COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[PlatinumZealot]

FWIW my understanding of the U.K. approach is restrict social contact based on vulnerability and level of infection. If you’re old or unwell the advice is total isolation. If you have symptoms the advice is to isolate, with housemates, for 14 days. The first measure reduces the potential infectees by about 15%, and the potential hospital cases by considerably more. Elderly infirm people are 10 times more likely to be hospitalised or die. The second measure reduces infecters and after their isolation reduces potential infectees.

I don’t know how effective it will be or whether total lockdown would be better. I do know it’s incumbent on me to follow the advice.

That's exactly what most countries are doing though... Are you sure that's the herd immunity approach they have been touting... haha

[Just_a_fan]

This is the Imperial college COVID-19 model:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

Looking forward to seeing other countries' modelling and assumptions behind their responses.

The UK may be wrong but at least they are basing the response on something published.

[mmred]

This is the Imperial college COVID-19 model:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

Looking forward to seeing other countries' modelling and assumptions behind their responses.

The UK may be wrong but at least they are basing the response on something published.

The document Is what made il change approach from doing nothing to lockdown...

[Just_a_fan]

This is the Imperial college COVID-19 model:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

Looking forward to seeing other countries' modelling and assumptions behind their responses.

The UK may be wrong but at least they are basing the response on something published.

The document Is what made il change approach from doing nothing to lockdown...

The UK isn't in lock down. We're asked to limit certain activity but nothing is forbidden, we're not restricted to our homes.

[izzy]

This is the Imperial college COVID-19 model:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

It is a MODEL. There are other models which will differ.
Personally I think it is a worst case scenario model. If I understand it correctly, it assumes a constant capacity of the health system. But capacity will grow, considerably, over the next weeks/months. It also assumes a constant capacity of infection an the absence of human measures, but the ambient heat should reduce it. Not below 1.0, likely, but it should reduce it from the Ro=2.2 assumed constant in that model.

But it still makes a very compelling worst case scenario.

And it says that this F1 season is over. The graphs suggest that whenever one relaxes measures, the situation starts to get out of control after a month, and thus measures have to be reinstated. For a global sport like this one, peaks happening at different times in different countries and intermittent travel restrictions make any sort of sensible season impossible.

For everything else that is not F1, it is very scary model.

Yes i mean no vaccine means no F1 basically, as it's so contagious it can only slow down with most people developing immunity by catching it

They should've gone to Bahrain, all caught it then raced 20 times just there but swapping cars, like WSeries

[aral]

"People want the UK to "lock down" but no other country has done this yet. No one"

so spains lock down is not a lockdown? and italy's lockdown is not a lockdown? and ireland is in a lockdown at present apart from northern ireland which is part of the uk.
and the wuhan district of china is larger and more populated than either spain or italy, and is in lockdown

i suppose that a lot depends on what you are considering as a lockdown. we can be in lockdown but that does not stop us going out for walks etc, and supermarkets are kept open but with very strict controls. i was in a shopping mall today with over 100 shops and the only ONE that was open, was a supermarket

[Big Tea]

"People want the UK to "lock down" but no other country has done this yet. No one"

so spains lock down is not a lockdown? and italy's lockdown is not a lockdown? and ireland is in a lockdown at present apart from northern ireland which is part of the uk.
and the wuhan district of china is larger and more populated than either spain or italy, and is in lockdown

i suppose that a lot depends on what you are considering as a lockdown. we can be in lockdown but that does not stop us going out for walks etc, and supermarkets are kept open but with very strict controls. i was in a shopping mall today with over 100 shops and the only ONE that was open, was a supermarket

Did you sanitise the handle of the trolly before you used it? Some seem to be forgetting this. and do not touch the keypad on the card reader without a glove

[Brake Horse Power]

What is also interesting is the different approach between countries. This is something which should be UN / Who organized. If we do a Hurd immunity, and Italy tries to eliminate it with a lock down it simply won't work will it? Or is also their reasoning behind a lock down a controlled spread?

