2018 season

[Phil]

Oops my bad. The point of my post (and math) was in the constellation that Vettel wins the next 4 races (best-case for Vettel), so Hamilton winning another one obviously changes the scenario. I think the math on the rest should be sound though.

[NathanOlder]

Oops my bad. The point of my post (and math) was in the constellation that Vettel wins the next 4 races (best-case for Vettel), so Hamilton winning another one obviously changes the scenario. I think the math on the rest should be sound though.

Yeah

I was just thinking, how would it pan out IF Lewis had an accident in training and broke a leg. If he had to miss the last 4 races. What would Mercedes do ? and what then are Vettel's chances ?

Who would Mercedes put in Lewis' car ? Rosberg ? Russell ? Ocon ? and would Vettel be able to score 68+ points (3 x 2nd place + 1 x 3rd place) ?
Mercedes look very strong now, So Bottas would be in a good position to win races (depending on who his team mate is) Plus Red Bull will surely be strong in Mexico again. I think the championship would be VERY exciting , with even Lewis trying to be fit to race the last race if he could clear the medical to do so! (clearly I'm bored )

[Jolle]

Oops my bad. The point of my post (and math) was in the constellation that Vettel wins the next 4 races (best-case for Vettel), so Hamilton winning another one obviously changes the scenario. I think the math on the rest should be sound though.

Yeah

I was just thinking, how would it pan out IF Lewis had an accident in training and broke a leg. If he had to miss the last 4 races. What would Mercedes do ? and what then are Vettel's chances ?

Who would Mercedes put in Lewis' car ? Rosberg ? Russell ? Ocon ? and would Vettel be able to score 68+ points (3 x 2nd place + 1 x 3rd place) ?
Mercedes look very strong now, So Bottas would be in a good position to win races (depending on who his team mate is) Plus Red Bull will surely be strong in Mexico again. I think the championship would be VERY exciting , with even Lewis trying to be fit to race the last race if he could clear the medical to do so! (clearly I'm bored )

hmm.... first race they would put Russel in and in the mean time try to negotiate Ocon in the car with Wehrlein on standby when every thing fails.

But I think Vettel wouldn't want to win the title that way. At least I hope he wouldn't

[Fulcrum]

If he broke his leg now he'd be back in time for the final race, possibly even Brazil.

If you had to bet on one circuit where Hamilton would win, it would be Austin. I think the only point of interest will be the threat of a DNF, and observing if Bottas can finish ahead of Vettel. The latter looks quite likely considering the Mercedes is undeniably the faster car recently.

Also, if Hamilton were to win the final 4 races, he'd have managed 8 in a row, placing him 1 win behind Vettel with respect to that statistic.

[WaikeCU]

Oops my bad. The point of my post (and math) was in the constellation that Vettel wins the next 4 races (best-case for Vettel), so Hamilton winning another one obviously changes the scenario. I think the math on the rest should be sound though.

Yeah

I was just thinking, how would it pan out IF Lewis had an accident in training and broke a leg. If he had to miss the last 4 races. What would Mercedes do ? and what then are Vettel's chances ?

Who would Mercedes put in Lewis' car ? Rosberg ? Russell ? Ocon ? and would Vettel be able to score 68+ points (3 x 2nd place + 1 x 3rd place) ?
Mercedes look very strong now, So Bottas would be in a good position to win races (depending on who his team mate is) Plus Red Bull will surely be strong in Mexico again. I think the championship would be VERY exciting , with even Lewis trying to be fit to race the last race if he could clear the medical to do so! (clearly I'm bored )

hmm.... first race they would put Russel in and in the mean time try to negotiate Ocon in the car with Wehrlein on standby when every thing fails.

But I think Vettel wouldn't want to win the title that way. At least I hope he wouldn't

Accidents happen. It’s part of sports. Would you think France cared if they won the European Championships in 2016 when Ronaldo was caried off the field?

I don’t think so.

[timbo]

Interestingly at this point of the year, HAM had the same amount of points as last year, VET was one point up.

[Jolle]

Yeah

I was just thinking, how would it pan out IF Lewis had an accident in training and broke a leg. If he had to miss the last 4 races. What would Mercedes do ? and what then are Vettel's chances ?

Who would Mercedes put in Lewis' car ? Rosberg ? Russell ? Ocon ? and would Vettel be able to score 68+ points (3 x 2nd place + 1 x 3rd place) ?
Mercedes look very strong now, So Bottas would be in a good position to win races (depending on who his team mate is) Plus Red Bull will surely be strong in Mexico again. I think the championship would be VERY exciting , with even Lewis trying to be fit to race the last race if he could clear the medical to do so! (clearly I'm bored )

hmm.... first race they would put Russel in and in the mean time try to negotiate Ocon in the car with Wehrlein on standby when every thing fails.

But I think Vettel wouldn't want to win the title that way. At least I hope he wouldn't

Accidents happen. It’s part of sports. Would you think France cared if they won the European Championships in 2016 when Ronaldo was caried off the field?

I don’t think so.

