Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[strad]

Ok
I split autonomous off from EVs.
Have at it boys.

[roon]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_reasoning
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ambiguity

[Zynerji]

When battery energy density >/= petrol energy density.

[Tim.Wright]

In my opinion the only performance roadblock at the moment is charging time. Range is now acceptable but waiting 30min for a charge isn't. especially for city driving where the total trip is typically only 10min to begin with.

[henry]

When battery energy density >/= petrol energy density.

I’m not sure I follow your symbology but if the energy densities were the same my current vehicle would be replaced by one with a range of around 2000 miles. Petrol engines are less efficient than electric engines.

[rgava]

They are viable right now!
The fact they are being produced and sold shows it.
If you interpretate viablity as having the same range and charging time as the ICE powered vehicles, then, most probably, never will happen.
Some people complain about changing time and range. For someone like me today's range is ok to make the trip from home to job everyday, acounting for 60-70 percent of my fuel consumption. And there is plenty of time during my job hours and my rest hours to recharge.
Of course, if I want this plus 1000 km range and 10 minutes recharging for the one time in the year I go on a long trip, this is not the case yet and most probably it will never be.
If we want them viable we have to change our pattern.

[AJI]

When battery energy density >/= petrol energy density.

I’m not sure I follow your symbology but if the energy densities were the same my current vehicle would be replaced by one with a range of around 2000 miles. Petrol engines are less efficient than electric engines.

Exactly. That, coupled with the significant power to weight advantages of a fully electrically powered vehicle (sans battery) don't make a 1:1 comparison in energy density fair.
The tipping point seems a long way away with current battery tech, but as Tim said, it's really about how fast we can recharge. IMO, the whole 'battery swaping depot' idea is not a viable option. Sure, the batteries should ideally be based on a universal platform, such as 18650s (or the next iteration of the 18650). They've worked fine for computers and power tools and Teslas after all, but there is much room for improvement. The simple solution with current tech is to have double the capacity you need and fast charging (5 minutes) to ~60% of that capacity.
The strain on the grid is a completely different argument, but has to be considered.
Ps thanks for splitting this off strad. I'm interested in both EV and AV, but they don't really have anything to do with each other even though they are commonly associated.

[Cold Fussion]

In Australia the Renault Zoe costs $52k AUD while the base clio costs $20k AUD. There are a lot of very nice cars to buy around the 50k AUD level. If I lived inside/much closer to the city center then I would be much better served IMO with an e-bike + car than just an electric car.

[Just_a_fan]

Will electric vehicles be viable? Yes.

When? Now!

Yes, really, for many people EVs are already a viable vehicle. Are they viable/suitable/best choice for everyone in the world? No, of course not but then neither are ICEVs

The only real issue for EVs is the infrastructure. Being able to find sufficient charge points away from home and also, how the electricity is generated and distributed. These are ok so far but if mass adoption of EVs is required/desired then they will need to be looked at.

[Just_a_fan]

In Australia the Renault Zoe costs $52k AUD while the base clio costs $20k AUD. There are a lot of very nice cars to buy around the 50k AUD level. If I lived inside/much closer to the city center then I would be much better served IMO with an e-bike + car than just an electric car.

I guess one issue for far-flung places like Australia is that everything is imported and this puts up cost. If someone in Aus built an EV, the cost might be lower. At least in Aus you have an abundance of renewables - even if you currently get over 3/4 of your energy from fossil fuels. Developing smart grids to harness that renewable energy is going to be key - not just in Aus but everywhere else too.

Of course, for many in Aus the distances are always going to be an issue - a bit like the US, you have people who are sufficiently remote that anything other than ICE is currently not practical.

[Tim.Wright]

Will electric vehicles be viable? Yes.

When? Now!

Yes, really, for many people EVs are already a viable vehicle. Are they viable/suitable/best choice for everyone in the world? No, of course not but then neither are ICEVs

Plug in EV sales are typically at around 1-3% of total new vehicle sales. It's hard to judge them as viable when 98% of the new car buying population think that's not the case.

If you look at countries where EV take up rates are higher than average (but still a minority), such as China and Norway, you will see that they are massively backed by government incentives. In other words they aren't viable as in themselves. They need a financial skewing to make them viable to the end user in the form of lower or non-existent taxes, free parking and charging services, and lower duty on the purchase.

When the global take-up rate reaches >20% by their own merit (i.e. without government assistance) - then we can consider them viable. This will happen when battery technology becomes cheaper and they can recharge in a reasonable time.

[jjn9128]

With the big European countries banning petrol and diesel from city centres the automotive companies are having their hands forced. The next cycle of new cars will pretty much all be either full EV or PHEV - so in the next 5 years there won't be much choice when buying a new car. In the UK (my only reference of experience) EV versions of cars are about 25% more expensive than their counterparts, not the 100% quoted from our Australian comrades, but the government is giving a £5k grant for EV buyers, plus you pay no car tax on a "zero emissions" (at the tailpipe) vehicle.

Going back to my favourite youtube channel

[Big Tea]

Fully electric is I think a long way off.
Other than cost, the down side to me is where to charge them. For instance, I have a drive, and am retired.
If I did not have my own parking space close enough to 'wire up' and had to use the car for work, I dont know I would risk it until the very last chance.

[Tim.Wright]

That video was quite good. But it shows that as of today it's not viable. EV's simply don't suit 97-98% of the car buying population.

According to their S-curve it will be another 6-7 years before we get to the point whereby most (50%) vehicles sold are electric.

[Andres125sx]

When battery energy density >/= petrol energy density.

I’m not sure I follow your symbology but if the energy densities were the same my current vehicle would be replaced by one with a range of around 2000 miles. Petrol engines are less efficient than electric engines.

Exactly. That, coupled with the significant power to weight advantages of a fully electrically powered vehicle (sans battery) don't make a 1:1 comparison in energy density fair.
The tipping point seems a long way away with current battery tech, but as Tim said, it's really about how fast we can recharge. IMO, the whole 'battery swaping depot' idea is not a viable option. Sure, the batteries should ideally be based on a universal platform, such as 18650s (or the next iteration of the 18650). They've worked fine for computers and power tools and Teslas after all, but there is much room for improvement. The simple solution with current tech is to have double the capacity you need and fast charging (5 minutes) to ~60% of that capacity.
The strain on the grid is a completely different argument, but has to be considered.
Ps thanks for splitting this off strad. I'm interested in both EV and AV, but they don't really have anything to do with each other even though they are commonly associated.

About the bolded part, if double capacity, no need to fast charge in 5 minutes, or if batteries can be fast charged in 5 minutes, there´s no need to double the range at all