COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[mmred]

It is just math. A large retired population and less invested capital in pension funds. Their pensions and healthcare needs draw of money from government funds and now they are hit hard by COVID-19.

It is family traditions and gatherings like carnaval that accelerated the spread.

It Is probably Just a stronger strain of the virus affecting Italy and spain

Said it before and will say it again: Germany tests much, much more.
That, and plus demographic differences and a currently non-overloaded healthcare system, is probably all there is to it.

Vastly different strains would be alarming and such a conclusion should not be made lightly. Speculation thereof requires more than just a different -case- fatality rate.

The idea wasnt proposed lightly but by the doctor Who sequenced It in Italy making the tampoon test possible

All the other culturale and economical factors seems mostly racistic nonsense imho

[DChemTech]

It Is probably Just a stronger strain of the virus affecting Italy and spain

Said it before and will say it again: Germany tests much, much more.
That, and plus demographic differences and a currently non-overloaded healthcare system, is probably all there is to it.

Vastly different strains would be alarming and such a conclusion should not be made lightly. Speculation thereof requires more than just a different -case- fatality rate.

The idea wasnt proposed lightly but by the doctor Who sequenced It in Italy making the tampoon test possible

All the other culturale and economical factors seems mostly racistic nonsense imho

Are you calling the facts that Germany tests more, northern Italy has a relatively old population, and Italy currently has a shortage of ICU beds and medial equipment racist? Because those are the only differences I alluded to.

And ok, I can't find that particular doctors statement, but there is a difference between -possibly- a more lethal strain and -probably- a more lethal strain. Probably implies it's the most likely explanation. And in light of all above-mentioned differences, solely a higher CFR is not sufficient to support that.

[RZS10]

"Factual observations are racist" ... wasn't trying to not be 'racist' a major contributing factor for the spread of Covid?

What is racist about stating the fact that southern europeans have a more 'heartily' approach to their social interactions? In Germany you get a firm handshake from men and a fake side kiss from women ... and then you watch Seria A and they all kiss each other after every successful clearance or goal ... lol - No one is saying that any of that is bad ... it just might be a contributing factor to faster spread.

[Just_a_fan]

Isn't that strange that, the most affected countries are those with the weakest economy in eurozone. Italy and Spain, both countries were more or less insolvent. I believe there is more behind than just a virus.

It is just math. A large retired population and less invested capital in pension funds. Their pensions and healthcare needs draw of money from government funds and now they are hit hard by COVID-19.

It is family traditions and gatherings like carnaval that accelerated the spread.

It Is probably Just a stronger strain of the virus affecting Italy and spain

Highly unlikely.

[mmred]

Said it before and will say it again: Germany tests much, much more.
That, and plus demographic differences and a currently non-overloaded healthcare system, is probably all there is to it.

Vastly different strains would be alarming and such a conclusion should not be made lightly. Speculation thereof requires more than just a different -case- fatality rate.

The idea wasnt proposed lightly but by the doctor Who sequenced It in Italy making the tampoon test possible

All the other culturale and economical factors seems mostly racistic nonsense imho

Are you calling the facts that Germany tests more, northern Italy has a relatively old population, and Italy currently has a shortage of ICU beds and medial equipment racist? Because those are the only differences I alluded to.

And ok, I can't find that particular doctors statement, but there is a difference between -possibly- a more lethal strain and -probably- a more lethal strain. Probably implies it's the most likely explanation. And in light of all above-mentioned differences, solely a higher CFR is not sufficient to support that.

The Better german healthcare Is a fact, they basically imposed to cut healthcare all these Years to all the other eu countries that were in debt, but look that the virus Is spreading in the richest part of Italy, a group of regions that Is as Rich as Germany and has consequentially the Better healthcare in Italy and not in the south

So as you see the habit and the healthcare are not yet the reason, they Will be when beds are full wich is basically from now on

[mmred]

It is just math. A large retired population and less invested capital in pension funds. Their pensions and healthcare needs draw of money from government funds and now they are hit hard by COVID-19.

It is family traditions and gatherings like carnaval that accelerated the spread.

It Is probably Just a stronger strain of the virus affecting Italy and spain

Highly unlikely.

I bet my cents on experts

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.corrie ... 0_amp.html

[LM10]

Meanwhile Germany has such a good healthcare system that they take on patients from the border regions of France because they don't have enough ICU beds

Spain, France and Italy have like 4000-5000 ICU beds each - Germany has 28000 ... which can easily be doubled by delaying non-essential surgeries.

Some of those beds are occupied by normal flu patients already but there's still more than enough as of now...

28000 is the maximum capacity, that’s including non-essential surgeries, flu, traumas or whatever. And usually 80-85% of the ICU beds are occupied throughout the year. By delaying non-essential surgeries you’ll not increase the capacity, but you’ll have less occupied beds.
Of course, all countries are increasing their capacities now nevertheless.

[mmred]

"Factual observations are racist" ... wasn't trying to not be 'racist' a major contributing factor for the spread of Covid?

What is racist about stating the fact that southern europeans have a more 'heartily' approach to their social interactions? In Germany you get a firm handshake from men and a fake side kiss from women ... and then you watch Seria A and they all kiss each other after every successful clearance or goal ... lol - No one is saying that any of that is bad ... it just might be a contributing factor to faster spread.

