2019 performance speculation

[dans79]

I don't think Newey will get anything wrong, but I expect he will try and over shrink wrap the car as he has since his McLaren days. This will most likely lead to cooling and thus reliability issues for the Honda PU.

If the normal continues this will be the case at the first test and Fixed by the 2nd test

The difference being this time, Honda will work with them to overcome cooling issues through all means, rather than tell them, this is the engine you get, do what you like.

That assumes Newey is willing to compromise. keep in mind That he has been doing this long before the start of the V6 Era. It happened a lot in the V8 as well, people just seem to overlook it because RBR/Renault where winning at the time. Valencia 2012 is a prime example.

[Juzh]

If the normal continues this will be the case at the first test and Fixed by the 2nd test

The difference being this time, Honda will work with them to overcome cooling issues through all means, rather than tell them, this is the engine you get, do what you like.

That assumes Newey is willing to compromise. keep in mind That he has been doing this long before the start of the V6 Era. It happened a lot in the V8 as well, people just seem to overlook it because RBR/Renault where winning at the time. Valencia 2012 is a prime example.

2012 Valencia incident was due to renault supplied alternator, which also failed on grosjean's car. In 2013 red bull switched to mclaren supplied alternators and had more or less bulletproof reliability (on vettel's car at least).

[dans79]

2012 Valencia incident was due to renault supplied alternator, which also failed on grosjean's car. In 2013 red bull switched to mclaren supplied alternators and had more or less bulletproof reliability (on vettel's car at least).

They failed because they overheated.

https://scarbsf1.wordpress.com/2012/06/ ... -failures/

As White explains “it is a Renault part. We use various suppliers for the sub-internals but we build the alternators so we are responsible for the integrity of the part.” White continues and confirms the cause of the failures “It appears that both alternators overheated. We’ve checked over the parts thoroughly now and it seems that there were no obvious reasons for the failure, so we are conducting further tests on the dyno at Viry to replicate conditions and double checking the findings”.

White goes on to explain the failure was already a known problem for Red Bull in the race “We had evidence that the alternator on Sebastian’s car was showing signs of overheating before the safety car period. Of course, when Sebastian went back up to racing speed the problem stepped up again and the result is now well known”.
In contrast to the forewarning of the Red Bull failure, the Lotus problem came on more quickly “With Romain’s, the problem occurred very suddenly some laps after the safety car had been withdrawn.”

When you pack an f1 car to tight, they become prone to overheating issues!


edit:
Vettel also lost two alternators in Monza due to overheating (fp3 and race), and Webber lost his alternator and KRS in Austin.

[carisi2k]

Start 2019:

Ferrari
Merc
--------
Red Bull
--------
Sauber
Renault
--------
--------
RPFI
Haas
Mclaren
--------
--------
Williams
Toro Rosso


End 2019:

Merc
Red Bull
Ferrari
--------
--------
Sauber
Renault
Mclaren
--------
--------
RPFI
Haas
Williams
--------
--------
Toro Rosso

you got the top 3 right and then you just went down hill. Renault should move ahead of the mid - tail end charlies or else they should just quit. After Renault you will probably have racing point and haas, sauber will probably move down the order without leclerc as I don't think Kimi is capable of bring a chassis forward at his age if it isn't good to begin with. Expect Mclaren, Toro Rosso and Williams at the end mainly down to poor chassis performance and nothing at all to do with engines.

[Zynerji]

I'm going all-in and saying that Toro Rosso will finish 4th this year.

If they hit the magic combination with the Red Bull parts, they may even finish higher. If Red Bull is in a tight fight and Toro Rosso is close enough to take points off the Rival, the investment in STR will be quick and very large.

STR is the 2019 Dark Horse.

[GPR-A]

In that case, instead of taking only 8 or 10 PUs next season, STR should target using fresh new PU every single race and give a whack!

- McLaren would most likely be the 4th best team next year. They switched the focus to the next year's car in the middle of last season. Renault reliability is going to continue to be a big Achilles heals.
- Renault will have a very strong driver pairing and if they can manage to fix the PU and build a decent chassis, they will be the biggest bottleneck in the midfield.
- Williams also shifted their focus to next year quite early. They would also have decent pair of drivers, who are most certainly half a second quicker than the previous pair (easy peasy).
- RPFI have a fresh injection of funds for development and with the kind of strong technical team they have, they can only come out stronger. Perez should be happy that he would get an inferior team mate, unlike past seasons.
- Sauber with the Alfa Romeo money, should build well on top of what they managed last year.
- Hopefully Haas manages to pull the same trick like last year and bring SF71H as the new Haas 2019.

With that, the mid-field is going to be watertight and STR are the only ones with probably weaker set of drivers and a vulnerable PU manufacturer.

[ME4ME]

In that case, instead of taking only 8 or 10 PUs next season, STR should target using fresh new PU every single race and give a whack!

- McLaren would most likely be the 4th best team next year. They switched the focus to the next year's car in the middle of last season. Renault reliability is going to continue to be a big Achilles heals.
- Renault will have a very strong driver pairing and if they can manage to fix the PU and build a decent chassis, they will be the biggest bottleneck in the midfield.
- Williams also shifted their focus to next year quite early. They would also have decent pair of drivers, who are most certainly half a second quicker than the previous pair (easy peasy).
- RPFI have a fresh injection of funds for development and with the kind of strong technical team they have, they can only come out stronger. Perez should be happy that he would get an inferior team mate, unlike past seasons.
- Sauber with the Alfa Romeo money, should build well on top of what they managed last year.
- Hopefully Haas manages to pull the same trick like last year and bring SF71H as the new Haas 2019.

With that, the mid-field is going to be watertight and STR are the only ones with probably weaker set of drivers and a vulnerable PU manufacturer.

