General Honda F1 Topic

[j.yank]

The interest of Renault to Vandoorn, because loosing Saintz, and the reluctance of Renault to give the latest specification of their engine in Canada to Red Bull maybe speaks that the deal between Red Bull and Honda is already done or very close.

[mclaren111]

The deadline Renault gave RB was middle May and then moved it to end of May.

That's come and gone so I think Renault will not supply RB.

[GhostF1]

The deadline Renault gave RB was middle May and then moved it to end of May.

That's come and gone so I think Renault will not supply RB.

Maybe a joint announcment at the Austrian GP at the Red Bull Ring?

[McHonda]

They're still waiting to see the upgrades from both EM's on track, that's why they ignored Renault's deadline. Nothing will be decided until then.

After that it will move quick enough.

[Talisman]

I doubt that’s the real issue. Contract negotiations take time and I bet Renault has a counter offer too.

Such a strategic decision will not be entirely dependent on a tactical issue such as which PU has improved most at a single race.

[McHonda]

Red Bull can't sell a contract offer to Dan until Honda surpass or match Renault. It'll be entirely down to the upgrades. Everything else is relatively simple now Honda have said they have no issue with Aston Martin being the title sponsor and Tag can move back to being just a team sponsor like at McLaren. I don't think Red Bull particularly care about getting as much money as McLaren did either, they've got plenty.

But if Renault's upgrade goes much better then convincing Dan to waste his peak on an even worse engine than they've got now won't go well at all, not to mention their current sponsors who are investing for a reason and expect performance, not a willing move backwards.

It needs to be equal or surpass Renault after these upgrades or they won't pull the trigger on it for next year, it's a big enough job to adjust the chassis to a new engine and some temporary performance loss can be absorbed easily enough for all the pluses it brings but if it's also an engine deficit then there's just no point in putting up with the upheaval when you can just have another year like this one instead and give Honda another year in which they'll keep improving and Dan will be happier too.

Red Bull have new aero rules to absorb at the same time for next year which will be a big enough job with a split group working on that, another working on this seasons upgrades especially if they get Dan in the title fight and then any engine swap on top of that will just be viewed as too much if they don't have at least equal performance to bring.

I'm not sure Renault are as keen to keep Red Bull as you think, I think they'll happily pack them off to Honda. With Renault seemingly dropping the ball with the MGU-K then it looks a great chance for Honda to achieve it but Red Bull will still need to see it on track before pulling the trigger, they've come out and said as much.

[loner]

But if Renault's upgrade goes much better then convincing Dan to waste his peak on an even worse engine than they've got now won't go well at all, not to mention their current sponsors who are investing for a reason and expect performance, not a willing move backwards.
It needs to be equal or surpass Renault after these upgrades or they won't pull the trigger on it for next year

Renault already said its a small upgrade , i assume around 10 hp
now Honda started the season with less 10 hp to Renault so thats 20 hp but Honda will have a substantial upgrade in Canada around 30-40 hp that will put them at least more 10 hp than Renault
RBR already know how much power Honda will provide in Canada and they signed the deal already according to BBC insiders.

[Benii6]

But if Renault's upgrade goes much better then convincing Dan to waste his peak on an even worse engine than they've got now won't go well at all, not to mention their current sponsors who are investing for a reason and expect performance, not a willing move backwards.
It needs to be equal or surpass Renault after these upgrades or they won't pull the trigger on it for next year

Renault already said its a small upgrade , i assume around 10 hp
now Honda started the season with less 10 hp to Renault so thats 20 hp but Honda will have a substantial upgrade in Canada around 30-40 hp that will put them at least more 10 hp than Renault
RBR already know how much power Honda will provide in Canada and they signed the deal already according to BBC insiders.

I think your wishes are interfering with your objective thought.

[loner]

I think your wishes are interfering with your objective thought.

Renault side saying its small upgrade , Wazari saying substantial upgrade , BBC saying insiders confirmed the deal ... where you came up with my wishes ?

[PhillipM]

Because the figures quoted for the Honda are plucked out of the air, and generally none of the figures actually released are ever peak power gains. When they say '30bhp' - they often mean to fill a dip in that was there in the power curve, it might only be for a couple hundred revs. Honda themselves have said this often enough when they've announced power and torque gains before.

The 10-12bhp figure is peak power for the Renault.

[godlameroso]

Well if the update is good for .3 seconds that means they'll be one second faster than they qualified last year. Although the hypersoft is one second faster than last years ultra soft so I'm guessing 2 seconds faster. If they qualify ~1:11.7 Honda did their job, anything more is a bonus. Pole will be a second and change faster than that, so probably a Monaco like 1:10.7.

