COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[Just_a_fan]

What happens to the finances of the smaller teams - could any go under ? Do they get part payments race by race or is it all at the end of the season

And the same for the race tracks and promotors, are they insured aginst this type of thing

The teams might have to talk nicely to sponsors but, on the plus side, they don't have the expense of going to the race every other weekend so it's probably not an issue in that regard. The payments to the teams are based on the season's results so this year should be ok. Next? Good question. The teams also pay an annual entry fee which is based on the previous year's points so all will benefit from a lower total tally this year.

The teams still have to pay their staff and that would be the biggest overall expense.

But they'd be doing that anyway. Their income is from sponsors and at the end of the year from the FIA based on their results from the previous season. The teams won't be hit by not racing this year. They might be next year if results-based income is affected.

[izzy]

We'll never know the real mortality rate because we will never know how many cases there actually are. All we will know is how many deaths there will be in the end compared to a normal flu wave - but that's only after the epidemic. And then we can estimate a mortality rate, but it will be a coarse estimation - if it's based on registered cases, it will certainly over-estimate mortality. But by how much, will be very challenging to figure out.

yes in the UK we're being told not even to report it, just stay at home, so as you say there will never be the full numbers. And a lot of victims have underlying conditions and there's a normal mortality rate going on at the same time. so really afaics we just have the elementary theory that the virus will spread while there are available hosts, and then gradually the exponent will reduce, it'll plateau like they're claiming in China, and then subside to an ongoing thing with a vaccine for the most vulnerable like the flu

i'm a bit doubtful whether F1 have had time to think about it properly, i think they need a much more creative plan than waiting and seeing, but hopefully when they're all back home and rested they'll take a fresh look at the whole thing, about what kind of racing they can realistically offer this year. I mean with a crowd? And if not, then other options open up

[Phil]

Switzerland just reacted; Border now to Italy officially closed, except for people who live or work here. All schools officially closed. People advised to avoid public transport, especially during rush hour and/or if you are in the severe risk group (65+, diabetes, cancer, high blood pressure, respiratory illnesses etc). Everyone advised to keep distance and adhere to hygiene recommendations. Events with over 100 people prohibited. Restaurants can remain open for up to max 50 guests.

We've had another 30+% increase. Now up to 1125 positive cases (from 858 yesterday).

[Just_a_fan]

You are a bit early with using German numbers. People don't get infected and then die. Some die after two weeks, some less, some more. Given the outbreak has only just started to really increase, the death rate is expected to grow substantially, as it did in Italy when it reached critical stages.

Also, most countries are no longer counting everyone with "flu like symptoms". They are only testing people with serious symptoms. Therefore, the confirmed cases are starting to reflect people who have severe symptoms.

Many of the deaths are people who have existing underlying health problems and/or are old. For the majority of the population, it's 'flu and they'll feel rubbish for a few days before making a full recovery.

The issue for the various Govts around the world is controlling numbers so that those at risk can be handled by the health services. If half of a country's population gets COVID-19 next week, the health services will collapse and those that won't naturally survive anyway will be lost in the crush at hospital doors. That's why people are being advised to self-isolate rather than go to their doctor/local hospital.

Seasonal 'flu kills about 0.5million people a year worldwide, mostly old people and mostly in poor/undeveloped areas/countries. About 5000 people worldwide are known to have died from COVID-19 so far.

To put it in context, about 1.3million people a year die in road traffic accidents worldwide.

[bauc]

Macedonia is up to 13 positive cases as of today.
Schools & faculties are closed for 14 days. Parents that have child's up to 10 years old are not going to work in the next 14 days as well. Many of the people who can work from home are doing so. All pubic events are canceled. Cinemas, Gym's ect are closed in the next 14 days....restaurants and cafe's are working only up to 18h and with 50% of capacity... public transport privileges for old people and students have been canceled in order for them to limit their traveling and exposure.

P.S.

Toilet paper is running thin

[DChemTech]

We'll never know the real mortality rate because we will never know how many cases there actually are. All we will know is how many deaths there will be in the end compared to a normal flu wave - but that's only after the epidemic. And then we can estimate a mortality rate, but it will be a coarse estimation - if it's based on registered cases, it will certainly over-estimate mortality. But by how much, will be very challenging to figure out.

yes in the UK we're being told not even to report it, just stay at home, so as you say there will never be the full numbers. And a lot of victims have underlying conditions and there's a normal mortality rate going on at the same time. so really afaics we just have the elementary theory that the virus will spread while there are available hosts, and then gradually the exponent will reduce, it'll plateau like they're claiming in China, and then subside to an ongoing thing with a vaccine for the most vulnerable like the flu

i'm a bit doubtful whether F1 have had time to think about it properly, i think they need a much more creative plan than waiting and seeing, but hopefully when they're all back home and rested they'll take a fresh look at the whole thing, about what kind of racing they can realistically offer this year. I mean with a crowd? And if not, then other options open up

Yeah. An additional difficulty there is that a lot of flu mortalities also have underlying conditions, and it's not uncommon that the cause of death will be registered as whatever that underlying condition is (rather than the flu), whilst currently COVID is listed as the cause of death (rather than the underlying issue). So they typically report 'excess deaths' compared to the background death rate during a flu wave and use that to estimate mortality. Then again, for flu, also the actual number of cases is not accurately registered. So all these numbers are just horribly inaccurate...

[Capharol]

[Capharol]

As a result, Formula 1 and the FIA expect to begin the Championship in Europe at the end of May but given the sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in Europe in recent days, this will be regularly reviewed.

bolded text assuming no Zandvoort aswell

https://www.fia.com/news/fia-formula-1- ... -postponed

[marmer]

Be interesting to see who this favours in the end. If the whole season is cancelled it we might have seen the last of Kimi

[Phil]

Many of the deaths are people who have existing underlying health problems and/or are old. For the majority of the population, it's 'flu and they'll feel rubbish for a few days before making a full recovery.

