Fulcrum wrote: ↑26 May 2018, 16:59
If he does, his first priority will be to build a pitstop advantage over Raikkonen, taking the 2nd Ferrari out of range of strategic interference. From that point Red Bull will simply cover off whoever happens to be behind him. Probably going to be very boring if this transpires.
The thing is, a pitstop takes around 24s around Monaco. That's a long stop and I'm not sure the Hyper-Softs can be run long enough to drive out that kind of gap even in the quickest car this year.
Raikkonen and Bottas might be key-players into tomorrows place, as they are both the 2nd drivers behind their respective team-mates starting from position 4th and 5th respectively. I don't think Mercedes is cunning enough to play the strategic game (and use the 2nd driver as a pawn) and will simply race and let the chips fall where they fall. Ferrari on the other hand, they'll go a far way to snitch that win with Vettels car IMO.
Going from Hyper-Softs to Ultra-softs might prove difficult tomorrow. They'll need to do that, to keep a one-stop-strategy alive, but this will mean that they'll probably be going onto a harder tire that will not reach its optimum grip level until perhaps a lap or two. So the undercut will not work.
From RedBulls perspective:
If Ricciardo stops first, he'll probably fall behind both Kimi and Bottas. This means that either team could use their driver as a blockade to help their other driver ahead to pull out a gap and gain track position over the leader.
Alternative is to run as long possible until the cars directly behind him start to pit. Then you can react to those pitstops and mirror strategy if need be.
From Ferrari's (Vettels) perspective:
Pitting first will be a problem, as you'll be going onto slower tires so pitting early won't help. So from Ferrari's perspective I'd try to go as long as possible, further beyond RedBull. Then use your second driver to block (assuming he'll be ahead of the RedBull). The thing is though, I assume RedBull's wear will be just as good if not better than the other cars, so he'll probably be happy to stay out too for as long as he must.
What I'm wondering is, if there are some teams that will simply dedicate themselves to a 2-stop race. I.e. Vettel stops before Dan, but pits for another set of Hypers (instead of Ultras). This means his outlap will be fast, possible fast enough to pull of an undercut if he is close enough. RedBull will come in, and if they know they have just lost track position, will probably stay out long and then go for the one-stop on ultras. If they can't make the one-stop work however, the HS-HS-US might yield better when the 2nd stop arrives...
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