2019 Spanish Grand Prix - Catalunya, May 10-12

[LM10]

Imo, Ferrari has 2 issues.

• They have a tire working zone issue related to their aero and suspension design philosophy. Fixing is will require compromises and time.
• Mercedes hit the ground running in Australia, and has been improving their car every race with upgrades or an increased understanding of the car and/or the tires. Thus When Ferrari gets their issues worked out, any advantage they had 8 weeks ago might be gone.

Was Mercedes compromised once they fixed their tire issues in recent years? I don’t think so.
Ferrari don’t seem to stand still with upgrades while they’re working on their issues. So why are you sure they will only be as good as their potential they had 8 weeks ago after having fixed their problems?

[dans79]

Was Mercedes compromised once they fixed their tire issues in recent years? I don’t think so.

Imo, In 2017 and early 2018 they where flattered by Ferrari issues and mistakes. They didn't really fix their issues until they started using their special rims. Even in 2019 Lewis is quoted as saying the car is difficult to work with, or something to that effect.

So why are you sure they will only be as good as their potential they had 8 weeks ago after having fixed their problems?

That's not what I said.

All the teams are limited by CFD & wind tunnel restrictions. If Ferrari is spending 20% (random number) of their time on finding/developing a fix then it's a detriment. They can only allocate 80% towards general or circuit specific upgrades, while their competition can allocate 100%.

Thus, as I said when Ferrari gets their issues worked out, any advantage they had 8 weeks ago might be gone.

[Artur Craft]

I'm hoping Mclaren will improve enough to challenge RB...

At least no one can accuse you of not having far-fetched enough hopes

[Restomaniac]

Ah yes winter testing.

Just remind me, wasn’t that where Mercedes had 2 different cars for the 2 different weeks thus putting them miles behind Ferrari on track time and understanding their car?

I would suggest testing means 4/5ths of naff all now.

[Vasconia]

Ah yes winter testing.

Just remind me, wasn’t that where Mercedes had 2 different cars for the 2 different weeks thus putting them miles behind Ferrari on track time and understanding their car?

I would suggest testing means 4/5ths of naff all now.

I think it´s pretty clear now who made a better job understanding its car.

[Restomaniac]

Ah yes winter testing.

Just remind me, wasn’t that where Mercedes had 2 different cars for the 2 different weeks thus putting them miles behind Ferrari on track time and understanding their car?

I would suggest testing means 4/5ths of naff all now.

I think it´s pretty clear now who made a better job understanding its car.

Indeed which is why I’m talking about then but not now.

Then when you consider that Ferrari have already brought updates (plus new ones for Barcelona), Mercedes are no doubt brining updates, Ferrari have had to redesign their PU (failures and CE changes on every Ferrari PU because of which) and Temperature changes in Barcelona between February and May. The only thing that hasn’t changed is the Mercedes PU therefore going on about Winter testing is pointless.

Don’t get me wrong Ferrari could smash this weekend but going on about Winter testing is nothing more than a false flag.

[Justthatek]

Why is everyone writing Ferrari off, given that this is where Ferrari absolutely dominated the testing? If there is any circuit where they can make the tyres work and get the setup right, surely this is the one?

Didnt Ferrari dominate winter testing in 2018 only for Hamilton to smash Ferrari by 27 seconds in the GP?

[marvin78]

This so called "domination" was always only hyped by the media and some "experts".

[falonso81]

If and only if Ferrari's update package for Barcelona works from the get go, then I believe they will be close to the Mercs. That is unless Merc brings a B Spec car and annihilate everyone.

[F1Krof]

This is gonna play nicely on Ferrari's hands. They will not be affected by tyre issues.

[Slo Poke]

FER will be quickest in FP and until Q2, then Merc go 1-2 in Q3.

Interview after Q: We were nowhere in FP but overnight we suddenly found the right setup and could perform in Q. It was a huge surprise for us, too. We do not expect to be competitive in the Race, power advantage of FER blablabla.

FER and RB will fight for 3-6 the rest for the remaining places, Williams remain dead last.

Race will be the same, the Merc in front after Lap 1 will win the race. People will try to tell me it is an exciting season due to all the midfield battles.

I really hope I am wrong because if it turns out this way then I rather concentrate on other things this year, like nice family sundays etc...

At least there is some excitement regarding which Mercedes will be 1

I’m reasonably sure we’re going to see a turnaround this weekend. I honestly thought it was already on the car!
Newey’s Magic front axle is going to be a major player in fortunes from here onwards. However! There’s talk and much concern about some kind of Pirelli puzzle. That’s a myth as the tyres Pirelli are supplying are the same for everyone. It’s simply that along with the wear-rate having been manufactured out of them, so too has the durability, which renders them susceptible to damage. That aspect is of extreme importance, especially throughout qualifying, (think Mercedes.) and the drivers must never lose sight of the fact, as unavoidable blisters will be the consequence.
Ergo Blisters can not and will not be eliminated with fancy suspension tweakery. As for the up coming race and any other, logic and afore thoughts are the only other items likely to secure the desired outcome. What Ferrari must not do, is strive for something they already now have.
My use of the word, strive, is meant in the context of not seeking heat for the tyres as that will come, if the drivers respect them.
Blisters, are the result of previously inflicted damage, nothing more.

[Unf]

Another 1-2 for Mercedes and season will be closed. Sience 2018 Ferrari has only better engine, nothing more. And as we have seen better engine is definitely not enough to win championships.

[Just_a_fan]

And as we have seen better engine is definitely not enough to win championships.

S'funny, but that was what was said when Mercedes first started winning in the hybrid era - "They're only winning because they have the best engine. Their aero/chassis (delete as appropriate) is rubbish." That sort of thing was regularly spouted.

[dans79]

And as we have seen better engine is definitely not enough to win championships.

S'funny, but that was what was said when Mercedes first started winning in the hybrid era - "They're only winning because they have the best engine. Their aero/chassis (delete as appropriate) is rubbish." That sort of thing was regularly spouted.

Yep, I remember it well.

I still don't understand why so many people think so one dimensionally. In modern F1 everything is highly linked, so a superior component X alone is not enough.

[Sieper]

Williams has the same engine.

Off course nobody ever said that (or meant it in that way). They will always have meant they have a similar or slightly worse chassis but their main advantage is the engine. I still believe that to be true. Unless Merc wins Monaco this year (on merit, not due to some weird race result). Which could be the case as with the thinner tires and the simpler nose their concept (long car with low rake) seems to be comparatively well suited).

An not only Monaco but it will be a good indicator. If Merc wins on all the lower percentage full gas circuits then their chassis itself also will likely be better then that of the competitors. But even of that you can never be sure. If your engine allows you higher drag you could still fair better there whilst having a comparatively (to RBR and Ferr) slightly poorer chassis.

None of us can ever know for sure. Unless Honda suddenly makes a big HP gain or something like that. And even then the effect might be vice versa. We simply have to little hard information so any bold claim can never be defended. We are just talking about what we expect, and all within slight margins of eachother.