2018 British Grand Prix, Silverstone, July 6-8

[Manoah2u]

Oh, this race is gonna be crazy, i can feel it already.

[epo]

I love this track, has some great corners, overtake possibilities, the best supporters (yes Lewis, thank you, stole your line) but just it seems like always a very good Mix of supporters for all I mean, but, there always has to be a but right, I think we will see an utter Hamilton domination. Point 1 he is fantastic here, point 2 they need to redeem themselves (and will), point 3 merc 2.1 and now aero update , gremlins worked out by now, point 4 thinner tires, point 5 race staff will be on their absolute a game. Nobody else can touch him here, mark my words, we will see King Hamilton next Saturday and sunday. But I root for someone else and next to that, I like the races most where there is tense battle for first (and for other places but first is what counts the most and we are not going to see that come sunday.

Are you sir a Hamilton fan?
Ferrari is gonna burn some more oil and own Silverstone

[Sieper]

Ghehe, no, Max, but Hamilton is a one of the great in my book, can’t help to admire him, despite his flaws, we all have them. So maybe, Yes also a Hammy fan a bit but a die hard Verstappen fan.

[godlameroso]

This is a deceptive track, but it's so high speed that fuel economy becomes an issue, that the long wheelbase car works well under braking and now has low speed downforce to match the Ferrari means they'll just pull another Barcelona. Honestly though after the double retirement in Austria at least it will keep the championship interesting. Besides you never know, someone can make a mistake and then all else breaks loose. It is Hamilton's race to lose that's for sure.

[Big Tea]

Watch out for dry right up until race start, then heavy rain

[LM10]

I don't know how the weather will be, but a high temperature track would favor blistering on the Hards. The harder the tyre (and therefore less wear) the higher the temperature (especially on tracks like Silverstone where the tyres need to sustain high energies). That's why blistering was an issue primarily on the Softs in Austria.
But due to the thinner tyre depth blistering most probably won't be an issue anyway this time.

That's not really correct, track and ambient temps are only part of the equation.

• The hards don't provide as much grip as the softer tires, so you cant push them as hard, and put as much heat in them, as you could a softer tire.
• The working temperature range of the compound also has a big effect.
• The abrasiveness of the track surface also plays a big part, because if the tires wear fast, it sheads heat as it wears.

This is how Pirelli describes the hards.

The second-toughest tyre in Pirelli’s range is designed for the circuits that put the highest energy loadings through the tyres, with fast corners or abrasive surfaces, and are often characterised by high ambient temperatures. The compound takes longer to warm up, but offers maximum durability – which frequently means that it plays a key role in race strategy. This is a high working range compound.

https://www.pirelli.com/tyres/en-ww/mot ... omepage-f1

I more or less was thinking the same way as you. The things I wrote about the harder tyre tending to blister more because of less wear (more rubber, more heat in it) was told by Mario Isola after the Austrian Grand Pix. I would say both sides are kind of right with each explanation.

[CRazyLemon]

Just to clear this gearbox situation up, Bottas can change his gearbox penalty free, Lewis can also take a new gearbox without penalty if the team decides same for Vandoorne, Hartley, Ricciardo and Hülkenberg.

http://s1131.photobucket.com/user/timec ... x.jpg.html

So the question is, what is considered beyond the team or drivers control? Surely reliability is the responsibility of the team and something that should be in their control? Being punted off the road and breaking a gearbox is something I consider out of the team and driver's control.

[f1316]

On paper it’s nailed on for Mercedes .

The only hope is that the rumoured Ferrari update brings something significant - they haven’t really brought anything since Canada, whereas Mercedes brought a big update last week, so they’re kinda out of sync with each other.

I’m not sure that the Ferrari wouldn’t have been on terms with Mercedes at this type of track earlier in the season - certainly in China they were stronger - but, not only is this a traditional Mercedes track, but they’ve also upped their game.

Ferrari seems to remain decent on race pace - but we haven’t got a really clear view of Vettel’s pace either of the last two weeks - but that won’t necessarily be true here as the harder compounds (I didn’t say anything about thinner! ) are much more suited to the Mercedes car.

China's not comparable and Ferrari were the strongest three races ago in Canada although HS and let's say unequal engine situation contributed.

Merc are the favourites with some unknown areas regarding harder tyres especially Q on softs and weather affecting the race.

Yep, I agree. I do think the rumoured Ferrari upgrade is also a relevant unknown too though.

