Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[izzy]

And when I look at the entire picture, which includes the footprint required to manufacture the new vehicle and then fuel it, it would take many, many, many years before the new BEV actually became the "greener" vehicle as compared to continuing to operate the old commuter car it could replace. Granted the numbers change if we were to assume that the owner was comparing a new ICE to BEV/PHEV choices, or even used car choices. But often keeping older ICE cars balances out the higher emissions, since there aren't resources used and emissions created in the making of them.

yes so true, if you look at throwing a perfectly good ICE car into landfill as it were, in order to have an EV, it's not necessarily lower emissions overall. Still, mostly it is going to be people replacing their ICE and selling that to somebody else. And then when it's just EV vs ICE that's an easy equation

And apparently everybody wants one:

VW's new ID.3 electric car sold out in TWO DAYS in Britain at launch - and now there's a waiting list of 20,000 customers
The VW ID.3 electric car was made available to order in the UK in May 2019
This was 4 months before images and details of the car were officially revealed
First allocation of 1,500 cars were sold in 48 hours, according to a UK dealer
Vehicle waiting list is now 20,000 strong - and fears over supply have grown given the recent bottleneck in battery availability for electric cars

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/car ... -DAYS.html

[Airshifter]

I think the rush towards full electric will be larger in Europe for many years, and in the US it will lag considerably. Though it's reaching a point where EV's range will cover most of my use, until it covers all of my use it's just not going to be a consideration at all. I could easily think about a PHEV, even if the ICE power was only good for 100 HP or so. As long as I could keep driving at the speed limit it wouldn't bother me at all to have less power.

But if I've got to go 300+ miles in a day, even with the proper charging infrastructure, I'm not doing to wait around to charge.

For the old disposable commuter, I'd consider BEV, but only once they come down to a reasonable price point on the used market. I just don't spend much on a commuter regardless of what powers it.

[izzy]

I think the rush towards full electric will be larger in Europe for many years, and in the US it will lag considerably. Though it's reaching a point where EV's range will cover most of my use, until it covers all of my use it's just not going to be a consideration at all. I could easily think about a PHEV, even if the ICE power was only good for 100 HP or so. As long as I could keep driving at the speed limit it wouldn't bother me at all to have less power.

But if I've got to go 300+ miles in a day, even with the proper charging infrastructure, I'm not doing to wait around to charge.

For the old disposable commuter, I'd consider BEV, but only once they come down to a reasonable price point on the used market. I just don't spend much on a commuter regardless of what powers it.

no that's right, EV's at this point work a lot better in small countries than big ones don't they, and over here there's the EU that tends to do Good Things without worrying about getting re-elected so there's this huge 95gm/km fleet average factor. But there is awesome Elon in the USA, Tesla outselling everything in their class and leading the way, it's ironic in a way, but good

[Big Tea]

I think the rush towards full electric will be larger in Europe for many years, and in the US it will lag considerably. Though it's reaching a point where EV's range will cover most of my use, until it covers all of my use it's just not going to be a consideration at all. I could easily think about a PHEV, even if the ICE power was only good for 100 HP or so. As long as I could keep driving at the speed limit it wouldn't bother me at all to have less power.

But if I've got to go 300+ miles in a day, even with the proper charging infrastructure, I'm not doing to wait around to charge.

For the old disposable commuter, I'd consider BEV, but only once they come down to a reasonable price point on the used market. I just don't spend much on a commuter regardless of what powers it.

I'm not so sure of this. The push to reduction in oil use is not only ecological, there is a big chunk of politics involved.
There is a move away from buying from countries who were seen as 'friends' (maybe because they had all the toys, maybe not) and it is politically difficult to be hard on a country who supplies most of your oil needs. As they are no longer needed it is easier to move away from them. (I know USA has huge reserves of oil, but they are still thinking long term and not using it)

[Andres125sx]

I think the rush towards full electric will be larger in Europe for many years, and in the US it will lag considerably. Though it's reaching a point where EV's range will cover most of my use, until it covers all of my use it's just not going to be a consideration at all. I could easily think about a PHEV, even if the ICE power was only good for 100 HP or so. As long as I could keep driving at the speed limit it wouldn't bother me at all to have less power.

But if I've got to go 300+ miles in a day, even with the proper charging infrastructure, I'm not doing to wait around to charge.

For the old disposable commuter, I'd consider BEV, but only once they come down to a reasonable price point on the used market. I just don't spend much on a commuter regardless of what powers it.

I'm not so sure of this. The push to reduction in oil use is not only ecological, there is a big chunk of politics involved.
There is a move away from buying from countries who were seen as 'friends' (maybe because they had all the toys, maybe not) and it is politically difficult to be hard on a country who supplies most of your oil needs. As they are no longer needed it is easier to move away from them. (I know USA has huge reserves of oil, but they are still thinking long term and not using it)

Highlighted to aid people notice what are USA interests in the CC debate. Some say scientists have hidden interests to support CC, even when none of them were able to say what are those interests , when it´s USA and the rest who deny CC who have obvious interests to deny CC and keep using oil

It´s amazing to be forced to point this obvious reasons in 2020 after decades of these countries manipulations sincerely, but

[AJI]

I think the rush towards full electric will be larger in Europe for many years, and in the US it will lag considerably. Though it's reaching a point where EV's range will cover most of my use, until it covers all of my use it's just not going to be a consideration at all. I could easily think about a PHEV, even if the ICE power was only good for 100 HP or so. As long as I could keep driving at the speed limit it wouldn't bother me at all to have less power.

But if I've got to go 300+ miles in a day, even with the proper charging infrastructure, I'm not doing to wait around to charge.

