton did 39.2, 39.2 and 39.3 on the same tyre and with the same number of laps on them, so Im not sure what happened to Vettels pace

Seb had a lot of traffic.

[LM10]

I highly doubt that degradation was the reason Vettel's times dropped almost 2 seconds within 4 laps.

[ripper]

This is what I found on an italian live commentary 09.06 – Tempi molto costanti per tutti i big della classifica. Hamilton prosegue sul piede dell’1:39 basso, mentre Vettel – disturbato dal traffico – è salito sull’1:40.4

They said that VET had traffic problems

[matt_b]

Looking at the quali sims.
Mercedes Best sectors: 24.331 27.470 41.415 1:33.216
Ferrari Best sectors: 24.223 27.562 41.540 1:33.325

Good to see the gap close in FP2 this weekend, although we never know how much they're turning their engines down or how much time they gain through setup overnight and after FP3.

[Hammerfist]

Looking at the quali sims.
Mercedes Best sectors: 24.331 27.470 41.415 1:33.216
Ferrari Best sectors: 24.223 27.562 41.540 1:33.325

Good to see the gap close in FP2 this weekend, although we never know how much they're turning their engines down or how much time they gain through setup overnight and after FP3.

I don't think it is as close as it looks. Hamilton didn't have a clean lap, and he did his time quite earlier in the session. When you account for the track evolution he is quite a bit quicker than anybody else.

[ferkan]

Looking at the quali sims.
Mercedes Best sectors: 24.331 27.470 41.415 1:33.216
Ferrari Best sectors: 24.223 27.562 41.540 1:33.325

Good to see the gap close in FP2 this weekend, although we never know how much they're turning their engines down or how much time they gain through setup overnight and after FP3.

I don't think it is as close as it looks. Hamilton didn't have a clean lap, and he did his time quite earlier in the session. When you account for the track evolution he is quite a bit quicker than anybody else.

He did his lap 5min before Seb, if that. Although I agree, he left some time on table with that little drift (probably ~2 tenths).

[Hammerfist]

Looking at the quali sims.
Mercedes Best sectors: 24.331 27.470 41.415 1:33.216
Ferrari Best sectors: 24.223 27.562 41.540 1:33.325

Good to see the gap close in FP2 this weekend, although we never know how much they're turning their engines down or how much time they gain through setup overnight and after FP3.

I don't think it is as close as it looks. Hamilton didn't have a clean lap, and he did his time quite earlier in the session. When you account for the track evolution he is quite a bit quicker than anybody else.

He did his lap 5min before Seb, if that. Although I agree, he left some time on table with that little drift (probably ~2 tenths).

It was actually 8 mn, and that is a lot of time considering how many cars were on track rubbering in the track.
Hamilton's closest competition is his teammate at this point.

[Brenton]

I'm expecting Hamilton to bounce back and take pole and victory.

The only thing that goes Mercedes way in China is the cooler temperatures because Mercedes can turn on the tyres faster than other teams, they might choose to run the mediums again in the race in the cold conditions.

Ferrari it seems that have the upper hand in the 2 straights in China, but might struggle in the twisty section.

So in essence there are reasons to feel upbeat about Hamilton this week, but I would start praying they bring updates when the European Season starts since they are lacking behind Ferrari in fast circuits where top speed is important.

Needless to say that if Hamilton fails to convert this race into a win or worse to end up behind Vettel... then his championship chances are dropping.

Last but not least let us no forget that Hamiltons last DNF was in 2 October 2016 at Sepang and as time and each race passes the DNF monster will start hunting you down, even so, Hamilton has been extremely lucky in 2017 to have no mechanical, tyre failures or collisions... believe me his luck will eventually run out. ( i am looking at you MAX )

I swear I'd be a Hamilton fan if not for how incredibly lucky he is, it frustrates me. Last week another example... Not only do most of his competition that qualified in front of him dnf, his tire somehow was fine from rubbing against a rivals tire that went flat. Vettel's behavior at Mexico and Baku disgusted me but my heart cheers him on because I don't want to see Mercedes dominate any more. I'm dumb, I know.

