2019 performance speculation

[godlameroso]

1st half of season:
Interchangeable between
1.Ferrari
2.Mercedes
With Mercedes having a nice gap midway through the season.

On their own again
3.Red Bull

Race pace will be better for McLaren, but the Renault will outqualify them repeatedly, again. This allows McLaren to be outqualified by other teams despite having a stronger car.
4.Renault
5.McLaren

The bottom 5 will be interchangeable and will be fighting for points.
6.Williams
7.Sauber
8.Haas
9.TR
10.Racing point

2nd Half
Interchangeable
1.McLaren
2.Red Bull
3.Ferrari

Slight gap
4.Renault
5.Mercedes

Interchangeable
6-10

[ME4ME]

With all these lists being posted, can anyone -and with all due respect to the team- write down a solid argument for why Williams would beat another team and not be last in 2019?

Because last year they had the worst driver lineup in history, this year a very good one, and because this will be first 100% Paddy Lowe car.

Paddy Lowe will want to build a "spaceship" again (like Mclaren days)... And fail miserably... Don't get you're hopes up.

I don't buy the Paddy Lowe argument either. In fact I don't generally think its very intelligent to either blame or credit a single person, being it high ranked or not, within a huge organization on the success or the lack thereof.

Anyway, drivers: I do think George Russel is a star in the making. I think he is the real deal, much more so than Norris. But he'll need some time to get up to speed obviously. Kubica I think is overrated but time will tell. Overall I dont think Williams has a stronger driver lineup than any other team, besides possibly Toro Rosso.

What will kill Williams' chances this season:
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/real ... %5B0%5D=13

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/mcla ... d/4322309/

So a massive reduction of income and rival teams getting boosted through partnerships. Even if Williams would do a good job with what they have, I don't see them having the resources and especially time to get themselfs out of the hole that they dug last year.

[GoranF1]

Because last year they had the worst driver lineup in history, this year a very good one, and because this will be first 100% Paddy Lowe car.

Paddy Lowe will want to build a "spaceship" again (like Mclaren days)... And fail miserably... Don't get you're hopes up.

I don't buy the Paddy Lowe argument either. In fact I don't generally think its very intelligent to either blame or credit a single person, being it high ranked or not, within a huge organization on the success or the lack thereof.

Anyway, drivers: I do think George Russel is a star in the making. I think he is the real deal, much more so than Norris. But he'll need some time to get up to speed obviously. Kubica I think is overrated but time will tell. Overall I dont think Williams has a stronger driver lineup than any other team, besides possibly Toro Rosso.

What will kill Williams' chances this season:
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/real ... %5B0%5D=13

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/mcla ... d/4322309/

So a massive reduction of income and rival teams getting boosted through partnerships. Even if Williams would do a good job with what they have, I don't see them having the resources and especially time to get themselfs out of the hole that they dug last year.

If you take Kubica injury aside, why would you think he's overrated?
Are you very young?

[ME4ME]

If you take Kubica injury aside, why would you think he's overrated?
Are you very young?

I think it's quite telling that both Renault and Williams thoroughly tested him and both came to the conclusion that he wasn't their strongest option. Until of course Williams lost the majority of their backing and FOM income for 2019 and Kubica found increased financial backing from his Polish sponsor.

[marmer]

If you take Kubica injury aside, why would you think he's overrated?
Are you very young?

I think it's quite telling that both Renault and Williams thoroughly tested him and both came to the conclusion that he wasn't their strongest option. Until of course Williams lost the majority of their backing and FOM income for 2019 and Kubica found increased financial backing from his Polish sponsor.

i suspect renault didn't think they would get carlos so soon to replace palmer. so you can understand them picking him instead of robert. Williams just saw the cash with sirgi and publically just use the excuse of a slightly less than imprissive end of season test although even thats debatable as to if robert was mainly on longer runs and had less time in the car building up to the test.

[mclaren111]

Race pace will be better for McLaren, but the Renault will outqualify them repeatedly, again. This allows McLaren to be outqualified by other teams despite having a stronger car.
4.Renault
5.McLaren

The bottom 5 will be interchangeable and will be fighting for points.
6.Williams
7.Sauber
8.Haas
9.TR
10.Racing point

2nd Half
Interchangeable
1.McLaren
2.Red Bull
3.Ferrari

Slight gap
4.Renault
5.Mercedes

Interchangeable
6-10[/quote]


I like you're thinking & optimism for 2nd Half...

[GPR-A]

Let me deduce with some hypothetical numbers (all qualifying).

1st half of season:
Interchangeable between
1.Ferrari
2.Mercedes +0.2
With Mercedes having a nice gap midway through the season.

On their own again
3.Red Bull +0.5

Race pace will be better for McLaren, but the Renault will outqualify them repeatedly, again. This allows McLaren to be outqualified by other teams despite having a stronger car.
4.Renault +0.8
5.McLaren +1.0

2nd Half
Interchangeable
1.McLaren
2.Red Bull +0.2
3.Ferrari +0.3

Slight gap
4.Renault +0.6
5.Mercedes +0.8

So you are saying,
1. McLaren would close the gap of around a second to Ferrari and then open over a quarter of second gap, assuming Ferrari doesn't make any progress.
2. Red Bull closes half a second gap to Ferrari and then open a tenth of gap to them (almost evens).
5. Mercedes goes from being around 2 tenths down on Ferrari to over half a second down on them AND close to a second behind McLaren.