I suddenly have this image of two shady Italian mafia guys at the Mercedes hospitality unit "you know, accidents happen"

[garyjpaterson]

Even more interesting to me is that in 2015 (with 4 races to go), VET was closer to HAM than he is now... In a car that was much less competitive then than it is now (race winning, but clearly second rate to the Merc).

[Jolle]

Interestingly at this point of the year, HAM had the same amount of points as last year, VET was one point up.

And last year Hamilton didn't have a DNF and Vettel had two instead of one. So Hamilton scored better and Vettel worse by roughly the same amount.

[WaikeCU]

hmm.... first race they would put Russel in and in the mean time try to negotiate Ocon in the car with Wehrlein on standby when every thing fails.

But I think Vettel wouldn't want to win the title that way. At least I hope he wouldn't

Accidents happen. It’s part of sports. Would you think France cared if they won the European Championships in 2016 when Ronaldo was caried off the field?

I don’t think so.

I suddenly have this image of two shady Italian mafia guys at the Mercedes hospitality unit "you know, accidents happen"

Then Toto does a bad Marlon Brando impression in The Godfather

“I’m gonna make Seb an offer he can’t refuse!”

[marmer]

Just on the idea that a broken leg could stop ham racing.


Could they not put the peddle on the steering wheel for one race or if the rules actually don't allow it just give ham some local pain relief and hope for the last race he could cruise just behind the normal top cars

[JonoNic]

This topic is going dark with broken legs. Schumacher had a season like that...

[Jolle]

This topic is going dark with broken legs. Schumacher had a season like that...

Which almost got him fired because he was playing football with mick when “unable to drive”

[graham.reeds]

Mercedes would just hire Maldonado to crash into Vettel and secure the championship for Hamilton!

[Phil]

So, the WDC is wrapped up. But there's still a bit of excitement over the WCC.

Current standings from the official FIA.com website:

1 Mercedes 585
2 Ferrari 530 (-55)
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3 Red Bull/Renault 362 (-168)
-
-
4 Renault 114
5 Haas/Ferrari 84 (-30)
6 McLaren/Renault 62 (-22)
-
7 Force India/Mercedes 43 (-19)
8 Sauber/Ferrari 36 (-7)
9 Toro Rosso/Honda 31 (-5)
-
-
10 Williams/Mercedes 7


At the moment, there are still two races to go with potentially 86 points up for grabs (25+18+25+18=86), assuming a 1-2 finish. This makes me think Mercedes is just out of reach for Ferrari, neglecting the chance of a DNF. For Ferrari to overhaul Mercedes, they need to decrease the gap by 23 points per race.

Mercedes vs Ferrari
Yesterday (Mexican GP), it was a horrendous day for Mercedes, yet Ferrari only gained 11 points on Mercedes with their 2nd and 3rd (=33) vs Mercedes with 4th and 5th (=22). Assuming worst case scenario besides DNFing any of the car, a 5th and 6th will still net them 18 points. Assuming Ferrari win with a 1-2 that's 43, so a net-gain of 25 points. Just enough to overhaul Mercedes within two races if they manage to do this twice. Which I doubt. It's more likely one of the teams could have a costly DNF however...

Formula B
Renault with a 30 points lead looks fairly secure, given they are only fighting for scraps of points. Assuming the best they can achieve under a normal weekend (...where the top 3 don't have a DNF) is a 7th position with 6 points, I can't see a large overturn of points happening. A 7th and an 8th nets 10 points, a 6th-7th 14 points. Worst case scenario, if you throw in a DNF and overhauling a 30 points gap just seems close to impossible.

On that point, Haas looks to be pretty secure in 5th too with a 22 point gap to McLaren. And given McLaren is barely keeping themselves afloat, they can be pretty happy to be in 6th. Force-India is behind McLAren by 19 points, but again, given they are only fighting over positions 7th to 10th (6 to 1 point), I'm not holding my breath for any miracles, even if McLaren is likely to not score any points (I think Stoffel was very lucky in Mexico to score a 8th place).

Fight over 7th position
I think the fight over who gets 7th position to be the most interesting. From the 3 teams of Force-India, Sauber and Torro-Rosso, I think Sauber is probably the one that could perhaps gain a position. They are only 7 points behind Force-India, so a points finish for both drivers in both races could mean they could make up. But for that to happen, I think Force-India, who has two very strong drivers in Perez and Ocon and a very strong car, will have to have two horrendous weekends, while Sauber will need good ones.


Permutations / Mercedes and Ferrari
Hard to do permutations for the lower teams, because while they could win a race, it's probably not going to happen. In anycase, Mercedes is 55 points ahead of Ferrari. With 86 points still up for grabs, the maximum Ferrari could achieve is a points total of (530+86) 616 points.

To put it bluntly, the maximum Ferrari will be able to achieve AFTER Brazil are 43 points. With the point gap currently at 55 points, in order to stay in the WCC fight, they need to gain at least 13 points on Mercedes in Brazil. If they don't, Mercedes has secured the WCC.