2018 Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Baku, April 27-29

[JasonF1]

Something to keep in mind when watching FP3. I just looked at the FP3 and qualifying top times for the previous 5 races, typing up a table of subjective rankings. For the top 6 teams, there was a very strong correlation between FP3 and qualifying ranking on a subjective judge of performance. (after considering factors like for example Bottas crashing out of Q3 at Australia)

4 of 5 races had the same ranking between Mercedes and Ferrari. The top 3 were the same in 3 of 5 races! Only difference in the other two were Mercedes either moving ahead of Red Bull (Bahrain) or they moved ahead of both RB and Ferrari (Australia).

The teams ranked 4th-6th were very similar as well, when looking at the averages of both drivers performances. The only major outlier was Haas in Australia, leaping far ahead from practice to qualifying... and McLaren dropping from #4 to #7 at Abu Dhabi.

So even without looking at times in detail, analyzing long run performances like some of you graciously do here, the simple results table is quite telling of what will happen in Q3.

I have noticed a pattern between FP3 and Quali as well, but restricted my observation to Mercedes vs Ferrari. What I have noticed is that if Mercedes is within 0.5s of Ferrari in FP3, they may actually be ahead in quali. If Mercedes is more than 0.5s behind, Ferrari will get pole.

[search]

It was the same in China in FP2, RBR looked the fastest, with Ferrari, Mercedes saving their engine a lot more, and were running just to a certain delta time. In race pace in China the Ferrari was the fastest car on the same tyres, slightly ahead of Mercedes, then RBR. Sorry I forgot RBR started on US tyres there, but still with the fastest rubber they couldnt keep up with Bottas, Vettel in first stint. I know this track is different, but I still see Mercedes, Ferrari on the first two rows with their superior engine power in Q3 (no particular order). Will see.

Red Bull was something like half a second ahead yesterday though, both over one lap (best sectors) and in the long runs. I think they'll be in the mix, also today.

[johnny vee]

With the current situation in F1, where two drivers are neck and neck for a title race and three teams are almost identical in car performance... and the midfield is extremely competitive as well... there's rarely been a better time to be an F1 fan IMO! I say this as someone who grew up loving the V10s. There's a lot to hate about current F1 but overall it's great. We have extensive TV and internet coverage that's miles better than in the past. Even the driver lineup... the back of the grid talent IMO is miles ahead of what F1 was for most of its history. There's so much to love. So I recommend this weekend, appreciating what we watch.

I agree with you Brenton.
Very good post.

[Restomaniac]

Thanks, mate, but he knows what I meant

Oh I did. The SS is THE tyre Ferrari (and the rest) and their great simulations brought too many sets of US

I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic, but Mercedes redbull and Ferrari have (I think) identical tyre allocations left after FP2 - so, as I suggested earlier in the thread, people freaking out about tyre allocations are wasting their energy. Ferrari simply used their extra soft on Kimi’s car and the extra SS of vettels car - now they have one of each and 7 US each - the same as merc.

If you were being sarcastic then I apologise.

Why do you think I said (and the rest)?

Top and bottom of it is that today teams are just going to burn up their US tyres in FP3 that they didn't need. It's not the tyre to be on but that is all they have left.

The SS is THE tyre around here because of the tiny Delta and how very quickly the US goes off but teams now cannot keep testing on the SS unless they want to have no new sets for Qualy/the race. Remember the poster I replied to told me I didn't know what I was on about when I rightly said going for so many sets of US was as now is becoming clear an obvious wrong blind guess.

Look at it this way.
Everyone else has burned through the extra sets of the SS they had over Ferrari. Why do you think that is?
Then answer would they keep testing on the SS if they had more?
Now would Ferrari have liked more testing on the better tyre?
Answer those questions and you see the point.

[Vanja #66]

During the race weekend, every track comes the most towards the softest tyres available. All tyres benefit from track rubbering in, the softest tyres the most. It's a trend seen for a time and has only increased with wider tyres from last year. There is a big delta between super soft and ultras, so how can you claim super softs are the way to go? For China, Pirelli predicted 2 stops and loads of teams would have had only one stop if there wasn't a Safety Car. Now Pirelli predicts one stop is possible, so teams will want to learn about and extend ultra's life as much as possible, which is what they'll do in P3. And this is to give themselves more room for different strategies, not to make the one stop work (because it will).