For the old disposable commuter, I'd consider BEV, but only once they come down to a reasonable price point on the used market. I just don't spend much on a commuter regardless of what powers it.

no that's right, EV's at this point work a lot better in small countries than big ones don't they, and over here there's the EU that tends to do Good Things without worrying about getting re-elected so there's this huge 95gm/km fleet average factor. But there is awesome Elon in the USA, Tesla outselling everything in their class and leading the way, it's ironic in a way, but good

If only the military would get behind BEV's... The human instinct to kill something has lead to some incredible innovation!

[izzy]

If only the military would get behind BEV's... The human instinct to kill something has lead to some incredible innovation!

Lol, too true isn't it, but with Elon around they're in danger of getting left behind. Now his Semi is set to be the next Thing, in trains with Convoy Mode: https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/16/te ... eight/amp/

[AJI]

If only the military would get behind BEV's... The human instinct to kill something has lead to some incredible innovation!

Lol, too true isn't it, but with Elon around they're in danger of getting left behind...

I was being a bit cheeky, but reading it back.., it does raise a serious question...
If the military aren't interested, is it actually viable? I mean, we wouldn't even be communicating via this medium without the military...

[izzy]

I was being a bit cheeky, but reading it back.., it does raise a serious question...
If the military aren't interested, is it actually viable? I mean, we wouldn't even be communicating via this medium without the military...

aren't the military doing lots with drones? And unmanned vehicles generally. Electric is so much easier to control, i bet they're well into EV's. But anyway the revolution is here with or without them. Obviously as the genius who invented Windows has realised, range and recharging are a bit of a work in progress, but already an EV car is great for an awful lot of people

[Just_a_fan]

Military drones are unlikely to go EV as batteries take up too much payload capacity. As with all aircraft, energy density is crucial and batteries are just too heavy for any meaningful endurance. The current long range stuff can stay in the air for dozens of hours and fly tens of thousands of km. Putting in enough batteries to do that would make them too heavy.

Yet again, the energy density of oil-based fuels is too high for batteries to ever compete with in aircraft.

[Andres125sx]

True, but we can't evaluate militar viability using common tech, they're always two or three steps ahead.

I wonder what are they testing/developing. Aluminium batteries, those wich can't be recharged but provide 4x the energy density of current Lithium batteries, could make viable some interesting flying machines, drones, etc

[izzy]

Military drones are unlikely to go EV as batteries take up too much payload capacity. As with all aircraft, energy density is crucial and batteries are just too heavy for any meaningful endurance. The current long range stuff can stay in the air for dozens of hours and fly tens of thousands of km. Putting in enough batteries to do that would make them too heavy.

Yet again, the energy density of oil-based fuels is too high for batteries to ever compete with in aircraft.

well yes of course batteries can't do long range, but the military are keen on it. There are ground vehicles, which are inherently sneakier on electric as well as more controllable, and not all drones are for long range missions are they:

One intriguing potential customer base for UAV energy storage technology is the U.S. military, said Christopher Claxton, who oversees commercialization management of Argonne’s battery intellectual property portfolio. According to Claxton, the unique needs of the military are pushing researchers to look at materials in new ways for different applications.

Offering a full range of solutions to meet Department of Defense mission requirements is key, according to Claxton. Argonne must also leverage its demonstrated ability to collaborate and successfully engage across what Claxton called the ​“value chain” of government agencies and manufacturing partners.

“When you work with end users like the military on advanced battery systems they want solutions,” he said. ​“We have a demonstrated ability to work directly with people who have highly specific needs to create specialized materials that are matched to their exact mission requirements.”

https://www.anl.gov/article/battery-tec ... kes-flight

[Just_a_fan]

True, but we can't evaluate militar viability using common tech, they're always two or three steps ahead.

I wonder what are they testing/developing. Aluminium batteries, those wich can't be recharged but provide 4x the energy density of current Lithium batteries, could make viable some interesting flying machines, drones, etc

Yes, aluminium is looking interesting. But it's still at least an order of magnitude lower energy density than oil-derived fuels.

Hydrogen fuel cells probably make more sense for this type of use. Indeed, they probably will be the answer for road vehicles that require range of greater than a couple of hundred miles. The issue then is making hydrogen in a sustainable and clean way.

[Just_a_fan]

well yes of course batteries can't do long range, but the military are keen on it. There are ground vehicles, which are inherently sneakier on electric as well as more controllable, and not all drones are for long range missions are they:
[...]
https://www.anl.gov/article/battery-tec ... kes-flight

For military vehicles that need a bit of "sneaky" action, a hybrid makes more sense. Use oil-derived to do the long range bit, then switch to EV mode for the last mile in close to the enemy. Building a fighting vehicle than can do 100 miles on batteries alone is probably pointless. Bear in mind also that many fighting vehicles are very heavy. Adding sufficient batteries to power one for more than a few miles would make them hugely heavy. Think APC that weighs as much as a MBT.

The link is a fluff piece to attract investment/keep sponsors (US Govt in this case) happy.

[izzy]

For military vehicles that need a bit of "sneaky" action, a hybrid makes more sense. Use oil-derived to do the long range bit, then switch to EV mode for the last mile in close to the enemy. Building a fighting vehicle than can do 100 miles on batteries alone is probably pointless. Bear in mind also that many fighting vehicles are very heavy. Adding sufficient batteries to power one for more than a few miles would make them hugely heavy. Think APC that weighs as much as a MBT.

The link is a fluff piece to attract investment/keep sponsors (US Govt in this case) happy.

yes hybrid would be best for 100 mile missions, but they'd still like a good battery for them, and there are shorter range missions. And yes that article had an agenda, but the agenda was selling batteries to the military So they're probably not really making a difference as demand is huge anyway, but they quite likely are spending some of their trillion dollar budget on battery technology, i bet