Xero wrote: ↑21 Apr 2018, 21:54
I agree. It seems people who pointed out last season that McLaren would be behind Red Bull due to their knowledge and experience with the Renault package, are the same people calling McLaren out for now being behind Red Bull.
It will be a season long journey to get the integration to a satisfactory level, and will likely require input towards the MCL34 before they are completely on a level with Red Bull. That's not to say it's impossible to close the gap and fight with them on a regular basis this season. I'm sure the upgrade in Spain will be a good step forward, let's just focus on clearing the midfield pack first, there could be a cheeky podium up for grabs in that position alone.
Exactly! People are writing McLaren off too soon just based on recent race results and the difference to Red Bull at the end of the race. They are clearly misjudging how race pace works.
Race pace is very dependent on traffic and the car in front. Based on the Chinese Grand Prix, Fernando Alonso was only 0.8 seconds off the front runners, but because he was stuck behind the two Haas's, his lap times were significantly compromised, during the period that he was behind the Haas cars, he was lapping 1.2 to 1.5 seconds slower than front runners. But as soon as he had free air, he was only 0.8 seconds slower.
Just based on this, what people are failing to understand is, McLaren don't have to match Ferrari, Red Bull, and Mercedes in terms of pace to take the fight to them. If they can start qualifying P7 or P8, all they have to do is be within 0.4 seconds (this will vary from track to track, because of track distance and overall layout) on a track like China of them in race pace. Then, if they can get a few positions on the start, they will be in the mix with the top 3. However, if they don't get any positions on the start then they will end P7 and P8.
For example if we had a race in China again, and McLaren cut down the race pace difference to 0.4 seconds a lap and end up in front of say a Red Bull at the start, then even though the Red Bull is 0.4 seconds a lap quicker on paper, that won't translate into their lap time in the race, because of the dirty air and increased tyre wear they have because of being behind a slower car. Hence, if all works to plan, McLaren will be able to keep track position and end up ahead of the Red Bull. (Obviously this is considering they solve their drag issue, otherwise they will be sitting ducks on the straights and will lose the position very easily).
However, if the Red Bull is in front, then Red Bull will be able to lap 0.4 seconds a lap quicker and build the gap to the McLaren. This is what you see happening right now. Renault also seem to be 0.8 seconds off the pace (difficult to say if McLaren or Renault have the better race pace, they had different race strategies in Bahrain and China) from the front runners as well, but 0.8 seconds gap is too much. So even though they are qualifying P7 and can maybe gain a few positions on the start, they will quickly lose the position to the much faster top 3 cars. Hence the gap between the front 3 runners and the midfield pack each and every race. Currently, none of the midfield teams have a quick enough car to maintain position against a Merc, Ferrari or Red Bull in the race.
This is much like how Red Bull did in the first half of last season. They were getting podiums every now and then when they could get ahead of the Ferrari and Merc at the start, but struggled massively and couldn't keep up with them when they didn't get them at the start.
This is the most basic description I can give. Let's not forget Fernando Alonso took a Ferrari that was 0.5 seconds slower than Red Bull and McLaren in 2012 and took the championship fight to the last race. And the reason he was able to do that was because of what I just mentioned. He didn't qualify the highest in the Ferrari, but because of his ability at the race starts and strategy he was able to place his car in front of his rivals and neglect that race pace difference.
So all McLaren have to do is close the race pace gap to let's say 0.4 seconds (this will vary from track to track, because of track distance and overall layout) on a track like China (currently difference is 0.8 seconds at China, varies from track to track obviously) and qualify higher. If they do solve the car's fundamental drag issue and aero inefficiency, they can qualify higher and look to maybe take few top 6 finishes by mid-season. Obviously race wins and podiums are likely out of the question on a normal day if Ferrari, Merc and Red Bull all finish, but it would be possible for them to at least finish ahead of possibly 1 or 2 of those 6 cars, much like how Red Bull were doing last season.
I know I'm stating the obvious, but sometimes people forget even the obvious, so it's important to remind them.