Pyrone89 wrote: ↑09 Aug 2019, 16:00
godlameroso wrote: ↑09 Aug 2019, 14:18
It would be very impressive, Honda just needs to add .2 of performance relative to Mercedes to give Red Bull a shot at wins on every track. Alternatively Red Bull and Honda can each find a tenth relative to Merc on their half of the package.
I honestly believe with just a little more performance on the car, that Verstappen could win every race from here on out. That Mercedes will implode once the RB15 is the better car.
Easier said than done because the Mercedes spec 3 should be a nice bump. Mercedes has the luxury of not developing this year's car any more and still take the fight to the end. So they may abandon 2019, and start working exclusively on 2020.
1. As you say Merc is also bringing PU upgrades, so we need to detract their performance gains to see the nett gain
2. It makes a lot of difference if the gains are highest engine mode only or for every engine mode (ideal) basically can you use the extra HP always or only for a couple of laps?
3. We have finally seen the real pace of the W10 in highest race pace without saving in Hungary and it was scary. Sure there was a different tyre strategy but RB and Marko have admitted they would have been unable to do the same times (article on F1maximaal today, so not talking about getting back behind after stopping, really talking about ultimate pace).
4. Mercedes have also admitted they are still finding the optimal set-up for the new upgrades.
5. Hungary suited RB relative to the competition due to the short straights
We need a lot more than 2 tenths to really bother the W10 in full race beast mode.
I don't think we need more than that. The Mercedes is still faster, in Hamilton's hands(not Bottas), but the difference isn't that great. It's not more than .3, but it's not quite .1 somewhere in between.
Last year in Spa, Verstappen finished 31 seconds off the lead. So on average was about .7 seconds slower than the winning Ferrari of Vettel. Who finished the race in 1h 23m 34.476 seconds. Assuming a .3 advantage over last year. Vettel should be able to finish the race in ideal conditions @ ~1h 23m 21.2 seconds.
Verstappen finished 31.3 seconds behind last year, again .7 seconds slower on average, this year the Red Bull has improved by 1.4 seconds on tracks with long full throttle sections like Silverstone. This would put him right on par with the pace Ferrari is expected to bring to Spa this year. I don't think Mercedes has the car to win in Spa, too much drag, and not enough slow corners for Mercedes to get a big advantage. Mercedes will be the best in turns 10, 13, and 15. Not enough to overcome the time they'll lose in sectors 1 and 2. The Red Bull is not as draggy as the Mercedes, but also has more downforce than the Ferrari, so they'll lose somewhat on the straights but not as much as Mercedes, and gain in the corners, but not as much as Mercedes. I honestly think it will be very very close once again, but I expect a much better showing from Ferrari.
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