So no, mate, teams haven't got it wrong, it's a street circuit and it's even smoother than last year. They know what they are doing.

[JPBD1990]

Oh I did. The SS is THE tyre Ferrari (and the rest) and their great simulations brought too many sets of US

I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic, but Mercedes redbull and Ferrari have (I think) identical tyre allocations left after FP2 - so, as I suggested earlier in the thread, people freaking out about tyre allocations are wasting their energy. Ferrari simply used their extra soft on Kimi’s car and the extra SS of vettels car - now they have one of each and 7 US each - the same as merc.

If you were being sarcastic then I apologise.

Why do you think I said (and the rest)?

Top and bottom of it is that today teams are just going to burn up their US tyres in FP3 that they didn't need. It's not the tyre to be on but that is all they have left.

The SS is THE tyre around here because of the tiny Delta and how very quickly the US goes off but teams now cannot keep testing on the SS unless they want to have no new sets for Qualy/the race. Remember the poster I replied to told me I didn't know what I was on about when I rightly said going for so many sets of US was as now is becoming clear an obvious wrong blind guess.

Look at it this way.
Everyone else has burned through the extra sets of the SS they had over Ferrari. Why do you think that is?
Then answer would they keep testing on the SS if they had more?
Now would Ferrari have liked more testing on the better tyre?
Answer those questions and you see the point.

The other teams used the additional alternative tyres they had over Ferrari to end up in the exact same situation. If their testing presented what you are - that the SS is THE tyre to be on, then surely they would have proceeded using additional ultras or softs to preserve their advantage. They did not. I think that in itself tells the truer story. Sure, the SS may be the best tyre here - but you’re likely only going to need it for one stint. So whether you start on it, or move to it in the second stint, you still only require one for the race.

Hypothetically you can go:

US, US, SS
US, SS, US
SS, US, US
SS, S

What you’re suggesting is that the better strategy would be to do at least 2 stints on the SS - which I think is something that isn’t really on the cards in terms of fastest possible strategy options for the race.

I agree that it’d be useful to have more sets to test on in FP3 - but ultimately that will be to do 1-2 quali sims on the US, with a long run at the end also on US to simulate the beginning of the race.

So again.... I’m not disagreeing that the SS appears the best tyre here. However, the way it’s able to be used strategically still limits the requirement to have additional sets.

One of each of the S and SS is appropriate for this point in the weekend, and will clearly be used either in a 1 or 2 stop race - depending on the tyre they use in Q2.

[Restomaniac]

I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic, but Mercedes redbull and Ferrari have (I think) identical tyre allocations left after FP2 - so, as I suggested earlier in the thread, people freaking out about tyre allocations are wasting their energy. Ferrari simply used their extra soft on Kimi’s car and the extra SS of vettels car - now they have one of each and 7 US each - the same as merc.

If you were being sarcastic then I apologise.

Why do you think I said (and the rest)?

Top and bottom of it is that today teams are just going to burn up their US tyres in FP3 that they didn't need. It's not the tyre to be on but that is all they have left.

The SS is THE tyre around here because of the tiny Delta and how very quickly the US goes off but teams now cannot keep testing on the SS unless they want to have no new sets for Qualy/the race. Remember the poster I replied to told me I didn't know what I was on about when I rightly said going for so many sets of US was as now is becoming clear an obvious wrong blind guess.

Look at it this way.
Everyone else has burned through the extra sets of the SS they had over Ferrari. Why do you think that is?
Then answer would they keep testing on the SS if they had more?
Now would Ferrari have liked more testing on the better tyre?
Answer those questions and you see the point.

The other teams used the additional alternative tyres they had over Ferrari to end up in the exact same situation. If their testing presented what you are - that the SS is THE tyre to be on, then surely they would have proceeded using additional ultras or softs to preserve their advantage. They did not. I think that in itself tells the truer story. Sure, the SS may be the best tyre here - but you’re likely only going to need it for one stint. So whether you start on it, or move to it in the second stint, you still only require one for the race.

