2019 performance speculation

[FrukostScones]

The final verdict:

FER, fast but fragile.
RB, stealthy but Dr. Marko is soooooooooooooooooooo happy.
MERC, built 2 cars, still graining.

REN, dark horse with a bit of yellow.
HAAS, powered by haas antlers .
McLaren, hopefully this good.
Alfa, reliability will be poor, nice FW though.
TR, more Alfa FW than Ferrari.
RACING. maybe better after a few races.

Williams. Why?

[Peter1919]

My Prediction for initial pecking order after seeing the results of testing

1. Ferrari
2. Merc
3. Redbull
4. Renault
5. McLaren
6. Haas
7. Alfa
8. Torro Rosso
9. Racing Point
10. Williams

However I think 4th to 9th are very close to each other and really could end the season in just about any order although i think it likely Renault and McLaren might improve most as the season goes on as they have the most resources to develop in season (and Mclaren don't have a dog of a car like last season)

[Big Tea]

Just for fun, I thought I would mention that so far the cars have not had to meet the regs they will have to for a race.

There could be all sorts of minor tweaks or even complaints, up held or investigated, by the first race.

[godlameroso]

Haas is scary quick.

[Manoah2u]

I'd say Hamilton probably will bag 2019 championship too.

Mercedes is still very strong and fast. Bottas will be Hammy's wingman again, no doubt.
Ferrari is possibly faster than Mercedes, but they were in 2018 too and they ruined those chances too. LeClerc will be fast and battle Vettel, which will take points away from Vettel's chances where Bottas bows.
Meanwhile RedBull is also right up there, and Verstappen is fast, but the Honda engine is still lacking just a bit, and he's gonna be in fights with Vettel which will result in crashes and thus Hamilton and LeClerc will happily take the points.
Gasly is Verstappen's wingman so he's not going to be there.

after the top 3 we'll see:

Haas vs Renault vs Mclaren

then we get

Alfa Romeo vs Racing Point vs Toro Rosso

and dead last, by far

Williams. who will be lapped 2 or 3 laps each race the minimum.

[djos]

Haas is scary quick.

Haas did look quick but Renault will beat them over them over the season due to the quality and consistency of their drivers.

[HPD]

This is my first and last speculation. I do not want to change every time, if I'm wrong, then I'm wrong!

Mercedes
Red Bull
Ferrari
Renault
Alfa
Hass
Toro Rosso
Mclaren
Racing Point
Williams

It's not just about being quick in tests.
There are teams that evolve faster than others.
There are fast teams with weak pilots.
There are slow teams with star pilots.

[godlameroso]

McLaren has a very good base, I expect them to improve the car steadily and faster than other midfielders.

[Phil]

Mercedes is still very strong and fast. Bottas will be Hammy's wingman again, no doubt.
Ferrari is possibly faster than Mercedes, but they were in 2018 too and they ruined those chances too. LeClerc will be fast and battle Vettel, which will take points away from Vettel's chances where Bottas bows.
Meanwhile RedBull is also right up there, and Verstappen is fast, but the Honda engine is still lacking just a bit, and he's gonna be in fights with Vettel which will result in crashes and thus Hamilton and LeClerc will happily take the points.

I see Verstappen playing the dark horse too. But not with Vettel, but rather with Hamilton. This is building on the presumption that Ferrari is quicker and crucially has that edge in qualifying. This will result in Vettel starting ahead of Hamilton more often than not, which will give him that buffer towards Verstappen. Verstappen of course will be as aggressive as ever and IMO this will hurt whoever will not be starting on pole or the first row.

[selvam_e2002]

Mercedes is still very strong and fast. Bottas will be Hammy's wingman again, no doubt.
Ferrari is possibly faster than Mercedes, but they were in 2018 too and they ruined those chances too. LeClerc will be fast and battle Vettel, which will take points away from Vettel's chances where Bottas bows.
Meanwhile RedBull is also right up there, and Verstappen is fast, but the Honda engine is still lacking just a bit, and he's gonna be in fights with Vettel which will result in crashes and thus Hamilton and LeClerc will happily take the points.

