2018 Italian Grand Prix - Monza, 31 Aug - 2 Sep

[siskue2005]

Out of the next 8 races, Lewis only needs to win 3 races and come 2nd in the rest of 5 races to win the championship by 3 points ..............i think the championship will go down the wire.
Realistically Lewis can win Suzuka, Austin and Brazil.....rest he can scrape in 2nd at the minimum.

That is if Vettel doesn't bottle it and wins 5 of them, you say? I could expect another DNF by either of them.

No no this is even if Vettel wins 5 races and come second in rest 3 Lewis will win the championship by 3 points provided Lewis wins 3 races and comes 2nd in all remaining 5 races.

Lewis current point = 231
3 wins + 5 2nd places = 165
So total after final race = 396

Vettel current point = 214
5 wins + 3 2nd place = 179
So total after final race = 393

So this scenario Lewis wins by 3 points

So Lewis can afford to come 2nd in 5 races as long as he wins the rest.

Whereas Vettel needs to win 6 out 8 at the minimum to win

This is not including other factors such as teammates in between, dnf etc etc....as hoping bad luck for others or hoping either will finish beyond 2nd place is out of their own hand....and they just need to do this to win

[JonoNic]

Out of the next 8 races, Lewis only needs to win 3 races and come 2nd in the rest of 5 races to win the championship by 3 points ..............i think the championship will go down the wire.
Realistically Lewis can win Suzuka, Austin and Brazil.....rest he can scrape in 2nd at the minimum.

That is if Vettel doesn't bottle it and wins 5 of them, you say? I could expect another DNF by either of them.

No no this is even if Vettel wins 5 races and come second in rest 3 Lewis will win the championship by 3 points provided Lewis wins 3 races and comes 2nd in all remaining 5 races.

Lewis current point = 231
3 wins + 5 2nd places = 165
So total after final race = 396

Vettel current point = 214
5 wins + 3 2nd place = 179
So total after final race = 393

So this scenario Lewis wins by 3 points

So Lewis can afford to come 2nd in 5 races as long as he wins the rest.

Whereas Vettel needs to win 6 out 8 at the minimum to win

This is not including other factors such as teammates in between, dnf etc etc....as hoping bad luck for others or hoping either will finish beyond 2nd place is out of their own hand....and they just need to do this to win

One DNF changes everything for both drivers.

[Big Tea]

One DNF changes everything for both drivers.
[/quote]

Or even one finish outside the top 5

[alexx_88]

Of note: it very rarely rains at Monza in early September. The only real rain I remember there for many years is when Vettel won his first race in a Toro Rosso.

It rained heavily last year all throughout Saturday, including qualy.

[LM10]

One DNF changes everything for both drivers.

Or even one finish outside the top 5

True, though without technical problems it's almost impossible for any of the top teams to finish worse than 6th. Even in cruise control it seems they would overtake all others in the race.

In my opinion, it's shocking how the gap between the top 3 teams and the others got even bigger from last year. Yet, I thought quite the opposite would happen since all customers get the same engine, mapping etc. as the manufacturers this year. RBR even have had a power disadvantage compared to Renault because of their different fuel.

[aral]

Speculation about championship does not belong on a thread devoted to the Italian GP. It is far too early for such speculation. You can prove anything by numbers but unfortunately anything can happen and a lot can also depend on where a teammate finishes, and how it can affect overall results. Any further posts on this thread about the outcome at the end of the year, will face removal.
Please stay on topic.

[godlameroso]

Still looking like rain on Friday, not so much for the rest of the weekend.

[JonoNic]

Courtesy of Autosport

[digitalrurouni]

I predict a Lewis/mercedes pole and a Seb/Ferrari win at Monza.

[F1Krof]

I predict a Lewis/mercedes pole and a Seb/Ferrari win at Monza.

Nah, the Ferrari's getting full house this time. They have the perfect package now (on dry) and the perfect driver. There is no stopping Vetrrari (or Ferrtel) this season.

[NathanOlder]

So what do you guys think about Haas' chances here? Surely they will be quicker than Red Bull ?

If the Ferrari engine has 160hp more for 4 seconds, plus the 70hp advantage over renault for the whole lap, Red Bull cant possibly beat Haas and Leclerc ??

[Juzh]

So what do you guys think about Haas' chances here? Surely they will be quicker than Red Bull ?

If the Ferrari engine has 160hp more for 4 seconds, plus the 70hp advantage over renault for the whole lap, Red Bull cant possibly beat Haas and Leclerc ??

Nah, there's just no way. Maybe it will be close in quali, but in the race red bull will blow them away.

[BwajSF]

That wont work, as Ferrari will just mirror the strategy in Q2.

Assuming Mercedes see themselves as the underdog and want to win the WDC at all costs, the intelligent thing to do would be to split strategies with Hamilton and Bottas. Have Bottas do S and Hamilton SS in Q2. Ferrari will surely mirror Hamilton as he is the WDC contender. Then use the second driver, Bottas, play a road block to when Vettel stops before to ensure an overcut works. Same would apply in reverse too.

It’s dirty stuff, especially for the second driver and IMO Mercedes wont do it, but it is still fascinating to discuss the posibility of a tactic like that being used...

How did we go from fans hating team orders to something like this being discussed?

Blows my mind that any team would execute a strategy to that level of hindrance.

hindrance is underrated. Just like at Spa, if Lewis didn't come out of the pit behind Verstappen on fresh tires, I'd think he would have come a lot closer when Vettel exited the pit, then the race through Eau Rouge-Raidillon-Kemmel, would have been exciting and a pass for the lead could have happened.

Just a car in front with some turbulent air can have a big impact on the outcome of a race.

Mate u have missed a important piece of info here... Lewis after coming out of pits Had a Purple Middle Sector and Caught Max right at the end of middle sector so he gained a massive tow in the Last sector which again was purple,,, without max the tow would have been there and seb would have comfortable come out 2 seconds ahead of hamilton.. at the minimum.

[Big Mangalhit]

So what do you guys think about Haas' chances here? Surely they will be quicker than Red Bull ?

If the Ferrari engine has 160hp more for 4 seconds, plus the 70hp advantage over renault for the whole lap, Red Bull cant possibly beat Haas and Leclerc ??

Efficient aero is still king. Less drag has more influence on max speed than engine. RB will run with almost no wings whilst haas not as much. I predict that RB will easily be ahead

[search]

So what do you guys think about Haas' chances here? Surely they will be quicker than Red Bull ?

If the Ferrari engine has 160hp more for 4 seconds, plus the 70hp advantage over renault for the whole lap, Red Bull cant possibly beat Haas and Leclerc ??

Efficient aero is still king. Less drag has more influence on max speed than engine. RB will run with almost no wings whilst haas not as much. I predict that RB will easily be ahead

I agree, starting from the last row will open this up a bit though. Or will only Ricciardo take a penalty?