Hypothetically you can go:

US, US, SS
US, SS, US
SS, US, US
SS, S

What you’re suggesting is that the better strategy would be to do at least 2 stints on the SS - which I think is something that isn’t really on the cards in terms of fastest possible strategy options for the race.

I agree that it’d be useful to have more sets to test on in FP3 - but ultimately that will be to do 1-2 quali sims on the US, with a long run at the end also on US to simulate the beginning of the race.

So again.... I’m not disagreeing that the SS appears the best tyre here. However, the way it’s able to be used strategically still limits the requirement to have additional sets.

One of each of the S and SS is appropriate for this point in the weekend, and will clearly be used either in a 1 or 2 stop race - depending on the tyre they use in Q2.

No I'm not. Let's us be honest any team that uses the US twice wants their heads read as the Delta to laps length isn't worth it.
I'm suggesting that teams would like to do more and have done more testing on the SS. Ferrari would certainly like too I have no doubt. But now they are all stuck rolling around on a tyre that they will all probably bin on lap 10 if they use them at all. Brilliant.

The top 3 teams have 7 sets of which they realistically need 3/4 for Qualy. You said it yourself the teams would like another set of SS for FP3 and IMHO having 3/4 sets of US for FP3 is total overkill. Therefore they DID make a mistake of the sheer amount of US that they brought.

They clearly expected a bigger Delta between the US and the SS when they picked their tyres. However when the were picked them they had no data due to the tyres being a new set of compounds and as such brought too many US's compared to the other compounds. That was and is my original point.

[JPBD1990]

Yep, I don’t disagree. I think our points were slightly different.

I agree the SS appears the most useable tyre here for the most part. I’m sure teams would have liked to have more available.

I guess my point was that considering all teams have the same allocation at this stage (except Renault), for better or worse - it’s the same for everyone. So if no one has a competitive advantage over the others, even if the tyre isn’t the best, it’s the same for everyone so doesn’t really make any difference.

[johnny vee]

I am so excited for the race tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if Fer and Merc will show us more pace now in FP3.
And qualy will be exciting until the end of the last lap.
The wind is making it very tricky for finding braking spot for turn 1 it seems...

[Restomaniac]

Yep, I don’t disagree. I think our points were slightly different.

I agree the SS appears the most useable tyre here for the most part. I’m sure teams would have liked to have more available.

I guess my point was that considering all teams have the same allocation at this stage (except Renault), for better or worse - it’s the same for everyone. So if no one has a competitive advantage over the others, even if the tyre isn’t the best, it’s the same for everyone so doesn’t really make any difference.

I agree but that wasn't the point I was making. Teams have misjudged how many US they needed and the reason is because it was a blind guess. Something the user I was replying to stated wasn't the case.

[Restomaniac]

Mercedes have screwed their car up it and it seems Ferrari have walked into a great car with a long wheelbase.

[Restomaniac]

Here it is in front of our eyes. Teams can't do Qualy tests on the SS because they have US's they don't need instead.

[matt_b]

Mercedes have screwed their car up it seems. It's seems Ferrari have walked into a great car with a long wheelbase.

If you cant get those tyres working you lose bucket loads of time on a circuit like this. They're in need of the Spanish test to try some solutions though.

[iotar__]

Mercedes have screwed their car up it seems. It's seems Ferrari have walked into a great car with a long wheelbase.

If you cant get those tyres working you lose bucket loads of time on a circuit like this. They're in need of the Spanish test to try some solutions though.

Excuses for Hamilton notwithstanding (Merc could have won 3 races): whaaaat? Random tyre issues decide the order? Drivers are not pushing 100% but working to get tyres into operating window? Quickest cars are not the quickest (Mercedes I guess )? Is this 2012 ?

Red Bull will strongly protest this current sad state of F1 and demand changes. Just like they demanded fixing overtaking and track changes in Australia because Verstappen spun. They didn't care about overtaking after Barcelona '16 ofc.

[MtthsMlw]

Verstappen gaining almost half a second on Vettel in Sector 3. Weird.