I see Verstappen playing the dark horse too. But not with Vettel, but rather with Hamilton. This is building on the presumption that Ferrari is quicker and crucially has that edge in qualifying. This will result in Vettel starting ahead of Hamilton more often than not, which will give him that buffer towards Verstappen. Verstappen of course will be as aggressive as ever and IMO this will hurt whoever will not be starting on pole or the first row.

I don't think so... with Honda Engine he could not challenge for 3rd place compared to last year. RBR + Honda may be qualify between 7 to 10. So your theory would be wrong. You will see in two weeks time.

[Just_a_fan]

I see Verstappen playing the dark horse too. But not with Vettel, but rather with Hamilton. This is building on the presumption that Ferrari is quicker and crucially has that edge in qualifying. This will result in Vettel starting ahead of Hamilton more often than not, which will give him that buffer towards Verstappen. Verstappen of course will be as aggressive as ever and IMO this will hurt whoever will not be starting on pole or the first row.

I could see Hamilton letting Verstappen chase Vettel in such situations. Letting your two main rivals fight each other and possibly crashing out is not a bad way to quietly take points.

[Phil]

I was more thinking of a scenario where Vettel (or Leclerc) starts from pole and Hamilton ahead of Verstappen. A lot can happen at the start and in such situations, I can see a very aggressive Verstappen trying to get himself into a good position given the car might lack that "race pace". In such situations, Hamilton may end up behind Verstappen while Vettel would have a relative quiet race disappearing into the horizon. I didn't mean necessarily "tangling" as in crashing - more one holding up the other.

I also think RedBull has always been very cunning where race strategy are concerned. If they have two cars in a position for a potential podium, they won't favor one driver over the other but use strategy to force the hand of the team they are racing. Mercedes and Ferrari may both have different considerations to make, given they are likely the two teams fighting for the WDC. They might (and will be) more protective of their "number 1".

In anycase; I think RedBull with or without issues with Honda will be easily a top 3 car. If Ferrari have a sizeable performance advantage, this will translate to first row starts. Mercedes will probably easily be 2nd best in QF (that Mercedes will IMO still have an amazing QF performance, especially vs Honda/Renault), but starts within 'the pack' will always be more difficult, especially if Verstappen is starting right behind or next to you.

[digitalrurouni]

I have a feeling this year will be even more intense. There is no way I see Ferrari allowing LeClerc to get ahead of Vettel. I mean look at Monza last year. I think Bottas will still be a wingman. He hasn't seen to be impressive at all to me. Lewis and Vettel are on par but their teammates are not. LeClerc way better than Bottas. Bottas is reliable that's about it. Last year has shown he doesn't have the killer instinct. If he hadn't had such subpar performances Mercedes would not have had to back Hamilton so early in the season. Especially that one race where the allowed Lewis to take the win and told Bottas to shuffle back to second. Forgetting which one. Team orders will be way more in play and way earlier this season. That's my prediction. Can't wait for Albert Park!!!!

[Just_a_fan]

I have a feeling this year will be even more intense. There is no way I see Ferrari allowing LeClerc to get ahead of Vettel.

If Vettel has to fight Leclerc for points, then Ferrari will lose out. If Leclerc is as fast as some think, then Ferrari will have to make him number 2 to Vettel. If Vettel is pressured by Leclerc, I can see them coming together and costing wins/points. Unless the team have laid donw these rules already, Vettel will feel the need to impose himself on Leclerc in a way that he didn't with Kimi and Hamilton probably doesn't need to with Bottas - Bottas probably already "knows his place".

Of course, if Bottas has a blinding start to the season, we could see Hamilton under pressure for a change. That could be a defining moment for his "legacy".

Internecine clashes could make this another 2007 season, one way or another, with a "Where did he come from?" title winner.

[Phil]

I really hate to be pedantic, but I see lots of people writing LeClerc. It's not. His name is Charles Leclerc. No capital 'C' in there.