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This team and their drivers won the WDC and the WCC the previous five seasons. They have perhaps the largest budget and staff. So why won't they take a sixth?
I think realisticly we'll end up with something like this:
Hamilton
Vettel
Leclerc
Verstappen Bottas
With #2, 3 and 4 in whatever order. That would mean that Hamilton would secure the WDC and given the amount of points rewarded for each win, he'll likely secure the WCC for the team as well. But only just. So I'm not voting
This team and their drivers won the WDC and the WCC the previous five seasons. They have perhaps the largest budget and staff. So why won't they take a sixth?
Ehm, you're missing the obvious option:
none. Mercedes will win in 2019 again like a boss.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"
They will if Vettel does (again) crack under pressure and if Ferrari and RedBull didn't improve their package (and thus the mercs performance is inferior). I'm not sure how LeClerc and Gasly will perform, so no guessing about the WCC right now.
Except for Vettel, there isn't a single soul in Ferrari who has the experience of putting together a title winning season. Contrary to that, both Mercedes and Red Bull have a number of people in their ranks who have that crucial experience. Unfortunately for Red Bull, neither of their protagonist drivers have ever been part of a championship contention and are completely unaware of the psychological challenge it brings. Plus, they are going with a new PU, which quite frankly, can't be at a level of a Merc or a Ferrari PU.
Mounting a title challenge for such a long season requires enormous mental strength and an ability to keep the heads calm across a 1000+ member organization (Racing and PU teams included). For both 2017 and 2018, arguably, Ferrari produced the better car, but their campaign went southwards as the pressure of the challenge gripped them.
Mercedes have the proven ability to solve their in-season problems with efficient solutions which keeps taking their campaign forwards. Last year, Ferrari's upgrades failed in Singapore and the reversal of the upgrades made the car faster again, but by that time the Championship slipped out. So, there would be self-doubts and questions marks with regards to their in-season development.
The hot-headed Verstappen is not ready for the championship challenge. Period. He has won races with the all or nothing attitude that would kill anyone's credible championship challenge. He doesn't know how to live for another day by bringing the best possible results on a tough day. Quite frankly, he is no Hamilton to be capable of challenging for title in his rookie year or early years of his F1 career. He might win, if the car is miles ahead of the competition, like a 2011 or 2013 car as he is a very good qualifier.
Gasly is inexperienced and an unknown quantity.
There is one interesting statistic that currently stands completely against Leclerc. While Vettel has put forward the best record in 2018 for putting together best sectors in one hot lap in Q3. Which is essentially, stitching together the best sectors times on that one critical lap. Not even Hamilton managed that (despite bolting most poles) and Leclerc hasn't managed that in Sauber! While he beat his team mate, but his best lap could have been better based on his best sector times, which didn't come in one lap. When he would go head to head with Vettel, it remains to be seen if he can stitch together his best times in one lap. Vettel has generally been a better qualifier over the year. If Vettel manages to qualify ahead and finish the first lap ahead of Leclerc, it is given that Vettel will finish the race ahead.
Would Mercedes, despite boasting of all the required strengths, come out once again with an inferior car? That is the big question that we would wait to see what the answer is going to be. They have a driver who is not just extremely talented, but is battle hardened in winning the seasons, coming from behind. It's an asset of a quality which only Vettel has experienced. In the history of F1, there have been numerous seasons where the faster car didn't end up winning the season. It's all the other aspects of racing and execution that matter more, along with the car itself.
So, the odds are stacked up with Mercedes for another title double. Will Ferrari overcome the nerves of the inexperience of winning championship challenge, if they come out of the stronger car? If their car is just on par with Mercedes, it wouldn't be difficult to conclude who would end up winning.
It seems that many are falling victim to the gamblers fallacy when contemplating the odds of Mercedes winning one or both titles again. The implication is that the odds of Mercedes winning one or both championships are less than they would be had they not have won the five previous driver's and constructor's title. Just because the roulette ball landed on red the last ten times, the odds of it landing on black this time don't change.
Wazari wrote:
There's a saying in Japan, He might be higher than testicles on a giraffe...........
Execpt that in F1 recent past performance does give some indication of likely furture performance as if you had a title winning car last season then you are more likely to have one the following season esepcially if you have the same lead driver as the cars are developments of the previous car. Whereas with roulette each roll of the ball is completely random and unifluenced at all by the previous roll.
In F1, winning more yhan two titles back-to-back is rare. Winning more than three is rarer, more than 4 is rarer still, more than 5 has only happened once since 1958. So the fact Mercedes have 5 on the bounce is not much of a guarantee that they'll get number 6.
If you are more fortunate than others, build a larger table not a taller fence.
Vettel has what he needs. A fast car out of reach of anyone. When he is at the front he is devastating. I don't think Lewis can make up for such a car defeficit (0.5 seconds). Leclerc will be interesting but while he has the speed he doesnt have the experience to contend with Vettel in the race and in the Team.
It is clear from testing that Mercedes handling troubles have truly caught up them. I can't see them recovering this one when the Ferrari is looking so strong carrying forward their 2018 concepts.
I'm not saying Mercedes will win, but in my mind they're still favourites. I just don't get why so many people seem to think Ferrari are clear favourites this season, there's not a single evidence of that so far.
Vettel has what he needs. A fast car out of reach of anyone. When he is at the front he is devastating. I don't think Lewis can make up for such a car defeficit (0.5 seconds). Leclerc will be interesting but while he has the speed he doesnt have the experience to contend with Vettel in the race and in the Team.
It is clear from testing that Mercedes handling troubles have truly caught up them. I can't see them recovering this one when the Ferrari is looking so strong carrying forward their 2018 concepts.
Pretty bold prediction.
Ferrari are in a good spot now, but I'm not ready to call the title in favor of anyone after 4 days of testing in unrepresentative conditions.
If the actual gap is 0.5s, that's easy for Mercedes to close up with development. Ferrari's inability to develop their car last year is what cost them the title. By the time they reverted to the older spec parts, the championship was lost.
On a side note, what do you mean by handling troubles?
I'm not saying Mercedes will win, but in my mind they're still favourites. I just don't get why so many people seem to think Ferrari are clear favourites this season, there's not a single evidence of that so far.
Horner stated it and Toto admitted it! Isn't that enough?
