Two drivers entered 2018 with a chance of winning a fifth world drivers crown. It was Lewis Hamilton who was ultimately victorious, matching Juan Manuel Fangio's tally of titles with a 4th placed finish in Mexico.
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I think any reasonable chance of Sauber finishing in front of Force India requires the Force India cars to finish outside of the points a minimum of 3 times. Not impossible, but fairly unlikely. That said, that's precisely what they managed across the USA-Mexico weekends! 9 point to 4 in favour of Sauber.
Still, Sauber's hopes would depend on Leclerc, and circumstance.
I did some math. Given Ferrari has to gain 13 points on Mercedes to stay in the WCC race, this is what Mercedes needs to achieve at Brazil to seal the WCC:
Mercedes is WCC in Brazil if:
Mercedes win the race with one car (doesn't matter what the other does)
Mercedes finish 2nd and 3rd
Mercedes finish 2nd and 4th
Mercedes finish 2nd and 5th
Anything other than that, and it's conditional, meaning it depends if Ferrari optimize their result or not. I.e. Mercedes could be WCC if they finish 3rd and 4th, but only if Ferrari doesn't win the race.
Not for nothing, Rosberg's Championship is the only thing that lends credibility to Hamilton's recent success. Otherwise, he'd just be the guy who's had the best car. — bhall II #Team44 supporter
If Mercedes finish 5th and 7th (or 4th and 8th; 3rd and 10th) in both races, it doesn't matter what Ferrari do, even if Ferrari manage a double 1-2.
Mercedes have never scored less than 31 points across 2 consecutive races in the V6 era; Spain-Monaco 2016, which unsurprisingly, involved a double DNF. That sequence also involved a race win, so no help to Ferrari there.
To put it further in perspective, Ferrari haven't managed a 1-2 finish this year; Hungary 2017 being the last such instance.
It's another one of those outcomes that requires at least 1 DNF to be practically feasible; 2 to be realistic; in conjunction with Ferrari scoring close to - if not - maximum points.
Even assuming 4 DNFs, Ferrari have only recorded 56 points, or more, less than half the time when assessing across consecutive races.
Of course, if the Mercedes were to DNF every remaining race entry, Ferrari would benefit by placing higher, and I'd be confident of their winning in those circumstances!