[Talisman]

The 10-12bhp figure is peak power for the Renault.

My hunch is that the Honda upgrade will be in the same ballpark as the Renault. Nothing much will change.

[Talisman]

Red Bull can't sell a contract offer to Dan until Honda surpass or match Renault. It'll be entirely down to the upgrades. Everything else is relatively simple now Honda have said they have no issue with Aston Martin being the title sponsor and Tag can move back to being just a team sponsor like at McLaren. I don't think Red Bull particularly care about getting as much money as McLaren did either, they've got plenty.

But if Renault's upgrade goes much better then convincing Dan to waste his peak on an even worse engine than they've got now won't go well at all, not to mention their current sponsors who are investing for a reason and expect performance, not a willing move backwards.

It needs to be equal or surpass Renault after these upgrades or they won't pull the trigger on it for next year, it's a big enough job to adjust the chassis to a new engine and some temporary performance loss can be absorbed easily enough for all the pluses it brings but if it's also an engine deficit then there's just no point in putting up with the upheaval when you can just have another year like this one instead and give Honda another year in which they'll keep improving and Dan will be happier too.

Red Bull have new aero rules to absorb at the same time for next year which will be a big enough job with a split group working on that, another working on this seasons upgrades especially if they get Dan in the title fight and then any engine swap on top of that will just be viewed as too much if they don't have at least equal performance to bring.

I'm not sure Renault are as keen to keep Red Bull as you think, I think they'll happily pack them off to Honda. With Renault seemingly dropping the ball with the MGU-K then it looks a great chance for Honda to achieve it but Red Bull will still need to see it on track before pulling the trigger, they've come out and said as much.

I think you've got things the wrong way round. Teams sort out engine contracts over drivers, especially a team like RBR that has Sainz and Gasly who could step in at short notice if Dan disappeared tomorrow.

RBR have the whip hand over Dan. Where can he go? Both Mercedes and Ferrari have stable driver pairings which work well. They are unlikely to pick Dan over their existing guys. None of the other teams are likely to equal let alone beat RBR. So they have him over a barrel regardless of what he might say. His contract is therefore irrelevant to their engine deal.

What RBR don't want to do is repeat McLaren's mistake last year in reverse. They want the best engine for 2019 and 2020, not Canada 2018. Unlike many here I don't think the relative performance of the Honda vs the Renault will change much next weekend. What is more important are the things you and I can't see, the resources Honda will promise compared to that of Renault and what RBR thinks of the pair of them, what they can do over the next two YEARS not next two RACES.

You have absolutely no idea where Honda are in their development plans, nor where Renault are. It could be that Honda can only bring a small upgrade to Canada but a much bigger one later on which RBR is aware of, so that Renault bringing a better upgrade next weekend may be seen as being irrelevant. Alternatively the opposite might be true. It won't be as simple as Renault bringing 10 hp and Honda bringing 15 hp clinching the deal for Sakura.

Renault clearly want to keep RBR, they keep extending their deadline for the contract every week. Were they serious about terminating the contract it would have been sorted out already and RBR would have no choice but to go with Honda.

BTW its clear RBR don't want Honda's money as much as McLaren did because its not on offer in the first place (or perhaps only a little bit).

Anyone who thinks that its a simple 'Honda brought a bigger upgrade than Renault did, therefore we will switch suppliers' decision simply isn't getting the complexity of the decision here.

[McHonda]

But if Renault's upgrade goes much better then convincing Dan to waste his peak on an even worse engine than they've got now won't go well at all, not to mention their current sponsors who are investing for a reason and expect performance, not a willing move backwards.
It needs to be equal or surpass Renault after these upgrades or they won't pull the trigger on it for next year

Renault already said its a small upgrade , i assume around 10 hp
now Honda started the season with less 10 hp to Renault so thats 20 hp but Honda will have a substantial upgrade in Canada around 30-40 hp that will put them at least more 10 hp than Renault
RBR already know how much power Honda will provide in Canada and they signed the deal already according to BBC insiders.

AMuS put the gap at 10-20 but that's in peak power. As we saw in Baku they are still behind by more than that when ers usage struggled. Low end 10 plus low end estimate of Renault upgrade would put it at 20 in peak power and a question over ers depending on Honda's own upgrade.

20 peak improvement with good ers improvement would be the single best upgrade Honda had brought so far which might be a bit much but Renault certainly have opened the door with shelving the MGU-K upgrade.

I don't think it's impossible and I definitely think they can get close enough to be the most attractive option for Red Bull but it won't be sealed with empty promises of what's to come, it's too big a decision, they'll have to show it on track.

