COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[strad]

That's going to be interesting if groups of idiots get together and then refuse to disperse. That's going need more than one or two police officers to sort out.

Our governor has issued a stay at home order but the millennials or what ever those 18 to 22 yr. olds are called, do whatever they want.
The local news here interviewed a young lady (17 or 19) gathered at the park with around 100 friends as part of a celebration. She told the reporter that A) "Can't catch the virus out in the open air, and B) They have a right to be there.

[Pyrone89]

Never mention the economy has crashed and we will be looking at a 1930’s style depression. Ofcourse health is nr. 1 right now, but on a lot of people it seemingly has not yet landed that a very large group will become unemployed for a long time, others will have to work at the whim of employers (and thus low wages, long hours, bad secondary benefits) and the homeless population will skyrocket even further. F1 is way way way down on our list of issues.

[e30ernest]

Well, the UK is now in a lock down although it's not a full one and there is some ambiguity about who can go to work etc. What is "essential" work? Not defined by the Govt so far.

Police to be allowed to break up groups. That's going to be interesting if groups of idiots get together and then refuse to disperse. That's going need more than one or two police officers to sort out.

god it's really severe isn't it:

all shops apart from food stores and chemists must close immediately, meeting friends will be banned - and just one form of exercise a day will be allowed.
Mr Johnson declared: "From this evening I must give the British people a very simple instruction - you must stay at home.

for at least 3 weeks

So UK is no longer going for the "herd immunity" strategy?

Singapore has re-opened its schools. I wonder how that will turn out. According to their government, there was no evidence the young was spreading the infections to the adults (it was mostly the adults infecting the young).

[JonoNic]

This idea that China enforced their lockdown with an fear and violence is not true. You need to know that all Chinese cities have sectors and areas can be blockaded within minutes. So if you need to cross a sector then you just have to show the necessary identification. I'm not sure Western countries can carry out a full lockdown without too much violence. I just took this photo of a permanent structure blockade from my apartment window . You simply can't go to that area if they don't want you to. Everyone including foreigners are used to this in China.

[JonoNic]

Apologies Tapatalk doesn't allow higher resolution photos without VIP.

[mmred]

Well, the UK is now in a lock down although it's not a full one and there is some ambiguity about who can go to work etc. What is "essential" work? Not defined by the Govt so far.

Police to be allowed to break up groups. That's going to be interesting if groups of idiots get together and then refuse to disperse. That's going need more than one or two police officers to sort out.

god it's really severe isn't it:

all shops apart from food stores and chemists must close immediately, meeting friends will be banned - and just one form of exercise a day will be allowed.
Mr Johnson declared: "From this evening I must give the British people a very simple instruction - you must stay at home.

for at least 3 weeks

So UK is no longer going for the "herd immunity" strategy?

Singapore has re-opened its schools. I wonder how that will turn out. According to their government, there was no evidence the young was spreading the infections to the adults (it was mostly the adults infecting the young).

The herd immunity thing was more a live and let die strategy.

There was a natural delay in some country, not a political one but merely a delay in assessing the disease was already there, that caused a disaster.

And then there was this political delay or even the herd immunity idea.


But let's hope the numbers will stay low.
As for the school reopening , nice dream, but who will teach them?

[e30ernest]

So back to the lockdowns, there are initial reports that HK may be starting to see a second wave now that they've relaxed their measures somewhat. It's not looking good for any strategy until a proper anti-viral that works is found.

[DChemTech]

Well, the UK is now in a lock down although it's not a full one and there is some ambiguity about who can go to work etc. What is "essential" work? Not defined by the Govt so far.

Police to be allowed to break up groups. That's going to be interesting if groups of idiots get together and then refuse to disperse. That's going need more than one or two police officers to sort out.

god it's really severe isn't it:

all shops apart from food stores and chemists must close immediately, meeting friends will be banned - and just one form of exercise a day will be allowed.
Mr Johnson declared: "From this evening I must give the British people a very simple instruction - you must stay at home.

for at least 3 weeks

So UK is no longer going for the "herd immunity" strategy?

Singapore has re-opened its schools. I wonder how that will turn out. According to their government, there was no evidence the young was spreading the infections to the adults (it was mostly the adults infecting the young).