Respecting your opinion here, but might I ask why you hold Mclaren and Williams so high and believe they improve to the extent that Mclaren become the leaders of the midfield and beat the works Renault-team, yet you do not believe in the Honda project? As far as evidence goes, Honda's progress has been more evident than either Mclaren or Williams. Mclaren will even have to do without their main point-scoring driver of recent years.

Of course the public does not see what goes on inside the teams, so yes on the basis that a team has switched focus to 2019 early they could make more progress than is evident from the outside. However such opinion is more based on hope than anything. Both teams in question are tasked with not only getting themself out of a self-dug pit. They are also up against the Renault works team with arguably the strongest driver lineup in the midfield, a cash-injected Force India team, and a Ferrari-Alfa Romeo backed Sauber team.

I do think that Toro Rosso and Haas will struggle. They are both hit-or-miss teams, especially Toro Rosso is very weak in converting pace to points. I think Mclaren at least will solidly beat both those teams. Wiliams will remain at the back in my opinion, they just have too big a gap to bridge over a single winter.

What I actually think will make the difference next year in a tightly packed mid-field is the driver pairing of each team. I'm not impressed with most teams driver line-ups, many have at least one weak or unproven driver. Thats why I think Renault will be in no-mans land and easily claim fourth in the constructers, possible even switching onto 2020-development early in the season in order to make further inroads on the top teams.

[Wouter]

STR are the only ones with probably weaker set of drivers and a vulnerable PU manufacturer.

May I ask on what do you base that ? Can you substantiate that?

[NathanOlder]

Well Honda is a vulnerable power unit. As proven for the last 4yrs. Of the the 2 teams running that power unit, Toro Rosso have Albon and Kvyat, whereas Red Bull have Max and Gasly.

So I'd say he's spot on.

[Zynerji]

Well Honda is a vulnerable power unit. As proven for the last 4yrs. Of the the 2 teams running that power unit, Toro Rosso have Albon and Kvyat, whereas Red Bull have Max and Gasly.

So I'd say he's spot on.

The STR14 is going to be the RB15Lite.

Honda used all of 2018 as an in season test, and had no intention of holding to 3 engines, just constant iteration.

Kvyat is capable of podiums as his RBR record shows.

I think STR has everything in 2019 to be a huge surprise. I mean, look at how well Haas had gone, and the expectation is that RBR will help STR at a level that Ferrari couldn't help Haas.

If the RBR clone that is operated by STR can be within 2 tenths over a lap to the senior team, they can definitely reach for 4th in the constructors.

[NathanOlder]

Well Honda is a vulnerable power unit. As proven for the last 4yrs. Of the the 2 teams running that power unit, Toro Rosso have Albon and Kvyat, whereas Red Bull have Max and Gasly.

So I'd say he's spot on.

The STR14 is going to be the RB15Lite.

Honda used all of 2018 as an in season test, and had no intention of holding to 3 engines, just constant iteration.

Kvyat is capable of podiums as his RBR record shows.

I think STR has everything in 2019 to be a huge surprise. I mean, look at how well Haas had gone, and the expectation is that RBR will help STR at a level that Ferrari couldn't help Haas.

If the RBR clone that is operated by STR can be within 2 tenths over a lap to the senior team, they can definitely reach for 4th in the constructors.

I see what you're saying, but you could easily say Honda have had 4yrs of testing and have still been under performing, Kvyat was thrown out by Red Bull and Toro Rosso before and only came back in my opinion because Toro Rosso had no one else to take.

I'm not saying that Toro Rosso can't surprise, I'm just saying everything GPR-A said was pretty accurate. Honda and the 2 Toro Rosso drivers have had more failure than success in the Hybrid era.

[techman]

2019 performance. i still think top 3 is the same like this year. redbull will be third again. TR will be around 5th or 6th fastest and mclaren dropping below 6th.

[Zynerji]

Understood.

The RB14 was making up and winning with a largely underpowered engine. As long as the Honda doesn't blow up, they should finish no lower than third in 2019.

Im very interested to see what STR pulls out, as the last time they had a Newey car, they won Monza, and damn near won Japan.

[Big Tea]

Well Honda is a vulnerable power unit. As proven for the last 4yrs. Of the the 2 teams running that power unit, Toro Rosso have Albon and Kvyat, whereas Red Bull have Max and Gasly.

So I'd say he's spot on.

The STR14 is going to be the RB15Lite.

Honda used all of 2018 as an in season test, and had no intention of holding to 3 engines, just constant iteration.

Kvyat is capable of podiums as his RBR record shows.

I think STR has everything in 2019 to be a huge surprise. I mean, look at how well Haas had gone, and the expectation is that RBR will help STR at a level that Ferrari couldn't help Haas.

If the RBR clone that is operated by STR can be within 2 tenths over a lap to the senior team, they can definitely reach for 4th in the constructors.

I see what you're saying, but you could easily say Honda have had 4yrs of testing and have still been under performing, Kvyat was thrown out by Red Bull and Toro Rosso before and only came back in my opinion because Toro Rosso had no one else to take.

I'm not saying that Toro Rosso can't surprise, I'm just saying everything GPR-A said was pretty accurate. Honda and the 2 Toro Rosso drivers have had more failure than success in the Hybrid era.

To be fair, you have to ask why Kvyat was "thrown out by Red Bull".

Was it lack of performance, or some other reason? I think he was doing OK as his own driver, it is 'deducting' from a more high profile driver that was his downfall.

Red Bull have their own agenda, and at the time he did not fit in. But in comparison to many other drivers he did well for his rank and time. He upset the Red Bull apple cart by being only slightly as aggressive as MAX, while not being the poster man.

[NathanOlder]

Very true, he was still dumped by Toro Rosso though and when Hartley ends up in his seat, it shows how low they rated him.