McLaren makes leaps and bounds of progress.
Red Bull makes surprising progress.
Ferrari doesn't make any progress.
Mercedes goes backwards.

That seems entirely plausible. Give me the address please. Let me buy some too.

[bauc]

Unfortunately, I see another season dominated by Mercedes, but for the sports sake I hope I'm wrong.

Most interesting will be the battle between Renault, Haas, FI, Mclaren & Sauber for the 4-5-6 spot in the constructors, I'm afraid Williams will hit another all time low and STR will just be Honda's development test bench with a few points here and there.

[turbof1]

I see a bit of an issue for Mercedes. They had conceptionally wise the same front wing since 2014/2015. That was a front wing they understood to the fibre. Since that's now scratched, they might end up with a front wing they don't understand quite as good, or hit correlation issues. Other teams who have been throwing concepts around a few times in the past few years might have more flexibility in that regard.

[Capharol]

There are too many things to consider before you conclude that the RB14 rear elements are actually going to help TR next year.

and there are too many things to consider before you conclude that it WON'T work aswell.
RB has have the fastest car, chassis-wise, in the last few years, TR did made there own parts and see where they landet.

So i guess it's pretty sure to say the parts that TR gets from RB will help them way more as they did design there own parts

[turbof1]

There are too many things to consider before you conclude that the RB14 rear elements are actually going to help TR next year.

and there are too many things to consider before you conclude that it WON'T work aswell.
RB has have the fastest car, chassis-wise, in the last few years, TR did made there own parts and see where they landet.

So i guess it's pretty sure to say the parts that TR gets from RB will help them way more as they did design there own parts

Yes, but those parts are limited. There are rules in place to prevent getting the whole IP. Also, red bull did miss the target at times. For instance, in 2017 they got the bargeboards wrong at the beginning of the season. In 2014 they had a very good chassis, but mercedes had the better one. In 2015, Red Bull did get their aero wrong.

Overall, I do agree Red Bull generally has a very good chassis. They had the best one last year certainly (although one can say they also compromised on reliability). But, that's not a guarantee they will coming season. There's no real guarantee for that any team for sure, and Red Bull also can get it wrong. On top of that, we get an aero reset on the front so that will limit parts transfer from RBR to TR further.

[NathanOlder]

I see a bit of an issue for Mercedes. They had conceptionally wise the same front wing since 2014/2015. That was a front wing they understood to the fibre. Since that's now scratched, they might end up with a front wing they don't understand quite as good, or hit correlation issues. Other teams who have been throwing concepts around a few times in the past few years might have more flexibility in that regard.

Or Mercedes understood it so well, they knew they had the best performing FW, others spent years messing around trying to find a sweetspot but never did. Mercedes could start 2019 with the best front end.

Not changing much for 5yrs can be seen both ways.

[Capharol]

Yes, but those parts are limited. There are rules in place to prevent getting the whole IP. Also, red bull did miss the target at times. For instance, in 2017 they got the bargeboards wrong at the beginning of the season. In 2014 they had a very good chassis, but mercedes had the better one. In 2015, Red Bull did get their aero wrong.

Overall, I do agree Red Bull generally has a very good chassis. They had the best one last year certainly (although one can say they also compromised on reliability). But, that's not a guarantee they will coming season. There's no real guarantee for that any team for sure, and Red Bull also can get it wrong. On top of that, we get an aero reset on the front so that will limit parts transfer from RBR to TR further.

agreed on the limited parts, agreed on the case that RB, not always got there ducks on a row at the beginning of a season(this was because Newey didn't helped from the beginning, and jumped in after Barcelona), but they always ended up with a top chassis at the 2nd part of the season.

of course they can make mistakes with the 2019 regulation, but Ferrari, Mercedes, Sauber, McLaren could do that aswell

[turbof1]

I see a bit of an issue for Mercedes. They had conceptionally wise the same front wing since 2014/2015. That was a front wing they understood to the fibre. Since that's now scratched, they might end up with a front wing they don't understand quite as good, or hit correlation issues. Other teams who have been throwing concepts around a few times in the past few years might have more flexibility in that regard.

Or Mercedes understood it so well, they knew they had the best performing FW, others spent years messing around trying to find a sweetspot but never did. Mercedes could start 2019 with the best front end.

Not changing much for 5yrs can be seen both ways.

I can't judge the wing performance. Clearly it worked for them, and others changed more clearly because they weren't happy with the performance. That's neither the point. Dealing with a wholesome change can be more easy for teams having gone through changes in the recent past, being a bit more flexible.

Of course, neither is a guarantee for getting things right or wrong.

[Juzh]

What about laptimes? We've heard drivers saying downforce will be more of less equal, but the front wing is getting a serious nerf even with the extra width. Outwashing potential is severely limited. I predict at least 1s slower cars on average during quali. We don't know what pirelli will bring to the table, but from their ramblings late last year I expect them to go more conservative for 2019, kinda like 2017 where most tires could go race distance easily. That would probably make race pace on par with 2018, also helped by extra fuel available.