Will Schumacher's Race Win and WDC records be broken?

[TAG]

At the end of 2013 with Red Bull having had an incredible 4 year run of double championships, if anyone had suggested someone other than Vettel would have a real shot at the Schumacher records they would have been laughed at. Fast forward to today and we see Ferrari, Red Bull and now Mercedes have been able to string together a long run of championship years, so it's not as uncommon as we'd like to think. Given were we are today, I'm curious if you guys think that one, both or neither of Schumacher's records are safe.

Both Vettel and Hamilton potentially have 5 racing years left in them, so they're both within immediate consideration as candidates to be the ones that do it. That being said, we know very well that nothing is assured in the sport and given the changes next year and again in 2021 with the scheduled PU changes, the likelihood of performance bunching teams together is greater than the likelihood of one team continuing to dominate so it's all very much up in the air.

Personally I think the 91 race win record is on much shakier ground than the 7 world titles, with 21 races on the calendar. Curious to see what the general consensus is.

[Sieper]

Hamilton is certainly up to the task. It will all depend on if Honda can provide RBR with an engine with enough power and reliability to challenge them and how Ferrari returns next year. If Hamilton gets defeated the next two years I am unsure if he will stick to racing. But likely he will .

[Fulcrum]

The race record is the most likely to be broken, realistically only by Hamilton.

With respect to Hamilton, his longest interval of time taken to win 20 races spans 2008 to the beginning of 2014; 7 years of race entries - even though this was achieved early in 2014. Bear in mind that during his entire McLaren career, 6 years, he "only" won 21 races.

Since joining Mercedes, his average time to achieve 20 race wins has averaged 3 years, if you include the 2013 year; 2 since then.

Schumacher himself took 3 years (2004-2006), including the mega-dominant 2004 where he won 13 of 18 races, to move from 70 wins to 91.

Considering the increased competitiveness of Ferrari (hopefully Red Bull), my vague forecast would be for late to mid-2021. Any major shift in competitiveness pushes this out by years though.

The best case scenario is, 2 more years like the last 5, end of 2020 he has 7 championships and 90-92 race wins.

[zac510]

Just a pointless thread, sure to descend into a 'my driver is better than yours' dumpster thread.

[Just_a_fan]

The race wins record ought to be "easier" than the titles record for Hamilton to get. Assuming he does more than the next two years, it's possible to not win the title again but to win another 20 races in that time.

It depends on whether there is a two-way or three-way fight for the title. A two-way fight makes the combined title / wins record more likely as you really need 9-10 wins to take the title. You could lose the titles and still get the race wins, of course - look at 2016 where Hamilton got 10 wins and still lost the title! A three-way makes the wins record more difficult still as you could win the title with only 6 or 7 wins.

Of course, all of this is predicated on Mercedes making a car that is capable of winning the title. A three-way fight makes the title easier to win as your bad days can be slightly less costly than they are in a two-way fight.

[Just_a_fan]

Just a pointless thread, sure to descend into a 'my driver is better than yours' dumpster thread.

It doesn't have to, but sadly it probably will...

[Sieper]

My driver is better then yours.

[Just_a_fan]

D'oh!

[Just_a_fan]

Another little figure to mull is what will the pole record be when Hamilton retires? Vettel is currently 26 poles behind Hamilton - not unreachable given a suitable car as he is a demon qualifier in his own right. Could we see 100 poles as the record when these two finally retire? Hamilton "only" needs 19 more.

[DiogoBrand]

The 7 WDC is unlikely to be broken, but it can be equated.

[TAG]

Just took a quick look. Winning championships is harder, there are so many variables and judging by Hamilton's post race interview he really did seem to believe that this was Mercede's toughest year yet. Before 1983 is seemed winning a driver's championship and not winning a constructor's championship was commonplace. Since then only McLaren (3 times) and Benneton (1 time) have failed to win a constructor's title while winning the driver's title.

Ultimately it will depend on which team rises to dominance next or how long Mercedes can remain as relevant as they've been since 2014. If we miss the Vettel/Hamilton window that exists right now, the records will stand much much longer.

[Vasconia]

The 7 WDC is unlikely to be broken, but it can be equated.

Hamilton winning another 2-3 championships in a row wouldn´t be the best scenario for F1 but if Mercedes and Lewis himself continue at this level it may happen.

The race victories record could be more easily be broken as they have more races nowadays so I guess its a matter of time. Records are made to be broken.

[NathanOlder]

Vettel is currently 26 poles behind Hamilton - not unreachable given a suitable car as he is a demon qualifier in his own right.

I think Leclerc will hurt Vettels chances a lot more than Bottas/Ocon will for Lewis. If Ferrari have a car good enough , Leclerc will definitely take more away from Vettel, so I cant see Seb catching Lewis on that stat now, the gap has more chance of widening IMO

[Just_a_fan]

The 7 WDC is unlikely to be broken, but it can be equated.

Hamilton winning another 2-3 championships in a row wouldn´t be the best scenario for F1

That kind of depends on how they're won. If it's a close fight down to the last race or two with another team e.g. Seb, Max, then him winning is no less good for F1 than if either of the others wins. We have to remember that Hamilton hasn't had the total dominance that Michael did in 2001, 2002 or 2004 where he won the title on the 13th of 17, 11th of 17 and 14th of 18 respectively. Nor has he won by such a big margin of points as Vettel did twice in his 4 titles (the other two going to the wire). He's had to fight a strong team mate or a strong opponent team each time for each of his titles.

I'd agree that a run away dominance wouldn't be so good for F1, however.

[Phil]

Maybe this is the pessimist in me speaking, but I think it’s going to be incredibly difficult to keep this level of performance up. I said the same last year (and was wrong), but i really expect RedBull to be a force to be reckoned with. Ferrari too, although perhaps the battle between Leclerc and Vettel might keep them occupied a little, while i expect pretty smooth sailing for Max and Hamilton against their team-mates...