The issue for the various Govts around the world is controlling numbers so that those at risk can be handled by the health services. If half of a country's population gets COVID-19 next week, the health services will collapse and those that won't naturally survive anyway will be lost in the crush at hospital doors. That's why people are being advised to self-isolate rather than go to their doctor/local hospital.

I know, you're repeating what I've been saying since over a week.

Seasonal 'flu kills about 0.5million people a year worldwide, mostly old people and mostly in poor/undeveloped areas/countries. About 5000 people worldwide are known to have died from COVID-19 so far.

To put it in context, about 1.3million people a year die in road traffic accidents worldwide.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. Is it that the flu is worse? That COVID-19 isn't? I also fail to understand what you're attempting to say with the 1.3 million people a year through road traffic accidents. Guess what - ~6250 people die per hour around the world for all kinds of reasons. What has this to do with COVID-19?

[Just_a_fan]

To put it in context, about 1.3million people a year die in road traffic accidents worldwide.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. Is it that the flu is worse? That COVID-19 isn't? I also fail to understand what you're attempting to say with the 1.3 million people a year through road traffic accidents. Guess what - ~6250 people die per hour around the world for all kinds of reasons. What has this to do with COVID-19?

As I said, it was context. Yes, lots of people die from normal 'flu every year and it's likely that many will die from COVID-19 this year (although I'm going to stick my neck out and say it won't be as many as seasonal 'flu because it's being dealt with), but the reality is that many more will die in road accidents. There are people panicking about COVID-19 but they aren't panicking about getting in their cars to go and buy 48 toilet rolls and a big vat of hand sanitiser "just in case".

People are rubbish at understanding risk and likelihoods etc. They face bigger risks every day than they do from COVID-19. That's the reality of it.

[Ringleheim]

To put it in context, about 1.3million people a year die in road traffic accidents worldwide.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. Is it that the flu is worse? That COVID-19 isn't? I also fail to understand what you're attempting to say with the 1.3 million people a year through road traffic accidents. Guess what - ~6250 people die per hour around the world for all kinds of reasons. What has this to do with COVID-19?

As I said, it was context. Yes, lots of people die from normal 'flu every year and it's likely that many will die from COVID-19 this year (although I'm going to stick my neck out and say it won't be as many as seasonal 'flu because it's being dealt with), but the reality is that many more will die in road accidents. There are people panicking about COVID-19 but they aren't panicking about getting in their cars to go and buy 48 toilet rolls and a big vat of hand sanitiser "just in case".

People are rubbish at understanding risk and likelihoods etc. They face bigger risks every day than they do from COVID-19. That's the reality of it.

People are just straight up dumb. The more you catch on to that, the more a lot of things make sense.

[Phil]

Yeah. An additional difficulty there is that a lot of flu mortalities also have underlying conditions, and it's not uncommon that the cause of death will be registered as whatever that underlying condition is (rather than the flu), whilst currently COVID is listed as the cause of death (rather than the underlying issue). So they typically report 'excess deaths' compared to the background death rate during a flu wave and use that to estimate mortality. Then again, for flu, also the actual number of cases is not accurately registered. So all these numbers are just horribly inaccurate...

This happens in regards to flu/Influenza A too that many deaths are attributed to it, but might have other underlying causes. Lots of people have the flu, survive it and never get registered too. If anything it makes the COVID-19 numbers more accurate than the flu ones for now.

Also; the problem that at the moment, every death are attributed to COVID-19 (rather than perhaps other underlying issues) would be equal for flu cases any other time of the year as well.

[Phil]

People are rubbish at understanding risk and likelihoods etc. They face bigger risks every day than they do from COVID-19. That's the reality of it.

Alright; Can you make a risk assessment for me? I'm 36, in a good health, sporty, but have asthma. I drive every day to work and do about 40'000km per year and have been doing so, for the last 17 years. What are my risks and survival odds, considering "only 1.3million" die a year?

Given you are talking about "bigger risks" and seem to be good at numbers, I look forward to your assessment.

While you're at it, make sure to consider how many kms are driven every year by how many people to put that 1.3 million figure into the proper context. And don't forget to exclude the numbers from certain countries that have a multitude more fatal accidents due to higher density, less road and safety regulations, older and less safe vehicles. Then compare it to the large spike of corona cases, the very real possibility that health systems are/will be overloaded (yes, in the country where I am) and therefore will influence (increase) the death rate. For the fun of it, assume I live in Italy, where the CFR is 6.7% (measured against positive confirmed cases).

[Just_a_fan]

People are rubbish at understanding risk and likelihoods etc. They face bigger risks every day than they do from COVID-19. That's the reality of it.

Alright; Can you make a risk assessment for me? I'm 36, in a good health, sporty, but have asthma. I drive every day to work and do about 40'000km per year and have been doing so, for the last 17 years. What are my risks and survival odds, considering "only 1.3million" die a year?

Your risk from COVID-19 will be higher than otherwise similar groups in your area who don't have asthma because you have a relevant underlying health issue. Your risk from driving will be greater than the majority in your area because you do more driving than the majority.

My risk from COVID-19 is higher than some because I have hypertension and this is a risk factor in severity. My risk from driving is higher than the majority because, like you, I do a higher than usual annual mileage. Do I consider COVID-19 to be a greater risk to me than being hit by a truck driven by a tired, likely-foreign, driver who is lost and using his phone to get directions whilst driving? No, I don't think it is.

Your risk from worrying yourself to death? It's higher than it was a month ago I'd suggest.