2019 performance speculation

[dren]

leclerC

[Partymood]

Mercedes is still very strong and fast. Bottas will be Hammy's wingman again, no doubt.
Ferrari is possibly faster than Mercedes, but they were in 2018 too and they ruined those chances too. LeClerc will be fast and battle Vettel, which will take points away from Vettel's chances where Bottas bows.
Meanwhile RedBull is also right up there, and Verstappen is fast, but the Honda engine is still lacking just a bit, and he's gonna be in fights with Vettel which will result in crashes and thus Hamilton and LeClerc will happily take the points.

I see Verstappen playing the dark horse too. But not with Vettel, but rather with Hamilton. This is building on the presumption that Ferrari is quicker and crucially has that edge in qualifying. This will result in Vettel starting ahead of Hamilton more often than not, which will give him that buffer towards Verstappen. Verstappen of course will be as aggressive as ever and IMO this will hurt whoever will not be starting on pole or the first row.

That's how I see it too, Phil. A lot of people are saying that Vettel and Leclerc will take points away from each other, and it will probably happen. But if they are in front of Mercedes it won't make much difference. Verstappen, on the other hand, might just get in there and make it rain on Mercedes' parade.

[f1316]

I think Binotto coming out and immediately publicly stating that Ferrari will potentially give Vettel preference, even early in the season, is all you need to know.

In the last two years, when Mercedes needed to use Bottas to benefit Hamilton they were decisive - whether it was races like Spain 2017 or Monza 2018 when they compromised his strategy to slow or Ferrari or Russia 2018 when he was moved out the way entirely, the plan and the order was always very clear and very effective. There was no misunderstanding like with Kimi in Germany in 2018 and the two cars always seemed to work in tandem off the start. In short, it was just proper team management to maximise points.

Binotto I’m sure will have seen this from the pitwall and be keen to correct. He knows they have to maximise every detail to win and there’s no point in, say, spending months on a tiny bit of engine packaging to gain a hundredth, if you throw away 10 seconds because one driver on a different strategy is holding up the other ala Germany.

So I don’t see either ‘2nd’ driver holding up the other. If they put it on pole in race one and lead to victory, that’s different, but I both doubt that’ll happen and think it’s the only way they avoid getting used as backup to driver number 1.

[Just_a_fan]

I think Binotto coming out and immediately publicly stating that Ferrari will potentially give Vettel preference, even early in the season, is all you need to know.

Crazy thought experiment time.

Leclerc takes pole for the first three races and wins two of them, coming second to Vettel in the other race, Vettel having snagged Hamilton (or Verstappen etc) in one of the races and had a DNF comes second to Leclerc in the other race. Do Ferrari shovel Leclerc out of the way to help Vettel if, at the fourth race, Leclerc is leading the race and topping the championship points table with 68 points to Vettel's 43 points?

Would Ferrari want to deal with the massive negative publicity in such a situation?

[Phil]

I completely agree. Same applies to Bottas. You are as good as you are and most of the work and to what position you negotiate yourself into during the course of a season happens on Saturday.

Having said that, IMO i think Vettel is a damn good qualifier if he is in a car to his liking (which i think it will be) - so i think Vettel will be hard to beat, especially on Saturdays. I also think Melbourne will be easy for Seb; Melbourne is a street circuit, little to no run off, close walls = full confidence. I wouldnt be surprised if Charles is that bit more careful. After that however and i think it will be game on.

[f1316]

I think Binotto coming out and immediately publicly stating that Ferrari will potentially give Vettel preference, even early in the season, is all you need to know.

Crazy thought experiment time.

Leclerc takes pole for the first three races and wins two of them, coming second to Vettel in the other race, Vettel having snagged Hamilton (or Verstappen etc) in one of the races and had a DNF comes second to Leclerc in the other race. Do Ferrari shovel Leclerc out of the way to help Vettel if, at the fourth race, Leclerc is leading the race and topping the championship points table with 68 points to Vettel's 43 points?

Would Ferrari want to deal with the massive negative publicity in such a situation?

I think that if Leclerc is actually leading the championship in that kind of scenario, then no, I don’t believe they’ll move him it of the way. But, if the roles are reversed - I.e. only a short way through the season and Vettel ahead, albeit in far from an insurmountable way - then yes, I think they will move Leclerc to maximise the lead over the competition.

And I think the latter is far more likely too - Leclerc has promise but I don’t see him coming in and immediately beating Seb, not by a long shot. This isn’t a Ricciardo 2014 situation since it doesn’t coincide with a huge regulation change that, not only introduced new engines, but completely removed a style of driving with EBDs that Vettel had thoroughly adapted to.

[Tzk]

I also agree. If leclerc beats vettel, so be it. If he doesn‘t, they‘ll use him as a moving chicane, just like merc did with bottas. Smart move by Binotto to make this public right at the start of the season. So if they make use of teamorder, he can refer to this later.

I also think this doesn‘t make leclerc a #2 driver either.

[garygph]

I think in the first race or so we could see an accident prone Verstappen again after a winter of playing F1 racing games for many. many hours , then an adjustment to reality again and great results thereafter if the package delivers.

[Sevach]

I think it's crucial for Vettel to get off to a good start, the car seems excelent and his team mate is in a transition period.

If he doesn't the job becomes that much harder.

[TAG]

I think Ferrari and Vettel unravel towards the end of the season just as they have for two years running now. Leclerc if unbridled will give Vettel a lot of trouble and not just on Sunday. Same ol same ol, Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull an Renault with fifth place up in the air for any of four teams but potentially Alfa Romeo taking it due to their driving lineup.

[selvam_e2002]

if you are making a driver as number two in the first debut season then there is not way to become number 1 driver in Ferrari. Please take a look at there previous driver. Can we name any one driver he become number 1 from number 2.

[Jolle]

if you are making a driver as number two in the first debut season then there is not way to become number 1 driver in Ferrari. Please take a look at there previous driver. Can we name any one driver he become number 1 from number 2.

Villeneuve, Irvine after Schumachers mishap and Massa in ‘08.

[Phil]

if you are making a driver as number two in the first debut season then there is not way to become number 1 driver in Ferrari. Please take a look at there previous driver. Can we name any one driver he become number 1 from number 2.

Most number 2s were simply not fast enough. If Leclerc is faster in qualifying more often than not, i fail to see how he will be demoted or forced to be the defacto number 2. Same applies to Bottas; if he wants to have the full support by the team, he will need to earn that by beating Hamilton when it counts. If he fails to do that, then he will have to live with the occasional team order.

[Unf]

Most number 2s were simply not fast enough. If Leclerc is faster in qualifying more often than not, i fail to see how he will be demoted or forced to be the defacto number 2. Same applies to Bottas; if he wants to have the full support by the team, he will need to earn that by beating Hamilton when it counts. If he fails to do that, then he will have to live with the occasional team order.

Assuming that each team provide excatly the same car for both drivers... if you know what i mean.

[Phil]

I dont get the logic in a team (any team) limiting their own potential by supplying one of their drivers with a lesser car. Perhaps if parts are limited, then yes, it would be logical to ensure your better driver gets them, but beyond that, i really wouldnt know why a team might artificially support one more over the other, unless it would benefit them as a team somehow...