[McHonda]

Red Bull can't sell a contract offer to Dan until Honda surpass or match Renault. It'll be entirely down to the upgrades. Everything else is relatively simple now Honda have said they have no issue with Aston Martin being the title sponsor and Tag can move back to being just a team sponsor like at McLaren. I don't think Red Bull particularly care about getting as much money as McLaren did either, they've got plenty.

But if Renault's upgrade goes much better then convincing Dan to waste his peak on an even worse engine than they've got now won't go well at all, not to mention their current sponsors who are investing for a reason and expect performance, not a willing move backwards.

It needs to be equal or surpass Renault after these upgrades or they won't pull the trigger on it for next year, it's a big enough job to adjust the chassis to a new engine and some temporary performance loss can be absorbed easily enough for all the pluses it brings but if it's also an engine deficit then there's just no point in putting up with the upheaval when you can just have another year like this one instead and give Honda another year in which they'll keep improving and Dan will be happier too.

Red Bull have new aero rules to absorb at the same time for next year which will be a big enough job with a split group working on that, another working on this seasons upgrades especially if they get Dan in the title fight and then any engine swap on top of that will just be viewed as too much if they don't have at least equal performance to bring.

I'm not sure Renault are as keen to keep Red Bull as you think, I think they'll happily pack them off to Honda. With Renault seemingly dropping the ball with the MGU-K then it looks a great chance for Honda to achieve it but Red Bull will still need to see it on track before pulling the trigger, they've come out and said as much.

I think you've got things the wrong way round. Teams sort out engine contracts over drivers, especially a team like RBR that has Sainz and Gasly who could step in at short notice if Dan disappeared tomorrow.

RBR have the whip hand over Dan. Where can he go? Both Mercedes and Ferrari have stable driver pairings which work well. They are unlikely to pick Dan over their existing guys. None of the other teams are likely to equal let alone beat RBR. So they have him over a barrel regardless of what he might say. His contract is therefore irrelevant to their engine deal.

What RBR don't want to do is repeat McLaren's mistake last year in reverse. They want the best engine for 2019 and 2020, not Canada 2018. Unlike many here I don't think the relative performance of the Honda vs the Renault will change much next weekend. What is more important are the things you and I can't see, the resources Honda will promise compared to that of Renault and what RBR thinks of the pair of them, what they can do over the next two YEARS not next two RACES.

You have absolutely no idea where Honda are in their development plans, nor where Renault are. It could be that Honda can only bring a small upgrade to Canada but a much bigger one later on which RBR is aware of, so that Renault bringing a better upgrade next weekend may be seen as being irrelevant. Alternatively the opposite might be true. It won't be as simple as Renault bringing 10 hp and Honda bringing 15 hp clinching the deal for Sakura.

Renault clearly want to keep RBR, they keep extending their deadline for the contract every week. Were they serious about terminating the contract it would have been sorted out already and RBR would have no choice but to go with Honda.

BTW its clear RBR don't want Honda's money as much as McLaren did because its not on offer in the first place (or perhaps only a little bit).

Anyone who thinks that its a simple 'Honda brought a bigger upgrade than Renault did, therefore we will switch suppliers' decision simply isn't getting the complexity of the decision here.

I think your underestimating their desire to keep Dan, he's been their best driver this year and their only reliable points scorer and has given them two wins and he has kept them in the title hunt if they can go on and outdevelop their rivals. There's a good reason Max was shown around Honda, the drivers aren't going to commit without knowing future plans engine wise and Dan will be no different, his own talks which were set his own deadline but were pushed back until the engine situation is sorted.

He can go to Renault for sure but I don't know what the situation is at the other two currently. They've both built cars that can win both titles so one teams going to have a lot questions to ask themselves this year if they fail.

Red Bull aren't going to listen to promises, they've been waiting on a new MGU-K for 2 years and haven't been able to fight for titles because of engine reasons and are quite rightly taking their time to see who's ahead performance wise and the Canada upgrade is the first and likely last chance to see how the promised upgrades are reflected on track and effect the competitive order before they have to make the decision as the next upgrades won't be coming until it's round 13/14 which is pushing it for Renault to get confirmation of supplying another team.

It's more a case of proof of concept if you like than only caring who's better in Canada post this single upgrade. It's a lot easier to believe someone who delivered what they said they would than listening to more promises.

Renault wise I just think they are as sick of Red Bull as they are of them and would gladly part. I'm not convinced they can just refuse supply if they are still in F1, Horner didn't deny when asked by Sky that Bernie had put an obligation to supply in Red Bull's concorde deal but that is just a rumour to be fair but I just get the feeling Renault would happily split.