Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[Andres125sx]

Did you expect first AVs on open roads moving at faster speeds?

It's common sense, first check how do they work on real scenarios with objects and people moving around at unexpected directions and speeds, then when those AVs prove they're safe speed will increase. At some point they will be able to move much faster than current cars, as computers don't get distracted, have constant 360 monitoring, and reaction times are milliseconds instead of tenths or even seconds like humans

yes i do agree, i wasn't totally serious, i think convoys is going to be the way. It did just look a bit silly in that example, with students queueing to get where they were going more slowly, and the boffins talking earnestly about how difficult it was to achieve

That was my guess, but with internet you never know what´s going on other´s minds

Here in Madrid there´s other project about AVs. Curisouly for students, to move around the university campus of UAM

https://easymile.com/uam-comunidad-de-m ... in-spain/

[izzy]

That was my guess, but with internet you never know what´s going on other´s minds

Here in Madrid there´s other project about AVs. Curisouly for students, to move around the university campus of UAM

https://easymile.com/uam-comunidad-de-m ... in-spain/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo

on the internet you never can tell!

very similar system isn't it, and just using students again as we're the quickest at getting out of the way if it goes wrong, or if not at least we're reasonably expendable

[Big Tea]

That was my guess, but with internet you never know what´s going on other´s minds

Here in Madrid there´s other project about AVs. Curisouly for students, to move around the university campus of UAM

https://easymile.com/uam-comunidad-de-m ... in-spain/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... e=emb_logo

on the internet you never can tell!

very similar system isn't it, and just using students again as we're the quickest at getting out of the way if it goes wrong, or if not at least we're reasonably expendable

It probably helps that a campus is a set route with little other traffic, so there are no parked delivery vans to negotiate, and few if any will have a flock of kids or wrinklies in tow, so should be sensible (students? have they changed since my day )

[izzy]

It probably helps that a campus is a set route with little other traffic, so there are no parked delivery vans to negotiate, and few if any will have a flock of kids or wrinklies in tow, so should be sensible (students? have they changed since my day )

according to my sources they couldn't have done it in the 1970's as students were generally too out of their minds on something, peace, man

[Big Tea]

It probably helps that a campus is a set route with little other traffic, so there are no parked delivery vans to negotiate, and few if any will have a flock of kids or wrinklies in tow, so should be sensible (students? have they changed since my day )

according to my sources they couldn't have done it in the 1970's as students were generally too out of their minds on something, peace, man

Only those who were not working as well

[AJI]

This AV/EV shuttle was trialled for the last year very close to where I live, on public roads. It was quite odd to see, but a reasonable success in the context of what you guys are talking about.

https://images.app.goo.gl/vAmTC69bhfSEgabL8

https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-a ... o-armidale

[AJI]

The coronavirus has now spread to EV sales.

https://insideevs.com/news/400215/janua ... car-sales/

I'll dare to say the end of EVs subsidizing is much more relevant than coronavirus on EVs sales drop

I think you're underestimating the damage to China's economy, at least in the short term.

[izzy]

This AV/EV shuttle was trialled for the last year very close to where I live, on public roads. It was quite odd to see, but a reasonable success in the context of what you guys are talking about.

https://images.app.goo.gl/vAmTC69bhfSEgabL8

https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-a ... o-armidale

oh cool, it sounds like it was a success? It is the same thing isn't it, but actually in the real world too

[Big Tea]

This AV/EV shuttle was trialled for the last year very close to where I live, on public roads. It was quite odd to see, but a reasonable success in the context of what you guys are talking about.

https://images.app.goo.gl/vAmTC69bhfSEgabL8

https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-a ... o-armidale

Cool, what did 'the guy in the street' think of them? were they well used or just novelty?
They will not be a real success until people actually give up a car to use them, which will never happen with a trial.

The text mentions use at night, which would be very useful for some routes as busses do not run late as drivers do not like to do it.

[AJI]

This AV/EV shuttle was trialled for the last year very close to where I live, on public roads. It was quite odd to see, but a reasonable success in the context of what you guys are talking about.

https://images.app.goo.gl/vAmTC69bhfSEgabL8

https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-a ... o-armidale

Cool, what did 'the guy in the street' think of them? were they well used or just novelty?
They will not be a real success until people actually give up a car to use them, which will never happen with a trial.

The text mentions use at night, which would be very useful for some routes as busses do not run late as drivers do not like to do it.

It was seen as a bit of a novely to be honest. It mostly just drove around passengerless, but I did see the odd commuter in it. The vehicle was in and out of commission frequently due to tech issues, but it's obviously still very early stages.
Interesting none the less.

[Andres125sx]

This AV/EV shuttle was trialled for the last year very close to where I live, on public roads. It was quite odd to see, but a reasonable success in the context of what you guys are talking about.

https://images.app.goo.gl/vAmTC69bhfSEgabL8

https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/news-a ... o-armidale

Looks like same pods that will start here in Madrid too

[henry]

U.K. February sales of BEVs at 3.2% of market according to SMMT. over 3 times higher sales than last year.

[Airshifter]

U.K. February sales of BEVs at 3.2% of market according to SMMT. over 3 times higher sales than last year.

Have their been any major changes in incentives in the UK? I know here in the US the high trends were essentially the result of larger tax credits in certain years.

Overall, the EV market is still very small though. I think the transition is going to take much longer than some predict. Other than a few countries, they just aren't selling many of them.

[henry]

U.K. February sales of BEVs at 3.2% of market according to SMMT. over 3 times higher sales than last year.

Have their been any major changes in incentives in the UK? I know here in the US the high trends were essentially the result of larger tax credits in certain years.

Overall, the EV market is still very small though. I think the transition is going to take much longer than some predict. Other than a few countries, they just aren't selling many of them.

The major change is that from April the tax that is normally assessed to account for the income benefit that someone gets from personal use of a company car will be zero for BEVs. The tax will will rise annually but will still be low compared with Fossil fuel cars.

Edit: the tax change is retrospective so cars purchased before April qualify.

I did a simple calculation of the rate of uptake required to get BEVs to 100% market share by 2032 (the U.K. government has announced that the sale of fossil field vehicles will end in that year) The compound growth rate is 40%

This would imply total car sales of 35k this year (2020). Based on the first 2 months we might see 42k which is not a dramatic difference.

At the 40% rate by 2025 we would get to 200k which is around 10% market share.

If I project forward to 2032 even at this growth rate the overall effect on CO2 emissions is low. This is because the whole fleet of around 32m vehicles only turns over every 14 to 16 years so the fleet itself would still be predominantly fossil fuelled and will continue to be so up to 2040 and beyond.

Of course things won’t pan out like this but it shows what a difficult task reducing CO2 emissions is going to be and how difficult it will be for everyone to plan for it.

Final point. At the 40% growth rate the total fleet of BEVs will be using around 5% of current UK generation rates.

[izzy]

A couple of snippets:

All the £2m-each Lotus Evija BEV hypercars are sold out for 2020, and the car Lewis drove ex-Prince Harry to open the SIlverstone museum in was... a BEV Mercedes