Well i acknowledge you had not bad intention. But the difference between superstitious thinking and racism Is Little and relies on the intention of the author so It s a frail condition.

We don't Kiss on cheeks in time of virus alarm fyi

[Phil]

The Better german healthcare Is a fact,

What exactly does better “healthcare” get you in regards to Covid-19? From what i understand, prolonged life with hope that your body gets the infection under control before organ failure kills you.

In italy, not enough ICU beds is certainly a contributing factor to quicker deaths - one that has not set in, in Germany yet.

Just keep in mind, Germany is a very large country (large population too). Just because they have 28k ICU beds does not mean there are enough in all affected regions. Some regions are hit more than others, so one part could get overloaded while others will not, or later.

For sure Germany has a higher threshold before the health system is overloaded than Italy.

[mmred]

The Better german healthcare Is a fact,

What exactly does better “healthcare” get you in regards to Covid-19? From what i understand, prolonged life with hope that your body gets the infection under control before organ failure kills you.

In italy, not enough ICU beds is certainly a contributing factor to quicker deaths - one that has not set in, in Germany yet.

Just keep in mind, Germany is a very large country (large population too). Just because they have 28k ICU beds does not mean there are enough in all affected regions. Some regions are hit more than others, so one part could get overloaded while others will not, or later.

For sure Germany has a higher threshold before the health system is overloaded than Italy.

And still the death rate was 10x times the china's one very well before the thresold was reached... We re dealing with a mutation, the most famous italian virologists say

[Phil]

In my opinion, the math should be done differently.

The difference between an overloaded and a non-overloaded healthcare system is how much time patients with severe symptoms have/get to fight the infection.

In an overloaded healthcare system, many of these people cant be helped, they are on their own and have very bad survivability odds. If the healthcare system is not overloaded, patients gain valuable time. With artificial ventilation, they get to live longer and with care get more time to fight the infection. This added time can be anywhere from a week to 3 weeks until they either succumb to the illness or survive.

This has a profound effect on the fatality rate and the respective timeline.

For the German numbers, i wouldnt be comparing the most recent positive cases with the recent fatality total. I’d be comparing the fatality total with what the number of active cases was 14 days earlier, given it takes around this much time to reach a conclusion over the outcome of the illness.

In italy, or any country with an overloaded healthcare system, i’d take the fatality rate with a more recent number of cases, because the conclusion and outcome of many new confirmed cases is reached quicker as a direct result of healthcare not being provided and active cases dying quicker.

In other words, the fatality rate between the countries may be more alike than you think, the only discrepancy being that one country (italy) is way ahead in the spread (9-14 days) and has an overloaded healthcare system while the other is still operating within capacity and able to help its people.

However, given time until that threshold is reached, i fully expect the fatality rate to increase significantly.

[DChemTech]

The Better german healthcare Is a fact,

What exactly does better “healthcare” get you in regards to Covid-19? From what i understand, prolonged life with hope that your body gets the infection under control before organ failure kills you.

In italy, not enough ICU beds is certainly a contributing factor to quicker deaths - one that has not set in, in Germany yet.

Just keep in mind, Germany is a very large country (large population too). Just because they have 28k ICU beds does not mean there are enough in all affected regions. Some regions are hit more than others, so one part could get overloaded while others will not, or later.

For sure Germany has a higher threshold before the health system is overloaded than Italy.

And still the death rate was 10x times the china's one very well before the thresold was reached... We re dealing with a mutation, the most famous italian virologists say

And these other Italian and Spanish experts say that the (inevitable and continual) mutations are not leading to higher mortality, citing differences in testing coverage and age demographic as reasons for the high mortality in Italy.
And of course, both our sources are interview quotes, not journal papers.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... rope-wuhan

For China vs. Italy, there also seems to be decent ground to assume that testing coverage in Wuhan was better. So again, we cannot conclude on any of these numbers that there is a more lethal mutation going around. There -might- be, but there are more simple explanations for the difference in case mortality rate.

[NL_Fer]

I never meant to be racist, never didn’t even think about the kiss on the cheek. I just suspect, the here up north we don’t see our elderly as often as in the south. You could even call it cold or selfish even.

[nzjrs]

It Is probably Just a stronger strain of the virus affecting Italy and spain

Highly unlikely.

I bet my cents on experts

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.corrie ... 0_amp.html

Bollocks. They've been sequencing ncov19 continually since it's outbreak and this quote doesn't even deserve to be called a hypothesis. The data is already more or less there if he wanted to actually do some science.

His "hypothesis" is also challenged in the very same article you posted too.

Anyway, here is another theory I haven't seen posted yet, or at least a quantification of the "unhealthy / older" Italian demographics:

[Just_a_fan]

It Is probably Just a stronger strain of the virus affecting Italy and spain

Highly unlikely.

I bet my cents on experts

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.corrie ... 0_amp.html

He's saying it a possibility and is asking for others to help see if it's true. That's not "probably" at all.

And odd that Italy and Spain should get this stronger virus but France - directly between the two of them - hasn't. Hence why it's unlikely. If it was just Italy or Spain then it's more possible, but those two but not others between/around them? Unlikely.

Also, let's remember that it's one bit of Italy that's being hit hard. The rest is more like the global average so far as mortality is concerned. That suggests a local, possibly social, difference is responsible.