I think the herd immunity strategy is a bit misunderstood.

Here in the Netherlands, it was also announced as such - but a 'flatten the curve' strategy would be a more appropriate explanation. The underlying idea is that a full lock-down would perhaps lead to a near-eradication of cases, but could never be maintained in the long run - leading to an oscillatory outburst/lockdown strategy for a long time. Hence, the [social distancing/partial lockdown] option was chosen, intended to get a steady stream of infections (as they are not completely unavoidable), but not one that exceeds intensive care capacity. In essence, hit the sweet spot between keeping a somewhat liveable live and not overloading the healthcare system. An added benefit is that slowly herd immunity will emerge, but that's not the main objective. It would also be quite time-taking. In NL, we have about 1100 IC beds regularly - let's call it 2000 in times of crisis. With a typical IC residence time of 2 weeks for corona patients, that's 1000 patients that can be admitted each week. If about 6% of total cases would hit the IC and 50% of the country needs to be infected for herd immunity, that means 500k people will hit the IC - 500 weeks or 10 years for herd immunity. Even if we manage to significantly boost IC capacity, fewer cases would be admitted, and the residence time would be shorter, we're easily looking at 1-3 years or so.

Anyway, the 'added benefit' of herd immunity was emphasized too much and hence picked up by quite some people as the main objective, leading to confusion (should we get ill, then?) and even some people being more relaxed about measures because "we're not at risk, so better get our immunity in". They should never have mentioned it in the first place and just clearly told what it was about: not overloading the IC.

[izzy]

So back to the lockdowns, there are initial reports that HK may be starting to see a second wave now that they've relaxed their measures somewhat. It's not looking good for any strategy until a proper anti-viral that works is found.

no it isn't looking good is it, it's just so contagious and long-lasting, it'd be a miracle if it died out with personal immunity. But we can't all stay at home forever, so perhaps we're stuck with that personal/herd immunity concept anyway
till there's a vaccine as you say

[basti313]

That's going to be interesting if groups of idiots get together and then refuse to disperse. That's going need more than one or two police officers to sort out.

Our governor has issued a stay at home order but the millennials or what ever those 18 to 22 yr. olds are called, do whatever they want.
The local news here interviewed a young lady (17 or 19) gathered at the park with around 100 friends as part of a celebration. She told the reporter that A) "Can't catch the virus out in the open air, and B) They have a right to be there. http://www.stradsplace.com/photos/banghead.gif.gif

Well, here in Germany all "old" or "smart" people like the media were going nuts about young people meeting each other in the park last week. The result was a complete lockdown with severe fines.
But this was completely nonsense, we see a strong decline in numbers, lower right corner is infections per day:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc ... 327b2bf1d4
If you take the well known fact into account, that the numbers are 8 days behind the real infections, then the infection number decreases strongly since the companies started to put people into homeoffice and started hygienic measures. The decline started before schools were closed!

[kimetic]

Without a vaccine herd immunity is the only way it can develop. With a basic reproduction number of around 2.2 (R0, i.e. 2.2 people infected by each carrier), about 60% of the population have to have been infected and recovered, before the effective R0 drops below 1 at which point the epidemic will start to recede. So as has been said, we can only lurch to and fro, between economically unsustainable lockdown and further spread through the population.

It follows that if 'Young People' get it and recover without putting demand on the health services, and without passing it on to their older relatives, they are doing everyone a favour! Of course no-one likes the arithmetic, of the fatality rate among tens of millions of infected. And some of the young people will succumb, however few. But without that vaccine, 60% of us have to get it, in principle, and then it's a question of which of us, how heavily and in what shape, and how many all at once.

[SiLo]

That's going to be interesting if groups of idiots get together and then refuse to disperse. That's going need more than one or two police officers to sort out.

Our governor has issued a stay at home order but the millennials or what ever those 18 to 22 yr. olds are called, do whatever they want.
The local news here interviewed a young lady (17 or 19) gathered at the park with around 100 friends as part of a celebration. She told the reporter that A) "Can't catch the virus out in the open air, and B) They have a right to be there. http://www.stradsplace.com/photos/banghead.gif.gif

Can we stop perpetuating the idea that millenials are ignoring this stuff. Most millenials are 24 at minimum now and not doing this.