But regarding his championship chances. The bookies are giving him a large majority odds for pole and victory, and is dominant favorite for the WDC. Mercedes are almost certainly getting the WCC according to the books. We may all be overly optimistic about this weekend being a close race.

[gandharva]

FP2 comparison 1. stint longrun:

Max (10 laps):
1:38.811
1:38.882
1:39.057
1:39.199
1:39.338
1:39.424
1:39.192
1:38.837
1:39.099
1:39.113
------------------
Avg: 1:39.095

Lewis (8 laps):
1:40.072
1:38.865
1:38.960
1:38.759
1:39.012
1:39.258
1:39.289
1:39.384
------------------
Avg: 1:39.200

Daniel (7 laps):
1:39.268
1:38.826
1:39.210
1:39.128
1:41.276 (traffic)
1:39.293
1:39.217
------------------
Avg: 1:39.460

Seb (6 laps):
1:38.651
1:38.813
1:39.317
1:40.259
1:40.410
1:40.348
------------------
Avg: 1:39.633

Valtteri (7 laps):
1:38.702
1:39.422
1:39.325
1:49.871 (traffic)
1:39.167
1:39.398
1:39.256
------------------
Avg: 1:40.734

Kimi did only 3 laps:
1:38.696
1:38.769
1:39.321

[bosyber]

I was watching the live timing as they were out on track, I sat here and watched/wrote down as Vettel posted

38.6
38.8
39.3
40.2
40.4
40.3

all on US Tyre, so I have no idea why Crofty said that.

At the same time I was recording Ham & Max

Ham
US
38.8
38.9
38.7
39.0
39.2
39.2
39.3
43.2
box

Max
US
39.0
39.2
39.3
39.4
39.1
38.8
not sure if he continued or box.

Wow, terrible pace from Seb then. I wonder what the contributing factors are... high deg? Or simulating fuel saving? Or just poor setup? Traffic?

He had Hulk then Ocon for few laps as far as I remember (and he did 2 hot laps on his US).

I guess it was Mark Hughes who gave the three laps for Vettel to Sky (he's their regular for times analysis) - in his Motorsport Magazine article he names the number, explaining that's excluding the laps behind Hulk, as they weren't representative; I guess that's the last three, slow, laps then?
It's an interesting read. He mainly concludes VS was great on US (a 10 lap stint, apparently!), but that a soft-medium (2 stints?) strategy might be the one to be on during the race.

[f1316]

[media]https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/stat ... 1175318529[/media]

[media]https://twitter.com/andrewbensonf1/stat ... 3758451713[/media]

[f1316]

Indeed.

One has to wonder if it's because of there being less and less human input and instead it's just relying on 'systems'.

I think it's due to the regulation changes regarding the retention system, and the teams underestimating the impact that this has.

Maybe but removing the human element can't help.

Computer systems are very binary and sensors can fail. The human grey matter can spot something screwey that happens unexpectedly outside the norm where as unless it's programmed to see it a computer system wouldn't see the issue at all.

I just think we need to be careful how much 'human oversight' we remove.

You say that but how often did we see the lollipop man raising it too early? I seem to remember them bringing it back down on top of someone’s helmet once.

My point being that humans can also make mistakes.

The real solution - as it is with tyres as well - is refuelling, as it gives much more margin for the tyres; people will argue it adds even more safety issues but I don’t agree - there are plenty of additional things that could be done to ensure safe fuel stops.

[NathanOlder]

I think maybe they were just testing where the "cliff" was with the tyres ? ALthough on the live timing The last 3 laps Vettel did, Hamilton did 39.2, 39.2 and 39.3 on the same tyre and with the same number of laps on them, so Im not sure what happened to Vettels pace

Seb had a lot of traffic.

Ah ok cheers.