[3jawchuck]

"People want the UK to "lock down" but no other country has done this yet. No one"
so spains lock down is not a lockdown? and italy's lockdown is not a lockdown? and ireland is in a lockdown at present apart from northern ireland which is part of the uk.
and the wuhan district of china is larger and more populated than either spain or italy, and is in lockdown
i suppose that a lot depends on what you are considering as a lockdown. we can be in lockdown but that does not stop us going out for walks etc, and supermarkets are kept open but with very strict controls. i was in a shopping mall today with over 100 shops and the only ONE that was open, was a supermarket

Did you sanitise the handle of the trolly before you used it? Some seem to be forgetting this. and do not touch the keypad on the card reader without a glove

Don't forget to wash everything you bring back with you, especially plastic bagged items. I admit though, putting the chocolate and toilet paper in the dishwasher was a mistake.

[Just_a_fan]

"People want the UK to "lock down" but no other country has done this yet. No one"

so spains lock down is not a lockdown? and italy's lockdown is not a lockdown? and ireland is in a lockdown at present apart from northern ireland which is part of the uk.
and the wuhan district of china is larger and more populated than either spain or italy, and is in lockdown

i suppose that a lot depends on what you are considering as a lockdown. we can be in lockdown but that does not stop us going out for walks etc, and supermarkets are kept open but with very strict controls. i was in a shopping mall today with over 100 shops and the only ONE that was open, was a supermarket

Italy's"lockdown" covers the whole country? Stops everyone from leaving their homes? And that means everyone, for two/three weeks. No one going out, at all, for any reason. Likewise, Spain.

Wuhan is a part of China. The rest of China isn't locked down. It's able to function and support Wuhan.

Lockdown any country for three weeks and that country will cease to exist, economically. That's the reality and why no one has done it. No one. If a shop is open and people are allowed to go to it then you're not in lock down. Lock down is the same as house arrest. No one in or out. Doors locked. No movement. Nothing.

So, remind which country has implemented a lock down? I'll wait.

[Big Tea]

"People want the UK to "lock down" but no other country has done this yet. No one"
so spains lock down is not a lockdown? and italy's lockdown is not a lockdown? and ireland is in a lockdown at present apart from northern ireland which is part of the uk.
and the wuhan district of china is larger and more populated than either spain or italy, and is in lockdown
i suppose that a lot depends on what you are considering as a lockdown. we can be in lockdown but that does not stop us going out for walks etc, and supermarkets are kept open but with very strict controls. i was in a shopping mall today with over 100 shops and the only ONE that was open, was a supermarket

Did you sanitise the handle of the trolly before you used it? Some seem to be forgetting this. and do not touch the keypad on the card reader without a glove

Don't forget to wash everything you bring back with you, especially plastic bagged items. I admit though, putting the chocolate and toilet paper in the dishwasher was a mistake.

Lol. Seriously though, I did a 'click and collect' shop yesterday, which for those not familiar with it, you order on line and pick up at a booth. No person to person. I say in the car watching people park, walk up to the trolly park, wheel the trolly to the door and put gloves on the hands they just had all over the handle.

Self service fuel pump, same. stay 3 mtr away from each other but use the same number pad as everyone else before them, no gloves.

[Just_a_fan]

You don't catch it through the skin. Touching stuff isn't a problem so long as you don't touch your nose or mouth and so give access to your respiratory tract. So touching the shopping trolley or fuel pump is ok. Just wash your hands before touching your face.

[Just_a_fan]

No person to person.

If the person in the shop coughed on their hand and then handled your goods or pick up box, you're in the same position as someone who walked around the shop. Unless you washed your hands immediately after touching your goods or the pick up box.

Wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands. That's the single best thing you can do to protect yourself.

[Rodak]

Actually the Imperial College study models many different approaches, including doing nothing, voluntary isolation, etc., with different assumptions about how well the methods are followed and different infection rates. The paper is really worth a read and is quite sobering. The do nothing strategy suggests more that 500,000 deaths in the UK and some of the other strategies cut that in half. For the U.S. the head in the sand approach suggests 2.2 million deaths.

[kimetic]

The best advice I've seen is to plan for getting it, by maximising our health, with diet and exercise. Get the chest as fit as possible for when our lungs start to fill up, optimise the state of our gut and immune system with fruit and veg, and lose weight. Because, as has been said, it's probably a question of when we get it, rather than if, and it's clear that the consequences depend heavily on the state of each body and its fitness - its effective age.