Jackles-UK wrote: ↑23 Jul 2018, 02:05
Hamilton earned the win today with a superb drive, no luck involved as I think he was on track to win the race with the pace he had on the US tyres regardless of Vettel binning it. The real skill though was consistently lapping close to the pace of VET, RAI & BOT on tyres 30 laps older than his rivals, this allowed him to go aggressive and fit the US tyres rather than fitting the mediums like Alonso had to.
He can consider himself a little lucky though to extend his championship lead by as much as he has. I get the feeling that had the race been in any other country Vettel would have played the numbers game and brought it home on the podium at worst. Having had a pretty poor record by his standards at Hockenheim (which is only 28 miles from his home town) I think he was on a death-or-glory mission to finally win on home soil and pushed too hard to try and protect himself from Hamilton who was flying behind him.
On the penalty, it probably should have been a more severe punishment but given that all cars were at safety car speed there wasn’t really any danger involved in doing what he did. The FIA also had to kind of guess as no penalty is actually specified in the ruling; I would therefore expect a rule clarification from them in the not too distant future followed by uproar when the defined penalty is different to the one Hamilton received!
Looking at the numbers I'm not sure Vettel was or could play the numbers. He was losing a lot of time to Hamilton already but more over he was slower than Kimi and Bottas also in the final two laps. Looks to me like his tires probably dropped out of the temp window and he lost grip and could well be responsible for his crash.
Had he not crashed if he continued losing over a second a lap to Bottas and not much less to Kimi, well to me I would think if his tires had gone off the cliff he had no option but to pit. IF he went onto ultras pretty much that lap he's going to be ~15 seconds behind Kimi. Kimi would probably need to pit again, Bottas probably wouldn't. Could he catch Bottas, hard to tell, Ham on the ultras and faster than anyone I think would get by those two and no chance VEttel catches him with that gap on only 10 lap fresher tires.
However if he pitted right then at it's wettest, he might well have put on inters which would have left him imo out of the top three. He'd pit, be slow and 15 seconds behind Kimi then he and Kimi pit for fresh ultras within a few laps. Neither would have any chance of catching the front two.