[Vasconia]

Ferrari should be stronger this year because theoretically this car has a greater aero efficiency due to the longer wheelbase. But, facts have shown us until now that Mercedes seems to be clearly stronger, so the Italians need to improve the aero efficiency.

Mercedes has more powerful PU, not better aero efficiency. They weren't that strong at all on race day in Austria, they were weaker in Canada and in Monaco. I'm not counting Spain and France for obvious reasons. Mercedes were strong in Qualy in Austria because of more powerful PU than before (unlike Ferrari, which is "only" more reliable and uses less fuel) and because of track temp. Also, Seb messed his lap, so all in all kind of like China reversed.

But Barcelona and Silverstone are tracks were aero efficency is needed, and also being strong in fast corners. Mercedes is very strong in both aspects so they will be very strong in Silverstone. Let alone they will have they beloved tyres, I guess Lewis must be very happy.

[Vasconia]

Yep, I agree. I do think the rumoured Ferrari upgrade is also a relevant unknown too though.

Vettel mentioned that they bring updates in different races than Merceds, so I guess we should expect an update in Silverstone or Germany. I do hope its an important one.

[Phil]

Mercedes has more powerful PU, not better aero efficiency. They weren't that strong at all on race day in Austria, they were weaker in Canada and in Monaco. I'm not counting Spain and France for obvious reasons. Mercedes were strong in Qualy in Austria because of more powerful PU than before (unlike Ferrari, which is "only" more reliable and uses less fuel) and because of track temp. Also, Seb messed his lap, so all in all kind of like China reversed.

I love it how most people can only think as far back as the last 40 laps of a GP. If Mercedes had comfortably won Austria in a dominant 1-2, which they likely would have without their non-PU-related technical problems, everyone would be whinging about how this season is over etc. All indications are that the blistering was related to only the SOFT tire - due to the fact that the soft tire had the least amount of degradation, so the tire - when pushed hard - overheated at the surface and caused heavy blistering. This was pretty much limited to the soft-tire. Pretty much every team suffered from it, except perhaps Ferrari either because they are that more kind to tires, they somehow got the set-up right or they simply didn't push that hard as Mercedes/Lewis did for different reasons (as in; They knew they had to make their tires last for 56 laps vs Lewis who stopped later and was trying to make up his lost positions after the strategic f***-up.

In other words - the pace Lewis and Bottas had on the SS they started on was very good. Lewis was the quickest driver out there and only when the others pitted for fresher S tires, did they catch up pace wise. Only Mercedes then had other considerations to make, since it was clear they would not be able to clear a 8s gap they had to Max, hence why they changed their strategy. All indications are, if this had been a race under normal circumstances (no VSC to throw the strategy around), Mercedes would have easily wiped the floor with the rest, running in front, managing their pace and bringing a 1-2 home.

Hence I predict - Silverstone will be Mercedes territory.

[FLuidd]

The thin threaded tyres will favour Mercedes.

This is also a track that Hamilton is strong on.

On paper it should look like Mercedes have the upper hand, but i am not conviced that any mercedes drivers can cobvert the probable pole into victory.

[Sieper]

I would go as far as to say that is almost not a prediction anymore but a given. Merc is looking like they won back their advantage with the engine and aero update.

[NathanOlder]

3 DRS zones, and the 3rd DRS zone runs from Start FInish line to Village (turn 3) So a DRS zone will run through corners for the 1st time.

Qualifying could be awsome to see who opens and closes DRS earlier/later

Love it.


Edit, just realised I read this info here

https://www.verstappen.nl/en/article/3336

So not sure if its 100% true.

[Nuvolari]

[...]
In other words - the pace Lewis and Bottas had on the SS they started on was very good. Lewis was the quickest driver out there and only when the others pitted for fresher S tires, did they catch up pace wise. Only Mercedes then had other considerations to make, since it was clear they would not be able to clear a 8s gap they had to Max, hence why they changed their strategy. All indications are, if this had been a race under normal circumstances (no VSC to throw the strategy around), Mercedes would have easily wiped the floor with the rest, running in front, managing their pace and bringing a 1-2 home.

Hence I predict - Silverstone will be Mercedes territory.

It's interesting how they can 'wipe the floor' with the rest when running 1-2 but don't have the pace over the rest to find 8 seconds? I'm not sure in what dictionary that is wiping the floor.

If Merc were so dominant in Austria as you suggest, they will have easily made up the 8 second deficit from the strategy mistake. In reality, they were just hanging on by a thread. So, I predict Ferrari will be very strong here in Silverstone.

The tyre situation could swing it to Merc though.