[DChemTech]

That's going to be interesting if groups of idiots get together and then refuse to disperse. That's going need more than one or two police officers to sort out.

Our governor has issued a stay at home order but the millennials or what ever those 18 to 22 yr. olds are called, do whatever they want.
The local news here interviewed a young lady (17 or 19) gathered at the park with around 100 friends as part of a celebration. She told the reporter that A) "Can't catch the virus out in the open air, and B) They have a right to be there. http://www.stradsplace.com/photos/banghead.gif.gif

Can we stop perpetuating the idea that millenials are ignoring this stuff. Most millenials are 24 at minimum now and not doing this.

GenZ is the proper term I think? But yeah, labels aside, there is a group of youngsters that are not too much bothered - but these groups exist throughout all age categories. Some youngsters still party, some 30ishers still cycle/yoga/bootcamp in groups, some 40ers still barbecue in the park, some 50+ walk the dog and gossip in groups, and predominantly 50-60+ seems to hoard...

[SiLo]

Our governor has issued a stay at home order but the millennials or what ever those 18 to 22 yr. olds are called, do whatever they want.
The local news here interviewed a young lady (17 or 19) gathered at the park with around 100 friends as part of a celebration. She told the reporter that A) "Can't catch the virus out in the open air, and B) They have a right to be there. http://www.stradsplace.com/photos/banghead.gif.gif

Can we stop perpetuating the idea that millenials are ignoring this stuff. Most millenials are 24 at minimum now and not doing this.

GenZ is the proper term I think? But yeah, labels aside, there is a group of youngsters that are not too much bothered - but these groups exist throughout all age categories. Some youngsters still party, some 30ishers still cycle/yoga/bootcamp in groups, some 40ers still barbecue in the park, some 50+ walk the dog and gossip in groups, and predominantly 50-60+ seems to hoard...

Correct, rather than label them due to their ages, which in the UK is a real issue, I'd rather just call them idiots.

[Brake Horse Power]

god it's really severe isn't it:

for at least 3 weeks

So UK is no longer going for the "herd immunity" strategy?

Singapore has re-opened its schools. I wonder how that will turn out. According to their government, there was no evidence the young was spreading the infections to the adults (it was mostly the adults infecting the young).

I think the herd immunity strategy is a bit misunderstood.

Here in the Netherlands, it was also announced as such - but a 'flatten the curve' strategy would be a more appropriate explanation. The underlying idea is that a full lock-down would perhaps lead to a near-eradication of cases, but could never be maintained in the long run - leading to an oscillatory outburst/lockdown strategy for a long time. Hence, the [social distancing/partial lockdown] option was chosen, intended to get a steady stream of infections (as they are not completely unavoidable), but not one that exceeds intensive care capacity. In essence, hit the sweet spot between keeping a somewhat liveable live and not overloading the healthcare system. An added benefit is that slowly herd immunity will emerge, but that's not the main objective. It would also be quite time-taking. In NL, we have about 1100 IC beds regularly - let's call it 2000 in times of crisis. With a typical IC residence time of 2 weeks for corona patients, that's 1000 patients that can be admitted each week. If about 6% of total cases would hit the IC and 50% of the country needs to be infected for herd immunity, that means 500k people will hit the IC - 500 weeks or 10 years for herd immunity. Even if we manage to significantly boost IC capacity, fewer cases would be admitted, and the residence time would be shorter, we're easily looking at 1-3 years or so.

Anyway, the 'added benefit' of herd immunity was emphasized too much and hence picked up by quite some people as the main objective, leading to confusion (should we get ill, then?) and even some people being more relaxed about measures because "we're not at risk, so better get our immunity in". They should never have mentioned it in the first place and just clearly told what it was about: not overloading the IC.

I wouldn't be surprised if our prime Minister changed its tone regarding herd immunization because of a legal basis. Not looking for conspiracy theories, but if you say we do herd immunization, you basically accept we will have casualties.

Since the approach hasn't really changed since than and you cannot expect that the virus will go away any time soon, it is still the herd immunization scenario. Flattening the curve won't help in the end I suppose unless we can cure people within a couple of months.