2018 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 11-13

[F1Krof]

If there are no Safety-Car shenanigans a relatively easy 1-2 for Ferrari. Red Bull & Merc close to each other for 3-4.

[Phil]

I have to say, I did predict Mercedes ahead originally, but I think my (humble) speculation needs further clarification:

Last year, it was extremely close between Mercedes and Ferrari during qualifying. Going by testing this year, I assume Mercedes will be (better) prepared to what awaits them tire wise. What may play against them (or straight into their hands) is that temperatures are expected to be on the low side this weekend. There's even talk about some chance for showers on Saturday. Give the layout of the track though, I think the Mercedes will work better and that with all the extensive data they have from testing, that the overall more consistent track layout will benefit them.

I believe that Mercedes still has possibly the fastest car when it works right. I believe that the 3 last races did not accurately reflect the potential of their car, but that the car was severely tire limited, more so during QF than the race. If my hunch is anything but right, I think Catalunya will work in their favor. Still, given how close it was last year, I still think that Ferrari is going to be extremely close.

Given that many believe that Ferrari may have the edge on PU performance for short stints (aka QF), I think Ferrari might even edge them again in qualifying. This may or may not depend on if the recent FIA clampdown on oil burning has an effect or not. Either way, I think in the race, Mercedes may be the quickest package as perhaps Ferrari will have to save more fuel [than Mercedes].

These are just my random thoughts, based on the first 4 races of this season, testing etc. If Mercedes again fail to hit the tire temperatures, this weekend could turn into another 'weak' performance quickly though.

[MtthsMlw]

If there are no Safety-Car shenanigans a relatively easy 1-2 for Ferrari. Red Bull & Merc close to each other for 3-4.

If Merc keeps having problems with their tires maybe but I don't think they will (at least in Spain). This race will be very interesting for the rest of the Championship. If Merc gets their tires working perfectly and are still slower than Ferrari we will know who has the best chances of winning the Championship.

[Glyn]

If there are no Safety-Car shenanigans a relatively easy 1-2 for Ferrari. Red Bull & Merc close to each other for 3-4.

If Merc keeps having problems with their tires maybe but I don't think they will (at least in Spain). This race will be very interesting for the rest of the Championship. If Merc gets their tires working perfectly and are still slower than Ferrari we will know who has the best chances of winning the Championship.

People are forgetting the driver still has an impact on performance and strategy does as well.

We never really hear about how the drivers make or break a race.

The laptimes are close enough where this discussion should be happening.

[MtthsMlw]

Kubica will drive in FP1

[Vasconia]

Does Red Bull have any chance of pole position?

I doubt it, their real chance will arrive in Monaco.

[Vasconia]

Kubica will drive in FP1

A good reason to watch it, sadly I have to work.

[TheFluffy]

Does anyone know if the DRS activation point would be the same as last year (which was already extended by 50m I think)? Because this race is historically not that great for overtaking.

[LM10]

I believe that Mercedes still has possibly the fastest car when it works right.

The question is when/how often does and will it work?
It's quite interesting that Mercedes didn't manage to solve the tyre problem in a period of more than 1 year (including whole winter). On the other hand I don't know how much of a tyre problem they have in race. I tend to say much less than in Q.

[Phil]

I believe that Mercedes still has possibly the fastest car when it works right.

The question is when/how often does and will it work?
It's quite interesting that Mercedes didn't manage to solve the tyre problem in a period of more than 1 year (including whole winter). On the other hand I don't know how much of a tyre problem they have in race. I tend to say much less than in Q.

The tires have changed from last year to this. I'm quite positive that had Pirelli not made any adjustments to the compounds, then Mercedes overall performance would be more consistent. The problem is quite simple: For 2017, not many knew what to expect from these new cars with more downforce and wider tires. So Pirelli went way conservative. As a result, at many races last year, one-stop was easily possible. This year and thanks to the data gathered last year, Pirelli was able to go more aggressive meaning softer and more delicate tires.

Anyway, the tires are the same for everyone, so it is what it is (and I am by no means blaming Pirelli or anything). And you do race a good question: How often will Mercedes get it right? That is unfortunately a very tricky question to answer. In my humble estimate, probably not that many times. Having said that, I do think Ferrari are the big favorites this year for this sole reason. But reliability will also be very tricky and it is still yet to be seen how well the Ferrari PU and the Mercedes PU will hold up over the 7 race weekends they need to endure.

[Edax]

Does Red Bull have any chance of pole position?

Any chance of rain?:)

[zgred]

...
It only further proves Claire's total incompetence and living on an entire different planet, really.
...
So what is there to happen to claire? well, to be really honest - Kaltenborn didn't want to go with what longbow wanted, and got sacked. Now, Sauber is Alfa Romeo Sauber and are in a much better position. So Claire might actually and suddenly decide to 'step aside' to focus on 'her family' (yeah right) after Stroll invests some more with Paddy lowe, and then not much later Williams becomes Mercedes' B-team and suddenly is in better shape.

Anyway.
Again, i hope for a good Alonso and Sainz result. a win even.

Thanks Manoah2u, sad but good and well-written posts. Good luck to Spaniards at their event

[LM10]

I believe that Mercedes still has possibly the fastest car when it works right.

The question is when/how often does and will it work?
It's quite interesting that Mercedes didn't manage to solve the tyre problem in a period of more than 1 year (including whole winter). On the other hand I don't know how much of a tyre problem they have in race. I tend to say much less than in Q.

The tires have changed from last year to this. I'm quite positive that had Pirelli not made any adjustments to the compounds, then Mercedes overall performance would be more consistent. The problem is quite simple: For 2017, not many knew what to expect from these new cars with more downforce and wider tires. So Pirelli went way conservative. As a result, at many races last year, one-stop was easily possible. This year and thanks to the data gathered last year, Pirelli was able to go more aggressive meaning softer and more delicate tires.

Anyway, the tires are the same for everyone, so it is what it is (and I am by no means blaming Pirelli or anything). And you do race a good question: How often will Mercedes get it right? That is unfortunately a very tricky question to answer. In my humble estimate, probably not that many times. Having said that, I do think Ferrari are the big favorites this year for this sole reason. But reliability will also be very tricky and it is still yet to be seen how well the Ferrari PU and the Mercedes PU will hold up over the 7 race weekends they need to endure.

Good points. Let's see what will happen in Spain. Until now all 3 top teams haven't done significant changes. Updates and the performance respond of the cars will be a key point to keep an eye on.

Looking at oncoming updates is even more interesting when we consider Mercedes engineers tell that the W09 is, no matter if in tyre working range or not, slower than Ferrari.

[siskue2005]

Looking at oncoming updates is even more interesting when we consider Mercedes engineers tell that the W09 is, no matter if in tyre working range or not, slower than Ferrari.

But where did anyone say such a thing?
I am sorry if I have mistaken the grammer tense

[itwasntme]

Looking at oncoming updates is even more interesting when we consider Mercedes engineers tell that the W09 is, no matter if in tyre working range or not, slower than Ferrari.

But where did anyone say such a thing?
I am sorry if I have mistaken the grammer tense

In this article:

https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... -mercedes/